“Some developers do not want to lose their stature and face, and do not want to refer and distribute channel fees.”
Recently, some market participants told the reporter of “daily economic news” that even if developers use promotion means such as intermediary to bring customers and discount at the opening, the new house transaction data is still not good-looking. In order to boost market confidence, some real estate projects create a hot selling atmosphere through “raising” sales data to attract market attention.
The reporter visited a number of real estate projects on sale in Shenzhen and found that since the fourth quarter of last year, the new housing market in Shenzhen has been suddenly cold, and has not improved since 2022. Even for many “online Red markets” that were sold out at the beginning of the year, the sales since the beginning of the year can not escape the cold.
Zhang Bo, President of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the cold of the new housing market is the corresponding effect of Shenzhen’s strict control of the real estate market. It is expected that if the policy does not continue to increase this year, the Shenzhen real estate market is expected to usher in a small rebound at the bottom in the first quarter. However, there is no opportunity for house prices to rise sharply this year, and they will remain stable. The trading volume is expected to increase significantly compared with last year, especially at the level of new houses.
“raise” sales data
“The sales data publicized on the poster is quite different from the actual transaction. Some developers play a marketing routine and whitewash the opening data in order to look good.” The above-mentioned market participants told the reporter of the daily economic news that since late October last year, the actual de chemical data of some projects in Shenzhen are quite different from the data publicized by developers, and some even double the difference.
Take a real estate project located in Luohu District, Shenzhen as an example. The project was approved for pre-sale in mid December last year, and the sales plan was announced, with an average price of 85900 yuan / m2 and a total price of 7.99 million-18.25 million yuan. Late that month, the project opened for the first time. The developer’s poster said that “238 sets were sold for the first time, equivalent to 33.6%”.
In the context of the gradual cooling of the new housing market in Shenzhen since the fourth quarter of last year, the project can achieve such sales data for the first time. However, more than a month after the opening of the project, the reporter inquired about the Shenzhen real estate information platform and learned that as of 15:00 p.m. on January 26, there were 85 “signed purchase books” and “filed” houses in the project, and another one was in the “branch locked” state, which was far from the 238 strong sales promoted by the developers.
Data source of new house turnover in Shenzhen since January 2022: Shenzhen real estate information platform
A residential project in Bantian, Longgang District, which opened earlier, launched more than 500 sets of 89-111 square meters of residential houses, with an average price of 62300 yuan / square meter and a total price of 5.17 million-7.33 million yuan. On the day after the opening, the official account of the Shenzhen company, which was certified by the project, announced that “the hot sale of the whole city was not allowed to be sold, and the sale was completed on the afternoon of the afternoon, and the total sales volume was cut off by 1 billion 100 million yuan as of that evening.”
The reporter inquired about the Shenzhen real estate information platform and learned that as of 15:00 on January 26, there were a total of 107 houses “signed purchase letter” and “signed” in the project.
The above market participants said that the sales volume of Longgang Bantian project is claimed to be 1.1 billion yuan. If calculated according to the actual number of sales sets, the average total price of the project is more than 10 million yuan. In fact, the average total price of the project is less than 6 million yuan, and the maximum total price does not exceed 8 million yuan. The marketing data published by the developer is far from the actual number of sales sets.
The reporter learned from a real estate agency that at this stage, the basic steps of new house sales in Shenzhen are: first, buyers register their intention. After successful qualification verification, determine whether to wave numbers and the order of house selection according to the number of houses and the number of intention registrants. After the house selection, a subscription form shall be signed. The buyer shall sign a formal pre-sale sales contract with the developer within the agreed time according to the subscription form, and the developer shall go to the government for filing.
The reporter also learned from the official website of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development that in the new housing transaction process in Shenzhen, “signed purchase letter” refers to that the house has signed a subscription letter, but has not signed a formal pre-sale or cash sale contract, “filed” refers to that the signed sales contract has been filed.
From the perspective of transaction process, due to the communication time difference in each link, it is not ruled out that there is a time difference between house selection and subscription and filing information update.
However, the above market participants said that now there is a sales plan for new houses, which can be updated to the latest state in about a week. Like the “online red disk” project with high attention, it can be updated within 2-3 days after opening. And such projects that have been opened for more than a month or even longer cannot be updated all the time. Then there is only one possibility, that is, not sold.
Why do developers whitewash sales data? The market believes that, on the one hand, developers are too confident and don’t want to admit that the new housing market has turned cold. They barely support normal sales and don’t refer in advance; On the other hand, developers care about the brand. If the de conversion rate is less than 10%, they feel that they are too cheap.
For the question of the market and the real transaction data, the reporter called the project sales office in Bantian, Longgang District. Its staff said that there were a little more than 200 sets (currently sold), and the specific amount was not counted. When the reporter asked why the official platform showed that “the source of registered and signed subscription study is 107 sets”, the staff changed to say that it is close to 200 sets, that is, 200 sets.
Subsequently, the staff member said, “what I can tell you is that our real estate opened in December (last year). No matter how many sets we actually sold, we sold the best real estate in the whole Bantian area.”
The real estate manager of the above Luohu District project responded to the reporter that “the houses selected online can be seen online, while the houses selected offline can not be seen, and there is no real-time update.” However, the real estate manager did not reply to questions such as the need to go through the official filing system and cycle regardless of the line and offline.
On the difference between the developer’s marketing data and the official subscription filing data, the reporter interviewed and consulted the staff of Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau. As of press time, the other party has not received a formal reply.
“we don’t have any discount”
However, even if some real estate sales encounter temporary difficulties at this stage, the “online red market” in the hot area of Shenzhen has no price reduction and promotion plan at present.
On January 7, Guangming Xinghe Tiandi Huadi obtained evidence and publicized it in Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau. A total of 248 residential units, 184 business apartments, 269 office units and 11 commercial products were launched. The house selection was officially held on January 15. The 248 residential units sold by Xinghe Tiandi Huadi this time are the fifth phase of the project. Located in the core area of Guangming and close to the subway entrance, it is a well deserved “online red disk” in the hot area in the west of Shenzhen. The houses of phase III and phase IV entering the market in 2021 were sold out immediately after opening. The average price of houses launched this time is the same as that of phase III and phase IV, which is 51900 yuan / m2 with hardcover, with a total price of 4.26 million-5.65 million yuan / set.
On the third day after the opening of the project, the reporter of the daily economic news visited the Sales Office of the project and found that the site of the sales office was still arranged according to the contract signing site, the ground was covered with red carpet, and multiple check-in desks were set up to receive customers who came to sign the contract. That afternoon, there were no contracted buyers in the sales office, only a number of salespeople gathered in the hall.
When the reporter entered the sales office, the front desk staff asked the reporter whether to sign a contract or look at the house, and arranged a real estate consultant to receive it.
The real estate consultant told reporters that the opening sales reached 60% and sold more than 100 sets. When the reporter asked whether there was a price reduction and promotion plan in the later stage, the real estate consultant repeatedly stressed that it would not reduce the price, introduced various advantages of the real estate, and said that the price difference between the new house of the project and the surrounding second-hand house was enough to support the price reduction in the later stage of the project. “The surrounding second-hand house projects are 80000, and our price limit is only more than 50000.”
The real estate manager of the above-mentioned Luohu District project also said in an interview with reporters, “the cost is 80000, and we are selling 85000? This is a loss of money. If it wasn’t for the price limit, we would have sold 130000, but now we don’t have any discount.”
According to the report recently released by Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, in the whole Dawan District, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are two cities where the price of second-hand houses is higher than that of new houses.
The reporter noted that the China Resources City Project in Nanshan District, which has the significance of the wind vane of Shenzhen property market, has been sold out rapidly in the past, but it has also been cold in the near future. On January 12, the remaining 100 suites of China Resources City Runxi phase II opened and started national marketing. Participants will enjoy a pre tax reward of 5000 yuan per suite for each recommended sale.
Prior to this, the runzhaofu project in Qianhai had withdrawn six houses, including one 150 square meters and five 110 square meters. Earlier, two sets of houses in the investment promotion Lingxi project were withdrawn, and they were soon supplemented.
In this regard, people close to China Resources Land told reporters that in the sales process, such as the loan review has not been passed, it is normal for several houses to withdraw, and the selection of houses will be postponed according to practice.
Recently, the daily economic news visited the site of the China Resources City Project in Nanshan District, which launched national marketing, and found that the phase II project currently on sale has just begun to build the facade. Across the way is the Runxi phase I project, which was waved by 10000 people last year. Only one year apart, the market treatment is completely different.
Then the reporter went to the Sales Office of Runxi phase II. The front desk operator said that he needed to make an appointment in advance to enter the city exhibition hall, and said that there were many people coming to see the house in the near future. However, in the afternoon of that day, nearly half an hour after the reporter contacted and waited for the real estate consultant, there were no other buyers who came to see the house except a real estate consultant in the exhibition hall.
Earlier, the Wanfeng coastal city project, which was also sold out at the opening, came out of the source of 54 suites.
There are different opinions on the reasons for check-out on the Internet. Some think that the product is inconsistent with the actual publicity, and some think that the material audit has not passed.
Subsequently, the reporter called Bao’an notary office and confirmed the check-out news of Wanfeng coastal city project to the reporter, saying that a supplementary house selection has been arranged. But for the reason of check-out, the other party said “I don’t know”. The staff of Wanfeng coastal city told reporters that some customers were hesitant because the mortgage loan could not be completed, some customers were hesitant because the market was low, and some customers wanted to see other options because of the large supply.
An owner who has checked out told the daily economic news, “I didn’t buy it. I entrusted a lawyer friend to help me deal with the communication.” As for more details of check-out, the owner will not disclose more.
Or the recent positive signals released by the senior management have given market confidence. The reporter clearly felt in the process of communicating with a number of real estate real estate consultants and intermediaries in Shenzhen that these policies are expected to make practitioners in the industrial chain believe that the market will improve in the future, and actively forward the information obtained by the house buyers who come to consult.
For example, the national development and Reform Commission recently issued the “notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future”, Article 8 of which refers to promoting the healthy development of housing consumption, supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies.
“In fact, from the perspective of various high-level meetings, there are loose and subtle adjustments to the real estate regulation and control policies, but the implementation of the spirit of these meetings to the financial side and regulation still needs some time and detailed rules. Therefore, in the short term, we may not feel the changes caused by the warm wind of policies in the market.” Professor Deng Zhiwang, director of the Real Estate Research Institute of the vocational college, said that it can be expected that there will be further easing of policies in the future, but there will certainly be no very large stimulus policies.
