Looking forward to, looking forward to, the rebound of A-Shares has finally come.
In early trading today, the three major A-share indexes staged a V-shaped reversal trend, and the gem index led the upward attack. As of midday closing, the Shanghai composite index reported 3396.07 points, up 0.05%; The Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index rose 0.53% and 1.44% respectively.
Morning trading performance of major A-share indexes
The level of individual stocks is red across the board. By midday, 3714 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen had risen, accounting for more than 80%. Among them, 994 stocks on the gem rose, accounting for 90%.
A shares rose or fell in the morning, and the number of individual stocks
The index and individual stocks rebounded across the board
At the opening of today’s trading, the three major A-share indexes collectively opened higher, but since then, affected by market inertia and capital sentiment, the index fell and turned green one after another.
At about 10:30, the market ushered in a turnaround. The new energy sector took the lead in hitting the bottom and launching a counterattack. The share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with a trillion market value recovered the integer mark of 600 yuan and set a new high within the day. Popular stocks such as Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) also rose rapidly, and the decline of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) approaching the limit in early trading also converged significantly.
Driven by the new energy sector, the gem index took the lead in turning red, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai composite index followed up. It can be seen that as of the noon close, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) and other new energy leading stock prices have set the early high, laying the tone for the continued strength in the afternoon.
More importantly, this rebound is not only focused on a few sectors or index levels, but also benefited most stocks. As of midday closing, 3714 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen had gained, accounting for more than 80%. Among them, 994 stocks on the gem rose, accounting for more than 90%.
four indicators show that the market adjustment is coming to an end
In the view of the industry, the A-share market suffered turbulence at the beginning of the year, which was disturbed by overseas factors such as the expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the fact that the incremental funds in the Chinese market were less than expected. However, after continuous adjustment, the negative release of the market has been relatively sufficient, and the adjustment may be coming to an end.
Recently, the China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) strategy team released a report that four indicators indicate that the market adjustment is coming to an end.
indicator 1: fund issuance is picking up, and the scale of self purchase has increased significantly
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) according to the calculation, the fund issuance has been picking up since late January. From January 17 to 25, partial stock funds issued 61.9 billion yuan, with a total of 89.2 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, basically returning to the normal level, which will provide incremental funds for the market.
At the same time, the self purchase scale of funds has also increased significantly recently. In December 2021, partial stock funds purchased 523 million yuan, a new high since July 2015; Since January 2022, it has purchased 425 million yuan again, which is also at a high level in recent years. From the perspective of fund managers, the current market is also at the bottom.
Fund indicators have warmed up
indicator 2: the basis of stock index futures begins to converge
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that hedging products have performed poorly since the fourth quarter of 2021. The poor performance of hedge funds led to product redemption, resulting in the weakening of short hedging power of stock index futures, which has become an important reason for the continuous convergence or even positive basis of stock index futures since September 2021.
However, this week, the positive basis of CSI 300 and CSI 500 stock index futures converged significantly, and the sell to buy ratio of CSI 300 futures rebounded again, which may indicate that the pressure from quantitative capital deleveraging has been significantly released.
Repair of hedging force of stock index futures
indicator 3: the congestion of popular tracks has dropped significantly
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that from the perspective of congestion index, the current congestion of popular tracks represented by the “new half army” (new energy, semiconductor and military industry) has fallen to a low level, and the pressure from transaction congestion and capital position adjustment has been fully released.
Combined with various congestion indicators, in the “new half army”, the congestion level of the new energy sector has dropped significantly, and most of the congestion indicators have been significantly lower than the lower threshold; The congestion degree of semiconductor sector has also been greatly reduced, and the congestion index has been lower than or close to the lower threshold; The trading congestion of the military industry sector has also dropped significantly compared with the previous period, and most indicators have also dropped to above and below the average.
Trading congestion in the new energy sector fell
indicator 4: the put / call ratio of S & P 500 options fell
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that since the beginning of the year, the Fed’s concern about raising interest rates and the sharp rise of US bond interest rates have led to the sharp decline of US stocks, especially US technology stocks and overvalued white horses, and once triggered concerns in the Chinese market. For U.S. stocks, after the recent sharp decline, the trading volume ratio of S & P 500 put options to call options has dropped significantly, indicating that the adjustment of U.S. stocks may be coming to an end.
In addition to the four bottoming signals issued by China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities firmly shouted the slogan of “adding positions for the new year”.
After hours yesterday, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) macro chief analyst Dong Qi and Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) strategy chief analyst Chen Xianshun jointly released a report, saying that the intensive negative impact at the denominator end, the lack of confidence at the numerator end and the superposition of pre holiday trading level disturbances are the reasons for the continuous adjustment of the pre holiday market.
Looking forward to the Spring Festival, on the one hand, the positive factors will be gradually revised upward. With the successive convening of the local two sessions, the policy of “steady growth” will be accelerated and put into force, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the molecular end after the year; On the other hand, negative factors will accelerate convergence. At present, the market is gradually pricing the changes in overseas liquidity expectations. The negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations years ago is being accelerated, and the negative factors at the denominator end are accelerating convergence.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) stressed that the short-term risk appetite of investors has been at a low level recently, and the downward space is limited. We should strengthen our confidence and look at the post holiday market of A-Shares optimistically.
