Today (January 28) is the last trading day before the Spring Festival. After the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, they quickly ushered in a diving. After the intraday shock turned green, they continued to go down. However, since then, the bottom of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rebounded, leading the gem index to turn red first, thus stimulating the recovery of theme stocks, and the V-shaped reversal of the three major stock indexes. In the afternoon, bank stocks hit the market, the Shanghai index turned green and fell, while the gem and Shenzhen composite index were relatively resistant to decline.
In this regard, YueKai securities mentioned that investors should “look at the long scenery”. Under the theme of “focus on me”, steady growth is still the focus of the market in the near future. Whether it is broad money or credit, the policy underpinning economy is worth looking forward to. For the future market, the pre festival market pursues certainty, the performance of blue chip in the large market is better than that of small and medium-sized markets, the policy expectation after the festival rises again, and the market turns to pursue high elasticity. It is expected that steady growth in the first quarter is still the main market, and it is expected to take the lead in opening a wave of market dominated by large cap stocks.
At the same time, the organization further analyzed that in terms of allocation ideas, first, it has paid attention to the performance of large cap stocks in the near future. There is a strong demand for phased reverse switching of large cap stocks. Focus on the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials, household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as leisure services, food and beverage and other consumer industries that expand domestic demand.
Second, pay attention to the performance of small and medium-sized markets throughout the year. This year’s marginal change at the denominator end supports the trend of small and medium-sized stocks. In the stage of steady growth, we pay attention to the investment direction dominated by expected improvement and relative profit growth.
sector:
I. pork
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that the current pig price is in the second bottom of the w bottom, and the downward space of pig price is very limited. It is expected to usher in a cycle inflection point in the second half of 2022. At present, the valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom. With the continuous deregulation of production capacity, it is expected to usher in a cycle inflection point in the second half of 2022. At present, the valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom, which has a certain margin of safety and can be arranged appropriately. We give the pig breeding industry a “recommended” rating, focusing on the leaders Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) .
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that the most pessimistic time of the current industry expectation has passed. The downward trend of pig price will continue to reduce the stock of breeding sows, and the inflection point of pig cycle will accelerate. From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. For the selection of specific targets, it is recommended in turn: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) . In addition, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) are expected to benefit fully.
In addition, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that 1) pigs: we think 2022 is the best stage to layout the pig sector in advance, because the pig cycle in 2023 is likely to reverse the market. At the same time, meat products benefit from the downward price of pigs, and the profit is expected to further improve in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention.
2) seed industry: Recently, the seed industry has ushered in a number of important catalysts and is optimistic about the upswing of the planting chain. Considering that transgenic may bring subversive industrial changes, it is suggested to allocate by sector.
3) poultry chain: according to the data of the industry association, the stock of yellow chicken’s parents in production at the end of 2021 is at the lowest level in three years, and the trend of capacity reduction is still continuing. It is expected that the profit of yellow chicken breeding will improve from 2022. In addition, the white feather chicken industry is relatively mature, the whole industrial chain is sinking towards food deep processing, and the sector is bullish and undervalued. The white chicken sector.
4) in the future, agriculture will experience the supply side revolution of industrialization and digitization. Enterprises that digitalize in advance in the industry will benefit fully. Excellent growth stocks Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) of the management are recommended from bottom to top.
II. agricultural planting
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) mentioned that at the press conference of the state information office on January 20, Zeng Yande, director of the development planning department of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said that at present, the pilot industrialization of genetically modified varieties in China is being carried out in an orderly manner. Last year, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas carried out the pilot industrialization of herbicide resistant genetically modified soybeans and insect and herbicide resistant genetically modified maize that have obtained the production and application safety certificate, Good progress. At present, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas is revising the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, to clarify the relevant provisions on the industrialized application of genetically modified crops. We believe that the commercialization of genetically modified organisms in China is gradually and orderly promoted, and relevant enterprises are expected to usher in the performance cashing period. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) with technical reserves and first mover advantages in the genetically modified seed industry.
In addition, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) indicates that the cold event may last until the summer of 2022, and the volcanic eruption may affect the rhythm of SST change. According to the deduction of nmme model, it is at the peak of low sea level temperature at present, and NINO3 will be in the future 4 will continue to rise, and the probability will rise to the ENSO neutral range from April to June. It will still face the influence of La Nina this spring. It should be pointed out that the recent Tonga volcanic eruption or accelerated the rising rhythm of sea surface temperature, making La Nina phenomenon enter neutral events or even El Nino faster in the first half of the year. From the perspective of investment suggestions and investment targets, the global climate is facing abnormalities, crop production is facing potential risks, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) may rise but not fall, resulting in short-term opportunities in the planting chain. In addition, at present, the industrial chain is in the state of loss and capacity reduction in the downstream, the high price of upstream raw materials or the further reduction of fermentation capacity are expected, and the aquaculture sector has the value of configuration on the left.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) also pointed out that the Tonga volcanic eruption is one of the strongest volcanic eruptions in this century, or further bring climate impact, and the probability of extreme weather in the southern hemisphere increases. As the main grain producing areas in the southern hemisphere, such as Argentina, South Africa and Brazil, are close to Tonga volcano, the global crop production may be affected by the continuous eruption of Tonga volcano, and the unit yield level and excellent rate may decline, thus affecting the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply level.
III. prefabricated dishes
East Asia Qianhai Securities said that it is currently in the peak season of annual goods preparation, and the prefabricated vegetable sector has ushered in a bright performance. Near the Spring Festival, the major takeout and online platforms have ushered in the peak of customization of prefabricated dishes. At the same time, under the current epidemic situation, many places have launched local new year initiatives. Under the joint influence of the fast-paced lifestyle and the severe epidemic situation, the demand for home cooking during the spring Festival is rising, which promotes the strong demand for prefabricated dishes.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the lazy house economy promotes the rapid development of the prefabricated vegetable industry. Chinese households are increasingly dependent on industrialized food production and socialized food supply. Prefabricated dishes simplify the cumbersome steps of buying, washing, cutting and cooking, integrate quality, nutrition and taste, and cater to the lifestyle of young consumers in a fast-paced life. In 2021, the space scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next 3-5 years, China’s Prefabricated food industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that prefabricated dishes are booming and the advent of the Spring Festival has brought about a rise in investment sentiment. The related targets of “prefabricated dishes” in A-Shares are mainly Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , and also involve Xi’An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) . The main targets of Hong Kong stocks are Haidilao (dominated by the layout of Shuhai) / Yihai international, yum China-s, Xiabu, Xiabu, etc, The finished dishes of jiumaojiu C-end customers are relatively few.
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