On January 26, A-Shares stabilized and rebounded, and more than 3000 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose. In the slow bull market in the past few years, the market has experienced rapid adjustment for many times. Afterwards, it is a “golden pit”. Market participants said that this round of A-share adjustment has not changed the slow bull pattern, the market sentiment factors are fully released, the medium and short-term rise is expected to rise again, and investors have a good chance of winning by choosing “holding shares for the holiday”.
show four bottoming signals
On January 26, the three major A-share indexes strengthened as a whole. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to close at 3455.64 points; Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.70% to close at 13780.30 points; The gem index rose 0.99% to close at 3004.41. A total of 3088 stocks rose in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the track leading stocks Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) rebounded one after another, with a strong market profit-making effect. The overall strength of the “popularity wind vane” brokerage sector, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) limit, Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) , Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) and other increases were obvious.
On that day, the transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 794.2 billion yuan, the land volume level since the end of April 2021. From January 21 to 26, the turnover of the two markets was less than trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days.
From the K-line shape of the index day, the three indexes show the shape of “single needle bottom”. Taking the Shanghai stock index as an example, several adjustments in the past ended in the form of “single needle bottoming”, the most recent of which occurred on November 11, 2021.
On the 26th, the net inflow of northbound funds into the A-share market was 1.139 billion yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 43.864 billion yuan since January. According to the statistics of Debang securities, the large net inflow of northward funds will often open a wave of rising market. In the first 60 trading days before the time point of substantial net inflow of northbound funds, the market has often risen slightly; In the 60 trading days after this point, the increase will be greater than before.
“Land volume see land price”, “single needle bottom”, northward fund-raising, and the strength of brokerage stocks. In the view of some market participants, these four signals may indicate that this round of A-share adjustment is coming to an end. “Considering that it has fallen back to the bottom area, the cost performance of A-Shares has significantly improved. It is suggested that investors consider increasing the allocation in due time.” Song Yiwei, chief analyst of Bohai Securities, analyzed.
“golden pit” is more likely
In the past few years, A-Shares have repeatedly experienced short-term rapid adjustment trends, such as March 2020 and March 2021. These adjustments are “golden pits” in hindsight. This round of adjustment is similar to the previous ones.
First, these adjustments are disturbed by emotional or external factors. Chen Hongbin, chief economist of Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) , pointed out that the recent decline of A-Shares was mainly affected by external factors. First, due to the fluctuations in overseas markets caused by the geographical situation, as the geographical situation eases, the market emotional panic will be eased; Second, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates does not need to be overly pessimistic for the Chinese market. At present, the strong appreciation of RMB in the foreign exchange market hedges the expectation that the US dollar may raise interest rates in the next step, and foreign capital continues to be optimistic about the Chinese market; Third, there are still uncertainties in economic development. In the first quarter of this year, China’s economy stabilized significantly, monetary policy remained loose and fiscal policy was stable. It is expected that China’s economy will gradually enter a strong growth track in the second and third quarters.
Secondly, before each adjustment, most of the market had the problem of over valuation of the main line varieties of the structure at that time. Through the adjustment, the market either squeezed the valuation water or switched the main line. Such as the adjustment in March 2020, before that, the semiconductor sector rose sharply, and then the market switched to the consumer sector. In fact, this round of A-share adjustment is closely related to the correction of high boom and overvalued tracks such as new energy.
Third, there are special factors in each adjustment, but they are not enough to change the slow bull pattern of the market. In this round of adjustment, many voices in the market believe that this is related to the cold issuance of public funds and the lack of incremental running water. According to China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) statistics, the “good start” of fund issuance did not appear in January 2022. The amount raised by partial stock funds in the first half of the month was less than 20 billion yuan, far lower than the level in December 2021 and January of previous years. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) the latest statistics show that the issuance of public funds has warmed up in the last week. The scale of newly established partial stock public funds is about 37 billion yuan, far ahead of the level of two weeks.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that as the follow-up market is expected to stabilize gradually, the fund issuance is expected to pick up within 1-3 months, and the “100 billion issuance” in the follow-up single month will still be the norm.
institutions are optimistic about the main line of “steady growth”
With the gradual stabilization of a shares, the attention of major institutions began to turn to specific allocation strategies.
Zheng Xiaoxia, chief strategist of Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) , said that as the adjustment is gradually coming to an end, A-Shares will continue to usher in the spring market. Four main investment lines deserve attention: first, the growth line with high valuation flexibility; Second, there are allocation opportunities for the main line of steady growth; Third, the real estate sector with continuous marginal improvement of securities companies and policies; Fourth, the consumption sector can mainly look for opportunities through the logic of price rise.
Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of YueKai securities, believes that the market has been chasing certainty recently, and the performance of blue chips in the large market is better than that of small and medium-sized markets. The market may turn to high elastic varieties after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the steady growth in the first quarter is still the main market, and the market dominated by large cap stocks may open. In terms of allocation ideas, first, pay attention to the performance of large cap stocks in the near future. There is a strong demand for phased reverse switching in large cap stocks. Focus on the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials, household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as leisure services, food and beverage and other consumer industries that expand domestic demand. Second, pay attention to the performance of small and medium-sized varieties throughout the year. Focus on the investment direction with expected improvement and relative profit growth, such as energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other fields supported by high-quality transformation and development.
