2022 is the first year of mass production of lidar. The development prospect is promising. The intelligent sensor is the "eye" of the vehicle. Lidar has the ability of three-dimensional environment perception, high resolution and anti-interference. It has become the core sensor of intelligent driving vehicles above L3 level. In 2022, new forces (Wei Xiaoli) and head independent (Geely, great wall, etc.) heavy electric intelligent vehicles equipped with lidar were launched one after another. Lidar ushered in the first year of mass production of front loading in the passenger car market. Looking ahead, it is expected that the demand for lidar in the global passenger car market will rapidly increase from 220000 in 2021 to 21.34 million in 2025, with a CAGR of 214%, the penetration rate will increase from 0.2% in 2021 to 14% in 2025, and the market scale will increase from 2.1 billion yuan in 2021 to 54.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 126%.
The technological path of lidar continues to evolve. The cost is reduced and the price is lowered. Lidar is mainly composed of laser transmitting, laser receiving, information processing and scanning systems. The corresponding costs of laser, detector, information processing and optics are expected to account for about 30%, 20% - 30%, 30% - 40% and 10% respectively. The transmitter develops from eel to VCSEL; The receiver develops from Pd / APD to spad / SIPM; The chip side evolves from FPGA to SOC; The scanning end consists of mechanical semi-solid (medium and short term) - pure solid (long term). The reduction of the number of laser transceiver devices will reduce the cost. Looking forward to the future, large-scale mass production and chip manufacturing will reduce the cost, and the price will be from tens of thousands of dollars (pure solid) - 1500 dollars (semi-solid) - 500 dollars (pure solid).
Disassembly of lidar industrial chain: Launch scan detection processing assembly disassembly lidar upstream industrial chain, laser (transmitting end), overseas manufacturers OSRAM, lumentum and II-VI have been working for a long time. China torch technology has mass production customers (mainland), and Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai) Ltd(300620) can provide optical fiber components and Changguang Huaxin products without foreign investment; Detector (receiving end), overseas Hamamatsu products are comprehensive (PD, APD, SPAD, SIPM), and most of China are start-ups; Analog chip and FPGA (information processing), overseas chip leaders (Xilinx, Ti) are industry leaders, and Chinese suppliers start late; For optical components (scanning), China's supply chain is mature and has cost advantages. Companies represented by Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , Optowide Technologies Co.Ltd(688195) , Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) , Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) , Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) have begun supporting lidar customers. The listed companies of lidar suppliers in the midstream started abroad. Chinese head suppliers are competitive in terms of product strength and number of patents, and have made fixed-point gains, such as Dajiang livox (Xiaopeng P5), Suteng juchuang (Xiaopeng G9), Hesai Technology (ideal X01, SAIC Zhiji L7) and Huawei (Great Wall Salon machine Jialong).
Risk warning: downside risk of automobile sales and risk of technical path change.
Investment suggestion: Lidar brings domestic supply chain development opportunities, and we are optimistic about the new development opportunities of assembly and upstream component manufacturers in the lidar market. Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) (communication group coverage) and Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai) Ltd(300620) (communication group coverage) are recommended. It is suggested to pay attention to Shunyu optical technology, Optowide Technologies Co.Ltd(688195) , Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) , and torch technology.
