Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the advent of the Spring Festival has brought about a rise in investment sentiment. Combing the related targets of "prefabricated dishes" of A-Shares
Prefabricated dishes are booming, and the coming of the Spring Festival has brought about a rise in investment sentiment. The related targets of "prefabricated dishes" in A-Shares are mainly Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , and also involve Xi'An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) . The main targets of Hong Kong shares are Haidilao (mainly Shu Hai layout) / Yihai international, yum China-s, Xiabu Xiabu, etc., and there are relatively few finished dishes for jiumaojiu C-end customers.
In 2022, we propose to select stocks from two dimensions: the relative certainty of recovery and the logical change of the middle line: Based on the first half of 2022 (the next 3-6 months), based on the uncertainty of repeated short-term epidemic and the positive expectation of stabilization of the middle line epidemic, we slightly repeat the Soviet logic on the basis of the logical change of the middle line, take into account the performance, valuation and theme, and optimize Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) Hellens, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , jiumaojiu, Huazhu group -s, yum China, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , etc.
Based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, we suggest to continue to be based on the high-quality leader of the boom sub circuit, and focus on China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , hellens, Huazhu group-s, Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , jiumaojiu, yum China-s, Haidilao, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Naixue's tea, etc. []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : Prefabricated dishes have the dual catalysis of Spring Festival and epidemic situation! It is estimated that the scale will exceed 400 billion yuan in 2026
Prefabricated dishes have the dual catalysis of Spring Festival and epidemic situation, ushering in the tuyere period. This year, many people choose to "celebrate the new year on the spot" during the Spring Festival, and the sales of online and offline prefabricated dishes for new year's Eve dinner are booming. According to the data of an offline hemamen store in Shenzhen, the sales growth rate of prefabricated vegetables this year reached more than three digits. According to the person in charge of tmall food's Prefabricated dishes industry, as of January 10 this year, the sales volume of prefabricated dishes has doubled, and the most popular dishes are signature dishes and family banquet package products. The chain rate of catering has continued to improve, and new business forms such as takeout and group meals have developed rapidly. The demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement has promoted the penetration of prefabricated dishes at the b-end, the consumption upgrading has superimposed the epidemic catalysis, and the demand at the C-end has been gradually opened.
Prefabricated dishes have become one of the fastest growing sub industries of the food industry, and are in the early stage of rapid development, with broad industry space. According to the statistics of ncbd, the market scale of China's Prefabricated vegetable industry was about 252.7 billion yuan in 2020, and the CAGR from 2015 to 2020 was 31.2%. At present, there are 72000 enterprises related to prefabricated dishes in China, and more than 50% of them were established after 2015. We expect the scale to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound growth rate of 15%.
In the short term, we need to pay attention to the risk of overheating, the long-term growth trend is clear, and the stocks that can contribute to the performance are preferred. With strong momentum and low industry threshold, the prefabricated vegetable industry has attracted many types of participants, and the competition pattern is extremely scattered. Participants are mainly divided into five types: 1) professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises: they have been deeply engaged in the industry for many years, understand channel demands, focus on popular cuisines, and have rich product categories. 2) Agricultural, animal husbandry and Fishery Enterprises: they have the advantages of raw materials and cost, strong quality control and R & D, and can increase the profits of the company after extending to make prefabricated dishes. 3) Traditional quick-frozen Enterprises: have brand awareness, strong ability to create standard products, channel distribution and cold chain logistics. 4) Catering enterprises: offline stores have a strong brand foundation, most of which are their own signature dishes or hard dishes, and the dishes have a high degree of reduction. 5) Retail enterprises: they have accumulated deep consumer preference big data to help precision marketing.
We believe that traditional quick-frozen food enterprises are more likely to become national leaders and give full play to the potential energy of single products. Professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises plough deep into the region and can become small and beautiful enterprises. For the upstream agricultural, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises, prefabricated dishes are a rare window of business transformation. If the product power advantage is prominent and the b-end and C-end distribution channels are quickly established, the dark horse enterprise may be born. However, the prefabricated food industry is in its infancy and may face the risk of overheating in the short term. Some listed companies have just started to set foot in the prefabricated food industry, and their contribution to the performance is not high in a short time. At present, it is in the leading stage of market expectation. It is suggested to focus on the outstanding product strength, have a certain brand foundation, and quickly establish BC end distribution channels in combination with the industry trend. In the future, the prefabricated vegetable business can form a certain volume of individual stocks. It is recommended to focus on Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) . At the same time, you can pay attention to Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Longda food, Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) . []
East Asia Qianhai Securities: Prefabricated vegetables meet the peak in the peak season of annual sales, and new stars in the catering industry grow rapidly
At present, it is in the peak season of annual goods preparation, and the prefabricated vegetable sector has ushered in a bright performance. Near the Spring Festival, the major takeout and online platforms have ushered in the peak of customization of prefabricated dishes. At the same time, under the current epidemic situation, many places have launched local new year initiatives. Under the joint influence of the fast-paced lifestyle and the severe epidemic situation, the demand for home cooking during the spring Festival is rising, which promotes the strong demand for prefabricated dishes.
Prefabricated dishes are one of the rising stars in the field of food processing and catering. The trend of gradually increasing the chain rate and standardization rate of the catering industry will continue to provide a broad development space for the field of prefabricated dishes. In recent years, the fast-moving pace of life in the first and second tier cities, the continuous innovation and progress of technology in the fields of housing economy and cold chain logistics have ushered in a good opportunity for the development of prefabricated dishes. Compared with developed countries such as the United States and Japan, the field of prefabricated vegetables in China started relatively late. It was not until about 2000 that prefabricated vegetables enterprises mainly producing semi-finished vegetables appeared, and their initial development was limited by backward technologies such as cold chain and quick freezing. With the continuous progress of cold chain, quick freezing and other technologies in China's catering industry and the demand of the catering industry to improve the chain rate, prefabricated vegetable enterprises can continuously reduce costs, break regional restrictions and usher in broad development space.
At present, in the b-end catering industry, prefabricated dishes can help catering enterprises effectively save labor costs, time costs, kitchen area, etc. At the same time, the use of prefabricated dishes can help catering enterprises solve the problem of inconsistent taste of chain catering, which is of great help to improve the chain rate and standardization rate of the current catering industry. On the C-side, the repeated impact of the epidemic and people's increasingly fast pace of life have significantly increased the demand for prefabricated dishes under the demand of consumers for home cooking. At present, the market concentration of the prefabricated food industry is low. In the future, under the condition that the leading enterprises of prefabricated food continue to improve product quality, meet the diversified needs of products, expand market share and improve the concentration, it is expected to continue to accelerate the development at the B and C ends, and boost the chain rate and standardization rate of the catering industry, Catering enterprises with prefabricated vegetable business layout are also expected to show more brilliant performance.
Related targets of catering industry: Haidilao, Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , Xi'An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) . []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : five major players in the prefabricated vegetable industry pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the standardization of catering supply chain
China has ushered in a node where the proportion of foreign food has accelerated, and the demand for catering convenience and safety has increased. We are optimistic about the standardization opportunities in all links of the catering supply chain. The proportion of external food on the demand side accelerated, and the requirements for catering convenience and safety increased; The demand for cost reduction at the supply side is strong. The chain and national expansion need the support of modern supply chain. The resonance of supply and demand catalyzes the standardization of catering supply chain. There is room for Standardization in all links of China's catering supply chain, including upstream agriculture, midstream food manufacturing, downstream catering and circulation.
There are mainly five types of players in the prefabricated vegetable industry, with different advantages and challenges: 1) professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises: they have strong product development ability and certain channel advantages, but their locality is obvious, representing the enterprise's Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) revenue scale of 620 million yuan in 2020 and cagr20 million yuan in 2016-2020 4%。 2) Quick frozen Enterprises: the business extends horizontally. The supply chain layout of leading scale procurement, land sales capacity, cold chain transportation and channel resources can be reused, or can realize nationalization faster. They also face the challenges brought by the increase of SKU. For example, the scale of dish products in Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) 2020 is 670 million yuan, and the CAGR from 2017 to 2020 is 30.5%. 3) Agricultural enterprises: the raw material side has natural advantages, and the channel resources of the head agricultural enterprises are reusable. There is a high probability of being a leader in the field of conditioned meat products. Product development and marketing are challenges, and overseas successful representatives such as Tyson. 4) Catering enterprises: they can empower their own catering business and supplement income. They have the advantages of brand endorsement and store channels, and are expected to form business collaboration. However, there is a scale threshold for vertical integration. At present, the prefabricated vegetable business of head catering enterprises is mostly in the initial stage. 5) Retail enterprises: private brands focus on the needs of family convenience and delicacy, and products mainly rely on the integration of supplier resources.
We are optimistic that the proportion of foreign food in China will continue to increase, and suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities brought by the standardization of catering supply chain. For the catering market of prefabricated dishes, we believe that the first four types of enterprises have opportunities. Among them, professional prefabricated dish enterprises can finely meet the needs of local small and medium-sized catering, takeout, group meals, rural kitchens and hotels. It is recommended to pay attention to Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ; The leading supply chain capacity of quick-frozen enterprises can be reused. It is suggested to pay attention to Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) and so on; Agricultural enterprises have obvious advantages in the field of conditioning meat products; Catering enterprises are more optimistic about chain brands that can form positive synergy with their own catering business and cross the threshold of scale.
open source Securities: the popularity of prefabricated vegetable track continues to increase, and supermarket enterprises compete to layout
In recent years, the popularity of prefabricated dishes has continued to increase. Near the Spring Festival in 2022, the demand and attention have increased significantly under the stimulation of "local Chinese New Year". From the demand side, the prefabricated dishes can meet the large purchase volume, strong planning, high timeliness and cost sensitive needs of customers such as takeout, group meal and rural kitchen at the B end, and can meet the dual needs of young workers for convenience and delicacy at the C end.
From the supply side, taking the supermarket channel as an example, its prefabricated dishes mainly come from professional food manufacturers and private brands. At present, China's professional food manufacturers include not only listed companies such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , but also start-up companies such as Zhenwei xiaomeiyuan, xuweishi and wangjiadu. Supermarkets are an important channel for them to reach C-end customers.
In terms of supermarket enterprises, some supermarkets in Europe and America (Sam's club store, etc.) have earlier practiced and created their own brands of prefabricated dishes. In recent years, supermarkets such as HEMA and Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) in China have also begun to layout this business. For example, through the brand "HEMA workshop", HEMA provides five categories of clean vegetables, seasoned meat, processed meat, semi-finished products and prefabricated vegetables around the needs of three meals a day, and uses the full temperature layer system all over the country to achieve "30 minutes"; The traditional supermarket leader Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) focuses on the self built central kitchen to improve the quality and operation efficiency of prefabricated vegetables from the aspects of raw materials, processing, transportation and sales. For supermarket enterprises, on the one hand, the layout of prefabricated vegetable business can bring opportunities for the growth of store passenger flow and the improvement of the added value of fresh products. On the other hand, it also brings challenges in many business links such as formula research and development, finished product production, sales and storage. []
Huafu Securities: the concept of prefabricated dishes is popular and has a broad market space in the future
China's takeout industry began to flourish in 2014. In 2020, the epidemic gave birth to household consumption demand, and prefabricated dishes gradually extended from tob to TOC. According to the industry history of some developed countries, the scale of China's Prefabricated vegetable industry exceeds 200 billion yuan. At present, the industry is still in the early stage of penetration, and its growth is expected to accelerate in the future. The proportion of prefabricated vegetables in the revenue of Companies in the industry is generally not high, and the business development space is broad. []
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : in the next 3-5 years, China's Prefabricated vegetable industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market
Lazy house economy promotes the rapid development of prefabricated vegetable industry. Chinese households are increasingly dependent on industrialized food production and socialized food supply. Prefabricated dishes simplify the cumbersome steps of buying, washing, cutting and cooking, integrate quality, nutrition and taste, and cater to the lifestyle of young consumers in a fast-paced life. In 2021, the space scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next 3-5 years, China's Prefabricated food industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market.
At present, local epidemics occur occasionally in China, and the frequency of family meals increases. Prefabricated vegetable bags have gradually become a necessity for isolated life at home. Chinese food industrialization and standardized production demand drive the expansion of b-end market of prefabricated dishes. Prefabricated dishes replace the processing of food materials and cooking of dishes in the back kitchen. The standardized production process can ensure the stable taste of dishes. While reducing costs, food enterprises can avoid cumbersome food material processing process, improve the floor efficiency of restaurants and improve the overall profitability. The increase of takeout penetration rate and the change of family structure promote the increase of C-end sales of prefabricated dishes. The explosive growth of takeout not only introduces a steady stream of passenger flow and orders into the catering industry, but also improves the convenience requirements. The decline of young people's enthusiasm for studying cooking and the rise of women's enrollment rate and employment rate have significantly reduced the time spent by households in the kitchen compared with the previous decade. Prefabricated dishes that can ensure the taste of dishes have become the first choice for family cooking. Suggestions: 1) specialized manufacturer of prefabricated vegetables: Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ; 2) Involved in semi-finished food and beverage enterprises: Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ; 3) Enterprises with food manufacturing business: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Longda food. []
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : lazy house economy promotes the rapid development of prefabricated vegetable industry
The lazy house economy promotes the rapid development of the prefabricated food industry. Because the prefabricated food caters to the lifestyle of young consumer groups under the fast-paced life, it has become one of the fastest-growing sub industries in the food processing industry in recent five years. The driving factors for the development of prefabricated vegetable industry: 1) the increase of residents' income and the reconstruction of family consumption scene. Economic development has brought about changes in residents' dietary structure, increased consumption of food materials and improved consumers' purchasing power of prefabricated vegetables.
2) the industrialization of catering enterprises drives the expansion of prefabricated vegetable market. Affected by the epidemic in the past two years, many small individual restaurants have closed due to difficulties such as cash flow shortage, inventory backlog and local epidemic control. The scale and brand effect of chain catering enterprises have enhanced their ability to deal with risks. Under the heavy pressure, the chain catering rate in China has increased to 10.9%.
3) strengthen the ability of cold chain logistics distribution and drive the development of the industry. The storage time of prefabricated dishes can be greatly extended and the freshness of dishes can be maintained as much as possible. Under the cold chain logistics distribution system, semi-finished vegetable enterprises expand the distribution scope, improve the product distribution efficiency, and expand the market coverage while ensuring food safety.
