Ten days after Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH) raised the price of silicon wafers, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129. SZ) also increased the price of silicon wafers across the board. Industry analysts told the financial associated press that since this month, the operating rate of downstream battery chips has increased, and they began to actively stock up for the production of Spring Festival in late October, thus exacerbating the shortage of silicon chip supply. In terms of supply and demand, silicon wafers remained high in the first quarter.
Industry analysts believe that silicon wafers will remain high in the first quarter. Fang Wenzheng, an analyst at Longzhong information, told the financial associated press that on the demand side, near the end of the year, considering the logistics outage factors, downstream battery enterprises began to actively hoard inventory before January 20 to ensure timely delivery after the year. Strong demand led to changes in market supply and demand.
According to Fang Wenzheng, the main production areas of LAJING, such as Ningxia and Qinghai, are affected by the earthquake, involving a number of major manufacturers. It is expected to take about 10 days for maintenance, resulting in loss of production capacity and reduced operating rate, which will also reduce supply.
At the same time, the current silicon material continues to rise slightly, which also supports the cost of silicon wafers. On January 26, the silicon industry branch updated the polysilicon quotation. This week, the price range of China's single crystal re feeding was 23000-247000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 241100 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.46%; The price range of single crystal compact is 228000-245000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 238500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.38%.
It is worth noting that due to the limited new capacity in the first half of the year, there is still room for silicon materials to rise. According to the research feedback of Longzhong information, from the analysis of the signing of silicon material supply orders of silicon wafer enterprises, some silicon wafer enterprises with the advantage of negotiating orders will implement the silicon material orders at the price of 230-235 yuan / kg until the end of January, and the signing price in February may rise to around 245000 yuan / ton.
However, there is also some room for adjustment. Fang Wenzheng told the financial associated press that with the completion of production line maintenance after the festival, the price of silicon wafer is expected to return to stability. In addition, after poly GCL's granular silicon is put into mass production, it is expected to reduce the production cost of silicon wafer and relieve the pressure. According to public information, poly GCL (3800. HK) has modularized and copied two 100000 ton and one 300000 ton silicon material production bases in Xuzhou, Leshan and Baotou respectively. The production capacity will be released successively in 2022, and the proportion of granular silicon in the company's total silicon material output will rise sharply.
Therefore, on the whole, the silicon wafer will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the first quarter, which will be transmitted to the downstream. Ding Wenlei, executive director of Shandong Hangyu Energy Co., Ltd., told the financial associated press that after the upstream price rise, the component cost will rise accordingly after adjustment. According to its prediction, the component price should fluctuate between 1.8 yuan and 2 yuan per watt this year. The construction of the power station is planned to start on the seventh day of the first month, and the operation rate after the festival is expected to be more than 50%.
