Whenever the Spring Festival holiday approaches, “holding money or holding shares” will become an important topic for investors. Based on the views recently released by institutions, most of them are optimistic about the post holiday market and actively suggest “holding shares for the holiday”. However, there are still some differences among institutions on the research and judgment of post festival market style.
It is worth mentioning that investors’ discussion on “holding money or holding shares” is essentially a prediction of the medium and short-term market. Historical experience shows that the short-term market is highly random and unpredictable. Investors should also pay more attention to the evolution of the main contradictions in the current market and focus on the trend and direction with a longer dimension.
the rise rate after the Spring Festival holiday in the past 12 years is 75%
The Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) strategy group recently released a report summarizing the market performance before and after the Spring Festival holiday in the past 12 years (2010-2021). Overall, there is a significant “Spring Festival effect” in the A-share market. The performance of the market after the Spring Festival holiday is good in most years, and the rise probability of major broad-based indexes is high.
The data show that in the past 12 years, the all a index rose within five trading days after the Spring Festival holiday in nine years, with an increase rate of 75%; In terms of the rising range, the average increase of the all a index in the five trading days after the Spring Festival holiday in the past 12 years was 1.4% and the median was 1.8%. From the perspective of volatility, the market performance after the Spring Festival holiday over the years is more stable than that of the whole year.
In addition, the comparison shows that the overall performance of medium and small cap indexes such as CSI 500 and CSI 1000 after the Spring Festival holiday is better than that of heavyweight indexes such as SSE 50 and CSI 300. The high price earnings ratio style is better than the low price earnings ratio style, and the high price stock style is better than the low price stock style.
“shareholding holiday” has become a new consensus of institutions
Since the beginning of 2022, the overall market shock has weakened, and growth stocks such as new energy have fallen sharply. Based on the views of all parties, there are two main contradictions to be solved in the current market:
First, concerns about incremental funds. Data show that since this month, the total issued shares of equity and hybrid funds have been less than 80 billion, less than one fifth of that in January 2021, lower than market expectations; Second, US bond yields rose rapidly. In terms of pricing theoretical model, the rise of risk-free interest rate suppresses the valuation of growth sector.
Many institutions generally said that the follow-up of the above two contradictions is expected to usher in improvement, which also constitutes the main logic of the proposal to “hold shares for holidays”.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities firmly suggests “holding shares for holidays”. According to Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , in the past few years, the sharp decline caused by passive position reduction caused by non fundamental factors is not a “selling point” but a “buying point” in hindsight.
“From the perspective of liquidity, the RMB exchange rate has remained strong recently, and the northward capital is still in the state of net inflow. The issuance of new funds has also improved marginally, and the star blue chip fund manager products have gradually developed. Last week (January 17-21), the scale of newly established partial equity funds exceeded 37 billion yuan, nearly doubled month on month, at a high level since the second quarter of 2021.” Chen Guo said.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) Zhang Yidong, the world’s chief strategic analyst, believes that the turbulence in the overseas market will not pose a major risk to the A-share market, and the follow-up of the A-share market will be “dominated by me”. In his opinion, China’s policy environment will enter the stage of “stabilizing the economy” in 2022, the investment clock will gradually recover, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will remain stable. Therefore, in 2022, A-Shares have better allocation and cost performance.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) Yi Bin, chief strategic analyst, also said that “holding shares for the holiday” is still the best choice at present. He stressed that the current market environment is very similar to that before the National Day holiday in 2021. The market also experienced irrational adjustment at the end of September 2021. With the natural recovery of trading volume after the National Day holiday, although the market experienced some twists and turns in October, it still gave birth to the “winter agitation” market in the fourth quarter.
there are differences in the research and judgment of market style after the festival
Although the “shareholding holiday” has basically become a consensus, there are obvious differences in inter agency views on the style and trend of the post holiday market.
Some securities companies believe that under the background of continuous fermentation of the main line of “stable growth”, the market value will continue to become the dominant style.
Chen Xianshun, chief strategist of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that looking forward, the market style will move from mid cap blue chip to market value. On the one hand, due to the rapid convergence of growth differences among primary industries, it will be more difficult to find industries with obvious advantages of high prosperity; On the other hand, with the emergence of the main line of “stable growth”, the redistribution of profit structure and the repair of the middle and lower reaches will become an important clue for value promotion.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) the strategy team also believes that the “size switching” of the market style may have just begun. From the perspective of valuation, at present, the dividend yield of the leaders of central enterprises with undervalued A and H shares is in a leading position compared with the global mainstream market. At the same time, the valuation ranking is lower, and the valuation repair should be taken for granted.
Some securities companies focus on the rebound opportunities of the growth track and the long-term positive trend of “specialization and innovation”.
Chen Guo said that since December 2021, the relative return difference of the “steady growth” sector relative to the growth style has reached the upper limit level of the “steady growth” market in the past several times, and the large market blue chip may no longer have a significant excess return relative to high-quality growth stocks. Looking forward to the future, high-quality growth stocks supported by the fundamentals of the first quarterly report are expected to rebound.
Wu Kaida, chief strategist of Debang securities, believes that “specialization and innovation” will become the new main line of the market after “Mao index” and “Ning portfolio”. Combined with the profit expectation, the overall profit growth of A-share “specialized and special new” enterprises is faster than the three large-scale indexes. It is expected that the high growth rate of the company’s profit in the future will quickly digest the valuation.
