On January 28, the Shanghai stock index rebounded in the morning in a V-shaped way, rose briefly in the afternoon and then fell all the way. It was interpreted all day“ И” Type trend.
As of the close, the Shanghai stock index fell 0.97% and the gem index rose 0.08%, both fell more than 4% this week and fell 7.65% and 12.45% respectively in January.
Today is also the last trading day of the year of the A-share bull. Throughout the year of the ox, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by nearly 8%, the Shenzhen composite index fell by more than 16%, and the gem index fell by nearly 15%.
Analysts believe that the recent market risks have been fully released. February will usher in a safe window before the centralized disclosure of performance reports. Considering the time of credit supply, A-Shares are expected to rebound in February. Some institutions believe that February will be the best market entry stage in the first half of this year.
Stock index on the closing day of the year of the ox“ И” Trend
On January 28, the Shanghai composite index showed an overall trend“ И” Type trend, the disk fluctuates greatly. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.53% and the gem index rose 0.08%.
On the disk, coal, Baijiu, automobile and semiconductor sectors were adjusted, of which Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell nearly 4%, Byd Company Limited(002594) fell 6%, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) and so on. Duty free shops, agriculture and education sectors strengthened, and tourism stocks rose in a large area in the afternoon.
Northbound funds sold a substantial net amount of 12.466 billion yuan again today, with a net sale of more than 10 billion yuan for two consecutive days. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) were sold net of 1.857 billion yuan, 802 million yuan and 545 million yuan respectively; Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) bucked the trend and obtained a net purchase of 490 million yuan.
It is worth mentioning that the share price of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) changed in the afternoon. Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) said on the investor interaction platform today that the current centralized purchase of Guangdong alliance does not involve its long-term growth hormone products.
After the news, the share price of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) pulled 9% in three minutes, from falling more than 1% to rising more than 8%. But then the increase narrowed, closing up 2.78% to 174.55 yuan.
A shares closed in January. This month, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.65%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 10.29% and the gem index fell 12.45%.
In terms of industry, wind data showed that in January, among the 31 Shenwan industry indexes, only the banking sector rose 2.33%, while others fell. Among them, the indexes of national defense and military industry, medicine and biology, media, beauty care and electronics industry ranked among the top five, with a decline of more than 13%
shenwanyi industry index with the largest decline in January this year
For the recent market performance, Guosheng Securities said that the current market sentiment is too extreme, and the release of risks will help to find the “market bottom”. In the absence of significant changes in economic data, liquidity data and policy guidance, market sentiment will eventually return.
High probability of rise in February
From the perspective of historical “big data”, the probability of February is “red”.
The China Securities Journal China Securities Taurus reporter made statistics on the trend of Shanghai stock index in the past 30 years since 1992 and found several remarkable characteristics:
First of all, February is the month with the highest rise probability in the 12 months of the year. In the past 30 years, A-Shares have risen in February in 21 years, with a rising probability of 70%.
Secondly, the average increase in February was 2.92%, ranking third in 12 months, second only to may (6.63%) and April (4.37%).
According to the data of Wang Yang, a strategic analyst, since 2000, the probability of the rise of Wande a index in February is close to 80%.
it is best to enter the market in February or the first half of the year
Recently, market risks have been gradually released. February will usher in a safe window before the centralized disclosure of performance reports. Considering the time of credit supply, industry analysts believe that short-term A shares will rebound.
In addition to the above resumption data showing a high probability of rise in February, Wang Yang said that the risk of early Baotuan varieties has been released, and some sectors have even oversold in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the market may usher in a phased rebound in February.
From the perspective of time window, fan Jituo, a strategic analyst of Cinda securities, said that from the progress of annual report disclosure over the years, the time is mostly concentrated in March to April, and the centralized performance of annual report and first quarter report in February has not yet come.
Fan Jituo said that the liquidity situation from the Spring Festival to march was good. Although since the end of last year, many investors have been discussing spring agitation and cross year market, the agitation time with the highest real certainty in history is often February.
In view of the above two factors, fan Jituo believes that there may be a technical rebound in A-Shares in February, which may be the best entry stage in the first half of the year.
In terms of allocation, fan Jituo believes that financial real estate can advance, attack and retreat. With the strengthening of steady growth, it can continue to exceed the allocation until the second quarter of 2022; Food and beverage, home appliances, computers, media and other sectors are still in the process of quarterly rebound; The supply and demand cycle of military industry, hotel, aviation and other industries is independent, which can be paid attention to in 2022.
