The A-share market may still be worth looking forward to when shareholders increase their holdings and increase their positions through public offering.
Today is the last trading day before the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger. Should we hold shares or coins for the festival? This is a more tangled problem. In this market, it is a bit “slap in the face” to talk about the shareholding holiday, but investors have more urgent expectations for the market to return to strength after the holiday.
global stock markets sharply corrected
Under the deterministic expectation of “Hawk interest rate hike”, the peripheral stock market maintained a volatile situation. As the world’s second largest capital market, A-Shares were dragged down.
Since 2022, as of January 27, the Nikkei 225 index fell 9.1%, the Russian RTS index fell 14.19%, and the US Dow Jones index fell nearly 6%, the highest level in nearly 22 months. In the A-share market, the Shanghai stock index fell 6.75%, the gem index fell 12.52%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell nearly 10%. The net outflow of funds from northbound on January 27 was 14.624 billion yuan, the highest level since August 2020.
Looking at the prospect of securities companies, most institutions believe that the post holiday market is more optimistic and actively suggest “holding shares for the new year”; However, some institutions believe that the current market situation is still uncertain, especially under the background of relatively volatile peripheral stock markets, they believe that growth stocks will return again, and some are optimistic about the blue chip market.
holding a holiday or still having a “red envelope”
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, in the past decade, the probability of rising on the 5th day after the Spring Festival is 70% , but it shows a downward trend on the 5th day after the Spring Festival in 2020 and 2021. It is worth mentioning that the cumulative increase in the five days before the Spring Festival in 2021 is high, close to 4%; In 2018, the decline was more than 5% on the 5th day before the festival and increased by 1.88% on the 5th day after the festival. Moreover, before the 2018 Spring Festival, the funds going north also showed a net outflow or small inflow, which is very similar to the current market. According to the data characteristics and the awesome performance of US stock last night, we believe we can increase the horse power of A shares after the Spring Festival.
The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below 3400 points, returning to the level at the end of 2020. In the falling market, the behaviors of increasing holdings, repurchase and increasing positions of public offering giants followed one after another. In the past, there was China Europe medical Glenn, and then there were six public fund giants, including huifutian, e fund and GF, which purchased more than 500 million in total. All these reflect their confidence in the long-term stable and healthy development of China’s capital market.
During the Spring Festival over the years, all major platforms have launched some financial products, such as reverse repurchase of national debt, fixed income +, monetary fund, etc. the advantages are low risk and high stability, but the disadvantages are obvious, the yield is low, and some fixed income + financial products have a very long term, which is not suitable for short-term financial management.
doubled shares are mainly concentrated in chemical, electronic and other industries
The sluggish start has made many investors lose confidence, but some stocks still rose against the trend and even rose by the limit. There is no lack of theme stocks and some low-cost high-quality stocks. Relevant people believe that the Spring Festival market is still worth looking forward to, whether from the perspective of macroeconomic and liquidity environment, or from the perspective of the relative cost performance of the current stock market valuation.
According to the statistics of data treasure, as of January 27, nearly 1500 A-share listed companies disclosed the performance forecast of 2021 annual report, 97 shares issued the performance express of 2021 annual report, and only three companies disclosed the annual report, with a performance forecast rate of more than 70%.
Among the performance prediction companies, according to the statistics of the expected net profit growth (including the median forecast), a total of 568 companies have a net profit growth of more than 100%. There are 35 companies with an increase of more than 10 times, Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) is expected to have the highest increase in net profit, and the company expects the median increase in net profit for the whole year to be 7593.73%; Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) it is estimated that the median year-on-year growth rate of annual net profit is 7169.15% and 6825.50% respectively, ranking the second and third.
By industry, the doubled performance stocks are mainly concentrated in basic chemical, electronic, mechanical equipment and other industries, with 121, 71 and 46 stocks on the list respectively. In terms of the increase of net profit of the industry, the average increase of net profit of household appliances in 2021 is close to 400%. Since the rise of cyclical industries, the average increase of net profit of four industries such as chemical industry, mining and non-ferrous metals in 2021 is more than 200%; The net profit of communication, media, computer and other industries fell seriously.
12 agencies get together to double the rating performance
The closing price of reached the bottom of 2021
Further statistics show that among the above performance doubled stocks, the latest closing price fell to the bottom since 2021, and there are 12 companies with more than five rating agencies. Including Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , etc. Among them, Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) and others have also obtained additional positions of northbound funds since the beginning of the year. Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) the median increase in net profit in 2021 exceeded 5 times.
Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) have been rated by more than 20 institutions. In terms of market performance, the average decline of the above 12 shares was more than 15%, Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) fell more than 30%, Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) and other 2 shares fell more than 20%, Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) fell the lowest, close to 7%.
