On January 27, the A-share market fluctuated and fell. The Shanghai index, Shenzhen Component Index and gem index fell by 1.78%, 2.77% and 3.25% respectively, and the Shanghai index fell below 3400 points. On the 27th, the net outflow of northbound funds exceeded 14 billion yuan, while the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds since January was 29.240 billion yuan.
Analysts said that after continuous adjustment, the market bad release is more sufficient, and the adjustment may be coming to an end. After full adjustment, the A-share market presents a very good investment value. Before the Spring Festival is a good layout time point, and the medium and long-term good trend of A-shares has not changed.
More than 4300 stocks fell
From the performance of individual stocks yesterday, the number of rising stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen was only 265, and the number of rising stocks was 18; The number of stocks falling was 4328, and the number of stocks falling by the limit was 109. The number of stocks falling by the limit reached a new high in nearly four months.
Shenwanyi industry fell across the board. The coal industry with the smallest decline fell by 0.41%, and the computer, media and mechanical equipment industries led the decline, falling by 5.27%, 3.82% and 3.77% respectively.
Data show that as of January 27, the total market value of A-Shares was 90.34 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.89 trillion yuan compared with the previous trading day.
As for the reasons for the decline of a shares, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, said that the statement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that “we do not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates at each interest rate meeting, and we need to shrink the table on a large scale” is more “hawkish” than market expectations, resulting in global market fluctuations.
Hu Po, manager of private placement network, said that the recent macroeconomic data were less than expected, and the correction of US stocks also had a certain impact on the market sentiment of a shares. Under the superposition of various negative factors, there has been a rapid correction in the stock market recently. In the long run, the overall market liquidity is still relatively abundant this year, and the probability of systemic risk is low.
capital outflow
In terms of capital, the data show that the net outflow of the main funds of the two cities was 34.046 billion yuan on January 27, which has been in the state of net outflow for 35 consecutive trading days. The number of stocks with net outflow of main funds was 3093, and 1526 stocks had net inflow.
From the perspective of the industry, the data showed that on the 27th, only the main capital of the banking industry had a net inflow of 443 million yuan, and other industries had a net outflow of main capital. The computer, electronic and power equipment industries ranked first in the net outflow of main funds, with a net outflow of 6.701 billion yuan, 3.811 billion yuan and 2.833 billion yuan respectively.
While the net outflow of main funds exceeded 30 billion yuan, the data showed a net outflow of 14.624 billion yuan from the north on the 27th. Among them, the net outflow of funds from Shanghai Stock connect was 7.724 billion yuan and that from Shenzhen Stock connect was 6.9 billion yuan. Since January, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has been reduced to 29.240 billion yuan.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the Fed’s interest rate hike in March is almost certain, and the pace of monetary easing exit will accelerate, triggering a negative resonance in the global equity market. Under the concern that the overseas market will continue to adjust during the Spring Festival, some A-share funds left the market ahead of schedule, resulting in the excessive release of negative sentiment in the market. The short-term adjustment of the market deviates from the trend of China’s monetary easing. The policy trend of the Federal Reserve will not affect China’s monetary policy, nor will it change the trend of foreign capital’s long-term allocation of a shares.
“market bottom” is gradually approaching
Since 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index have fallen by 6.75%, 9.82% and 12.52% respectively. Institutional people believe that emotional catharsis is coming to an end, and we should dare to make a positive layout.
Qin Peijing, chief strategist of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the “policy bottom” has been made clear. With the continuous improvement of the consensus on the main line of steady growth, the emotional venting is coming to an end. It is expected that the market capital will resume inflow, and the “market bottom” is gradually approaching. Investors are advised to stick to the main line of steady growth and lay out high-quality blue chips.
Hu Bo said that after full adjustment, the A-share market presents a good investment value. It is suggested that in the process of adjustment, we should dare to actively layout. It may be a better time point for layout before the Spring Festival.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) Zhang Xinyuan, chief strategist, believes that the current position of A-Shares is cost-effective, and the short-term disturbance does not change the medium and long-term trend. From the perspective of data analysis, whether it is the horizontal comparison of stock bond yield, the vertical calculation of the quantile of equity risk premium, or the calculation of the historical calendar effect before and after the Spring Festival, it shows that the current cost performance of A-Shares is high, and there is a high probability of repair after the Spring Festival. From the perspective of logical deduction, under the overweight of stable growth policy, A-Shares are expected to gradually usher in the bottom of valuation, sentiment and profit. In the second half of the year, the profit growth rate of listed companies is expected to rebound quarter by quarter, further supporting the trend repair of a shares. From the perspective of structural foundation, the transformation at the macro, meso and micro levels supports the medium and long-term slow bull trend of a shares.
