In the last week of the year of the ox, the Shanghai stock index fell sharply twice. On Tuesday, all major indexes fell by more than 2%, and basically closed at the lowest point. Less than 300 stocks in the two cities rose. Then, on Thursday, the Shanghai Stock Index fluctuated and fell again all day, falling behind the 3400 mark, and all sectors showed a downward trend. After a day, he rushed to the hot search again. A number of public funds took the lead in issuing self purchase announcements to boost market confidence.
Since yesterday, several head securities companies have voiced this round of market adjustment, saying that the market has ushered in the resonance of “market bottom” and “emotional bottom” before the festival, and there must be “agitation” after “squatting”, and they all look forward to the layout ideas after the festival.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : after the resonance between “emotional bottom” and “market bottom”, grasp the starting point of the market in the first half of the year
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the negative resonance of the global equity market has led to the excessive release of negative emotions of A-share investors, and the overshoot of A-share market under the resonance of “emotional bottom” and “market bottom”. This adjustment not only deviates from the trend of China’s monetary easing and long-term additional allocation of A-Shares by overseas funds, but also deviates from the expected improvement trend of fundamentals supported by policies. Moreover, after the policy exit path of the Federal Reserve was clear in the first half of the year, the sensitivity of US stocks and US bonds has been reduced after full response in the early stage, and the actual risk of overseas markets is expected to be small during the long holiday. under the resonance of “emotional bottom” and “market bottom”, A-Shares are short-term overshoot. It is suggested to actively grasp the starting point of the market in the first half of the year ; In terms of configuration, it is suggested to continue to follow the main line of “stable growth” and continue to layout high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions”.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : No “squat” or “restless” short-term disturbance, no change, medium and long-term improvement
After Tuesday’s sharp fall, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) strategy team said that under the catalysis of geopolitical factors, A-Shares showed significant risk-off, international geopolitical conflict was a “table”, and the intensification of risk avoidance demand before the long holiday was “Li” . The risk avoidance effect before the spring Festival has appeared many times since 2010, especially in the case of intensified fluctuations in US stocks this year. The “entanglement” between the short-term hedging demand of the market before the festival and the medium-term policy still exists. From the end of the festival to the window period of the two sessions, the short-term hedging repression is lifted, the strength of medium and long-term policies is expected to increase, and A-Shares are expected to rebound in stages after “squatting”. The layout of Pan electronic field is emphasized.
After Thursday’s sharp decline, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) made a voice again, saying that the recent A-share adjustment can be due to investors’ excessive concern about the policy range and effectiveness of stable growth . It reiterated that with the increase of the post holiday stable growth policy, the A-share valuation is expected to pick up, and the A-share profit growth in the second half of the year is expected to pick up quarter by quarter, further supporting the trend repair of A-shares.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : the conditions for counterattack have been met, and A-Shares can be gradually optimistic
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) in the latest research report, it is pointed out that from the macro perspective of economic growth, external policies, capital flow and relative allocation value, the allocation value of A-Shares after adjustment begins to appear and can be gradually optimistic. China’s economy is at the bottom stage. Under the tone of steady growth, whether it is the total growth rate or the industrial structure, continuous improvement on the margin is a high probability event. Looking forward to 2022, even if there are short-term disturbances due to interest rate spread and exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain in a strong range, the interest rate spread between China and the United States is still above 50bp, China’s leading companies continue to grow and strengthen, and the general trend of foreign capital flowing into A-Shares will not change. In addition, this year, although the real estate industry is expected to stabilize and rebound on the basis of last year’s downturn, the probability of rapid and sharp rise in house prices is still small, and A-Shares will continue to enjoy the alternative dividend in 2022.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : the short-term bottom has been formed, and the rebound after the festival is expected
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) technically, it is said that in the case of continuous decline in the market, there is limited room for further decline . Similar to the end of July 2021, at present, the Shanghai stock index also shows a “single peak density” of chips, with chips between 3300 and 3700 accounting for about 94% of the total chips. Among them, the chips above today’s closing point (3394 points) are about 89%, means that nearly 90% of the chips in the whole market have been “locked up” . Referring to the situation at the end of July 2021, the momentum of further killing of the market in the current position will be significantly weakened.
Thus, it comes to the conclusion that the short-term bottom of has been formed, and the rebound after the festival is expected. We continue to recommend securities companies and zhonggai Internet. before and after the Spring Festival is an additional time. Considering the continuous decline of the current market and the more defensive market style, the brokerage sector that can attack and retreat is the relatively optimal choice, and the configuration value of Zhonggu Internet in the “second bottom” stage will also reappear.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : regain confidence, rational shareholding for the holiday
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) the research report believes that the market’s concern about the global monetary tightening and the general decline of the global stock market are the main reasons for the recent gloom. The reaction of the Chinese market is more based on the collective pessimism on the emotional side. At the same time, the decline of the Spring Festival holiday and the contraction of trading also reduce the market sentiment. On the other hand, the tone of China’s overall broad credit and broad currency has not changed. There is plenty of room for stimulus policy. Maintaining patience and regaining confidence may be what we should do at present. in terms of operation, it is recommended to avoid excessive pessimism, rationally hold shares, expect the repair market after the festival, move less and look more, try to layout highly defensive sectors, and avoid blind bottom reading .
Anxin Securities: “intelligence” is the preferred industrial track direction of A-Shares in 2022
The strategy team of Anxin securities recently reiterated that in 2022, investment opportunities will shift from most companies in most links of the industrial chain in 2021 to a few companies in a few links. And firmly believe that “intelligence” is the next round of configuration direction bred after the differentiation of the high boom and high valuation track represented by “Ning portfolio”, which will become the preferred industrial track direction of A-Shares in 2022. Anxin strategy emphasizes the layout of “one body and two wings” of intelligent industrial track, with intelligent automobile industrial chain as the main body, intelligent manufacturing equipment (smart grid industrial chain, military industrial chain, AR / VR, intelligent numerical control, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ) and digital economy (network security, digital twin (including meta universe) and industrial Internet) as the two wings .
In the market, there are other fund institutions such as Boshi fund, Shanghai Pudong Bank AXA fund and Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund, which are optimistic about the continuation of the structural market of a shares. The institution as a whole is optimistic about the main growth line of high valuation flexibility supported by post holiday monetary policy and loose liquidity. For those who “hold shares for the holiday”, the short-term bottom of the market before the holiday can be regarded as an additional window to obtain income after the holiday.
