According to the data of , as of 18:00 on January 26, 137 A-share pharmaceutical and biological companies had disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. Among them, 106 are pre happy, and the proportion of pre happy exceeds 77%, which is higher than that in 2020. In terms of subdivided fields, the demand of API, covid-19 testing, CXO (Pharmaceutical outsourcing) and other sectors is strong, and the performance of relevant enterprises is good.
industry insiders believe that under the upgrading of healthy consumption, the pharmaceutical industry will accelerate its growth, with a long logical cycle and strong certainty, which is optimistic for a long time.
outstanding performance of high prosperity sector
Statistics show that pharmaceutical companies with pre increased performance in 2021 are mainly concentrated in medical devices, APIs, CXO and other segments. Among the 20 companies whose lower limit of net profit increase exceeds 150%, 7 are involved in covid-19 testing business and 5 are engaged in chemical API research and production business.
According to the reporter of China Securities News, among the covid-19 testing sector that has attracted much market attention recently, 17 companies have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021, and 13 companies are expected to be happy. The overall performance of the sector has generally achieved high growth. Among them, Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) and other 8 companies have the lower limit of net profit increase exceeding 100%.
According to the Research Report of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , China’s export of covid-19 testing reagent fell after the peak in April 2021, but the demand for covid-19 testing reagent broke out again in the fourth quarter due to the resurgence of overseas epidemic. From the performance forecast, the net profits of Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) and other companies hit a record high in 2021. Calculated by the median value of the forecast net profits, the net profits of the above companies in the fourth quarter increased by more than 25% month on month. Industry insiders believe that the demand for epidemic prevention and control continues, and the domestic covid-19 testing demand will continue to rise.
Affected by the favorable policies, some chemical API enterprises have achieved outstanding performance. Statistics show that a total of 40 pharmaceutical enterprises in the chemical pharmaceutical industry predict their performance in 2021. Among them, 28 companies have good performance and 24 companies have a lower limit of predicted net profit of more than 100 million yuan. Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) topped the list with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.098 billion yuan to 4.811 billion yuan. The company said that the year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company during the reporting period was mainly due to the increase in the selling price and sales volume of vitamin E, methionine and other products compared with the same period last year.
Industry insiders said that in recent years, the overall policy of the API industry has become stricter. With the promotion of quality control policies such as the correlation review and consistency evaluation of the original and auxiliary packaging, the production capacity of low-quality API has accelerated to be cleared, and the industry has gradually returned to the direction of high quality, high added value and green development, with increased concentration. From the middle of 2021, the prices of some APIs began to rise due to the positive impact of the transmission of upstream price increases to the downstream and the recovery of international demand.
In addition, thanks to factors such as the transfer of global industrial chain, the acceleration of drug examination reform, cost advantage and drug innovation and upgrading, China’s CXO track has maintained a high boom in recent years, and the performance of CXO enterprises continues to grow strongly in 2021. Among them, the lower limit of Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) net profit advance exceeds 50%, and the lower limit of Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Boji Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300404) net profit advance exceeds 110%.
institutions are optimistic about the pharmaceutical industry
Pharmaceutical companies with promising performance are sought after by capital. Affected by covid-19 self-test product’s emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and drug administration, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) since the disclosure of the matter on November 8, 2021 to the end of 2021, the stock price has increased by more than 725% in 40 trading days and 440.35% in 2021.
In 2022, the organization is still optimistic about the high boom track. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that the epidemic of Omicron mutant virus caused an upward demand for covid-19 detection. In the short term, the number of newly diagnosed patients in the world is growing rapidly, and there is a strong demand for covid-19 antigen detection reagents abroad; In the medium and long term, the demand for epidemic prevention and control continues, and the market may have a new understanding of the long-term valuation level of covid-19 detection sector; Relevant enterprises will invest the anti epidemic demand profits into new product development and conventional business development. In the future, high-quality enterprises are expected to seize the opportunity and open up long-term growth space.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that CXO valuation has been greatly digested and is expected to usher in configuration opportunities. At present, the valuation of most relevant enterprises has been at the average or historical low in the past three years. Looking forward to 2022, the sales of covid-19 oral specific drugs are expected to exceed expectations, the capacity expansion of key companies is accelerated, and the overseas non covid-19 R & D pipeline will resume progress, catalyzing the prosperity of China’s cdmo field.
Minsheng securities predicts that the pharmaceutical patent pool Organization (MPP) announced the authorized pharmaceutical enterprise of MSD covid-19 oral medicine, which is expected to drive the large-scale production in the upstream of the industrial chain. The agency pointed out that Pfizer’s covid-19 oral drug paxlovid has been authorized to MPP organization and is expected to obtain greater penetration and demand. At present, many pharmaceutical enterprises in China are applying for generic drug authorization. Once the authorization announcement is implemented, it will further benefit the enterprises with relevant raw material production capacity.
Ping An Securities said that the production of covid-19 specific drugs may increase the demand for APIs and cdmo in China, which will benefit the whole covid-19 specific drugs industry chain.
Institutions are also optimistic about the development of undervalued sectors in 2022. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the traditional Chinese medicine sector has not risen for many years, which is characterized by low valuation, low position and good chip structure. It is strongly supported by national policies. Under the background of aging and consumption upgrading, the consumption attribute of traditional Chinese medicine promotes its rapid and large-scale volume, and high-quality traditional Chinese medicine enterprises will meet the opportunity of strategic development. The agency suggests paying attention to traditional Chinese medicine enterprises mainly engaged in traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, OTC traditional Chinese medicine, innovative prescription drugs and other products.
