The stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets closed low, opened low and adjusted to the negative line after the Federal Reserve ended its bond purchase in early March and promoted interest rate hike, Canada will raise interest rates to cope with high inflation, large-scale capital outflow of RMB 14.6 billion to the north, and 99% of the industry segmentation index reappeared the risk of “general decline + sharp decline + sharp fall”, and the volatility tested the support of the previous low point, Or it is expected to usher in the differentiation or turnaround run of “turning the tide around”.
From the perspective of Shanghai stock index, high opening and low contraction adjust the negative line to break through 3400 points, or it is expected that the effective multi head counter attack can be organized only when the inertia test is near 3350 points; The five wave structure of the gem index accelerated to catch up with the bottom, opened low and walked low, adjusted the negative line slightly, highlighted the short power, and will test the strong support of 2869 points; Combined with the operation of the negative line of Shenzhen Component Index’s large-scale adjustment, which has completed the gap replenishment of 13421 points, and the negative line of Kechuang 50 index’s shrinkage adjustment has reached the strong support area of technical double bottom, it is expected that the probability of bottom recovery will be given in the last trading day before the festival.
At the close of the market, smart government, digital currency, information security, state-owned assets cloud, industrial mainframe, software services, Internet, it equipment, electrical instruments, telecom operation, semiconductor, culture, education and leisure, Hongmeng concept, byte beat, cloud computing, data center, intellectual property, cloud games, industrial interconnection and other sectors led the decline, with a large-scale net outflow of funds, The average volatility exceeds 4%, which has a strong negative impact and impact on the index. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 19 stocks rose by more than 9%, 33 stocks rose by more than 5%, 64 stocks rose by more than 3%, 166 stocks fell by more than 9%, 782 stocks fell by more than 5% and 2431 stocks fell by more than 3%, which made it clear that the results of the hawkish interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve had a significant impact and disturbance on the global capital market, This is the core and key for the A-share index to continue to fall despite the positive liquidity released by the central bank and the original intention of the management to protect the capital market. January 28 is the closing day of the week and the last trading day of the countdown to the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected that the differentiation and turnaround run of “general fall + sharp fall + sharp fall” will stimulate the red market closing of the stock indexes of the two cities and welcome the “year of the Tiger Spring Festival”.
On the news side, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current rate of reducing bond purchase, purchase US $20 billion of treasury bonds and US $10 billion of MBS in February, and end bond purchase in early March. The Bank of Canada kept its main interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, but said it would raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Hawkish statements such as the Fed maintaining the three major policy interest rates unchanged and reducing the balance sheet will be carried out by adjusting the reinvestment amount, that is, the “passive” way. It is expected that the global emerging markets will usher in a period of severe volatility and lead to a sharp decline in risk appetite.
On the Chinese side, the State Council issued the “opinions on supporting Guizhou to blaze a new path in the western development in the new era”, strictly managing government investment projects and strictly curbing new hidden debts according to law; Strengthen the overall planning of financial resources, actively revitalize all kinds of capital assets, and steadily resolve the stock of implicit debt; In accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, on the premise of implementing the responsibility of local government debt and not adding new local government implicit debt, the financing platform company is allowed to negotiate with financial institutions on the qualified stock implicit debt and adopt appropriate methods such as extension and debt restructuring to maintain capital turnover; Improve the emergency response mechanism for local government debt risk, and study and support the pilot of reducing debt risk in some high-risk areas; Support the layout of the industrial backup base for key parts, key materials and key equipment, and build the important Baijiu production base in Chishui River Basin by the advantages of Maotai Baijiu liquor origin and main producing areas. Promote the development of the intensive processing industry of characteristic foods and traditional Chinese medicine, and support the inclusion of Guizhou Miao medicine and other national medicines that meet the requirements in the Pharmacopoeia of the people’s Republic of China; Promote the all-round and all chain digital transformation of traditional industries, and guide traditional formats to actively carry out Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , all-channel, customized and accurate marketing innovation.
Combined with the notice on promoting cloud network integration and accelerating the construction of information infrastructure in small and medium-sized cities, it is proposed that basic telecom enterprises should take improving the level of information infrastructure in small and medium-sized cities as the investment focus of the 14th five year plan, and analyze the annual investment plan according to the goals of “thousands of cities and thousands of pools” and “thousands of cities and thousands of pools”, We will guide governments at all levels to give preference to the construction of information infrastructure in small and medium-sized cities for new infrastructure construction funds, encourage all kinds of integrated infrastructure enterprises and relevant industrial units to give preference to new construction investment in small and medium-sized cities, and focus on traditional infrastructure fields such as government services, social management, industrial manufacturing, transportation, education, medical treatment and cultural tourism, Carry out the pilot construction of Gigabit virtual private network, coordinate the deployment of industrial passive optical network (PON), industrial OTN, 5g base station, edge computing, industry terminal and other facilities, promote the application of network slicing, AI, Internet of things and other new technologies, build an integrated infrastructure system suitable for digital development, and cultivate and form more industrial clusters and innovation ecosystems, It is clear that irrational extreme panic selling must lead to short-term or band opportunities for the entry of bottom reading funds.
The author believes that the new material products in the Guiding Catalogue for the first batch of application demonstration of key new materials (2019 Edition) should be used in the promotion and application of industrial machine tools, 5g new generation information technology, biomedicine and high-end medical equipment, new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, agricultural machinery, rare earth metals, green and low-carbon major technical equipment, Beidou navigation system 13 key industrial chains, including safe and reliable printers, advanced traffic high-end detection instruments, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , image sensing and MEMS sensing chips and manufacturing processes, component simulation software, etc., can apply for premium subsidies if they meet the relevant requirements of the first batch of insurance compensation; The action plan for digital village development (2022-2025) issued by 10 departments including the central network information office promoted the upgrading and engineering transformation of digital infrastructure. The profits of pharmaceutical, electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry increased by 77.9% and 44.0% respectively over the previous year, and the profits of aerospace and equipment and information technology products manufacturing industry increased by 76.2% and 52.6% respectively, It is clear that based on the stable and positive economic fundamentals of China and the release of liquidity by the central bank, the policy bottom signal is given, which means that the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai on the 28th are expected to obtain buying support near the strong support of important value centers and operate a slightly strong bottom building structure.
In view of this, it is recommended that secondary market investors actively grasp the core benefit sectors such as semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial motherboards, 5g, artificial intelligence, Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, metauniverse, communication equipment, new energy vehicles, it equipment, UHV, industrial Internet, new energy, securities and insurance, Bargain hunting layout at the end of the five wave sell-off should probably reap the investment income of “cross year red envelope”. (Note: the above information is only for reference and not for specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. Zhang Cuixia’s qualification certificate: a0680620080009)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2022-1-27)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-1-27)
