Today (January 28), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board and plunged back rapidly at the beginning of the session. With the rebound of popular stocks and the concerted rise of theme stocks, the gem index stabilized and rose. The Shanghai index and Shenzhen Component Index rose with the rise, and A-Shares walked out of the V-shaped trend in the morning. From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors rose more or fell less, the holiday effect became powerful, A-Shares "celebrated the new year" ahead of schedule, the "eat, drink and have fun" market broke out, and the local profit-making effect soared.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that it is difficult to analyze the current market trend with technology, so we need to pay attention to the stabilization of the emotional side. The positive aspect is that the sound of stability has increased recently, and institutions have increased their holdings of their own funds, which is a good signal for the current market. On the whole, opportunities fall out and risks rise out. We still need to keep our concentration and look for certain opportunities in uncertainty.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] tourist hotel
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that the digital transformation of the cultural tourism industry has accelerated, and iterative innovation has been reborn. The baptism of the epidemic forced the text travel industry to accelerate the digital transformation, generate new formats in combination with the new online economy, and develop immersive, one-stop and personalized tourism products. Rural tourism and ice and snow tourism are different from traditional tourism forms. They have a broad market and great development potential, and may become a new increment of the tourism industry in the future. In order to cope with the consumption change after the epidemic, cultural and tourism products need to carry out effective iterative innovation, improve service quality, accumulate a lot and wait for the complete recovery of the cultural and tourism industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that for the hotel industry, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth. Since this year, although several rounds of epidemics have led to the recovery rhythm of the industry lower than expected, the leading enterprises continue to open stores rapidly, the single hotels continue to be cleared, and the logic of supply pattern optimization continues to be verified. Looking forward to 2022, China's hotel chain rate and industry concentration still have great room for improvement compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading stores against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end. The improvement of the epidemic in Europe is also expected to reduce the drag of overseas business on performance.
In addition, for tourism and scenic spots, the recovery trend remains unchanged, or there are opportunities for reversal. With several rounds of epidemic disturbance since June, the recovery progress of China's tourism has shown a trend of high before and low after. Inter provincial travel and long-distance travel are still subject to many restrictions of epidemic prevention policies, and the performance of sector companies is generally under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, even if the demand side fluctuation is still inevitable, we still maintain confidence in the recovery trend. At the same time, the change of epidemic prevention policy is expected to ferment, which is also expected to give birth to the reversal opportunity of the sector market ahead of the fundamentals.
Dongguan Securities said that in the short term, the industry will still be disturbed by the scattered epidemic, but China's strict prevention attitude towards covid-19 virus can effectively control the spread of the virus. There is no need to be too pessimistic about covid-19 virus and its variants. With the improvement of covid-19 vaccination and the development of therapeutic drugs, the trend of covid-19 influenza will not change, The leisure service industry is expected to recover slowly in 2022. In the long run, the epidemic forced the industry to reshuffle and reduce supply. Under the action of demand recovery after the epidemic was basically controlled, the prosperity of the industry is expected to accelerate. []
[Theme 2] cultural media
Wanlian Securities pointed out that the National Day file "Changjin Lake" has a strong force, and the sequel of the Spring Festival in 2022 has set the tone of the box office. Since the beginning of 2021, each holiday schedule has been the best in history. As the heaviest schedule every year, the box office of the Spring Festival has been rising for many years, and has set a new schedule record, becoming a place for head films. Last year, "Hello, Li Huanying" became the first 5 billion + film in the Spring Festival, ranking third at the box office in film history. This year, led by a number of head films, the overall box office will show an upward trend, or help the Spring Festival in 2022 surpass that in 2021 to become the strongest Spring Festival. At the same time, the epidemic will accelerate industry integration, and the leading companies will benefit significantly after the industry is cleared, especially in low-level cities. The largest increase in the number of film viewers in the sinking market also reflects the market potential of the low-line market. In addition, the policy clearly stated that it would launch a series of supportive policies. Based on policy support + fixed growth and integration measures of leading companies, the industry fundamentals have been improved. The box office continues to pick up + market share increases + business efficiency improves. We can pay attention to the head cinema and core producers.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) also said that the film sector is about to usher in the Spring Festival: the shuimen bridge of Changjin lake has recently been set for the first day of the new year. As a derivative sequel of China's highest box office film, the release of "shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake" is expected to further boost the demand for film viewing during the holidays. In addition to "shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake", the spring festival film market also has films covering various themes, including "miracle stupid child", "Four Seas", "the killer is not too calm", "sniper" and "bear haunt" series animated films that can create good box office results over the years. Up to now, the pre-sale box office of the Spring Festival has been close to 130 million yuan, showing a pattern of one super and many strong as a whole. Referring to the trend of "Celebrating the new year on the spot" in 2021, the Spring Festival has reached a record high. We believe that the "Celebrating the new year on the spot" mode continued in 2022 is also expected to create better box office results, but the repeated epidemic in some parts of China may have a certain negative impact. []
[Theme 3] prefabricated dishes
East Asia Qianhai Securities said that it is currently in the peak season of annual goods preparation, and the prefabricated vegetable sector has ushered in a bright performance. Near the Spring Festival, the major takeout and online platforms have ushered in the peak of customization of prefabricated dishes. At the same time, under the current epidemic situation, many places have launched local new year initiatives. Under the joint influence of the fast-paced lifestyle and the severe epidemic situation, the demand for home cooking during the spring Festival is rising, which promotes the strong demand for prefabricated dishes.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the lazy house economy promotes the rapid development of the prefabricated vegetable industry. Chinese households are increasingly dependent on industrialized food production and socialized food supply. Prefabricated dishes simplify the cumbersome steps of buying, washing, cutting and cooking, integrate quality, nutrition and taste, and cater to the lifestyle of young consumers in a fast-paced life. In 2021, the space scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next 3-5 years, China's Prefabricated food industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that prefabricated dishes are booming and the advent of the Spring Festival has brought about a rise in investment sentiment. The related targets of "prefabricated dishes" in A-Shares are mainly Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , and also involve Xi'An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) . The main targets of Hong Kong stocks are Haidilao (dominated by the layout of Shuhai) / Yihai international, yum China-s, Xiabu, Xiabu, etc, The finished dishes of jiumaojiu C-end customers are relatively few.
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[theme 4] retail
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that in the early spring festival, the attention of the retail sector increased significantly. In addition to Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) on the theme of digital payment, Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) on the theme of customized wine and prefabricated dishes also showed a strong trend this week, with a wave of significant independent market. With the Spring Festival approaching, the market has high enthusiasm for the retail sector, which reflects the lack of hot spots in the market as a whole and the enthusiasm of theme speculation. On the one hand, from the perspective of fundamentals, the growth rate of social consumption in December 2021 is still in the bottom consolidation stage; On the other hand, the market's expectation of policy stimulating consumption is relatively high. Therefore, we believe that the overall market is dominated by theme and supplemented by fundamental improvement expectation. We suggest investors to invest cautiously and rationally.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that due to the decline in the demand for hoarding mandatory consumer goods in the post epidemic period and the impact of business forms such as community group purchase, the performance of the supermarket sector has been under significant pressure since the second half of 2020, but after more than a year of adjustment, the overall valuation level of the sector has been in the historical quantile of 30% since 2018. At present, on the one hand, benefiting from the peak consumption season of the Spring Festival / CPI, it is expected to rise moderately in the short term, which will boost the performance of the same store. On the other hand, the impact of the adjustment of community group purchase format on supermarkets has weakened. In addition, the theme of prefabricated dishes that the current market is more concerned about is expected to boost the sentiment of the sector: supermarket enterprises extend upstream with the help of the perfect central kitchen system, and actively promote the construction of their own brands in the field of fresh and cooked food with the help of consumer data naturally owned by retail channels, so as to share the development opportunities of the prefabricated dish market. []
