As one of the hottest industries in 2021, benefiting from the explosive growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles, the performance forecast of listed companies related to lithium battery industry is outstanding. According to the statistics of the reporter of China Securities Journal, as of January 26, more than 100 lithium battery listed companies had a good performance in 2021. Among them, the profit growth rate of upstream enterprises of lithium battery raw materials is the largest, and the profits of middle and downstream material plants and vehicle end are under pressure. As Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and other enterprises successively announced price increases, the upstream cost pressure is expected to be relieved.
Market institutions believe that with the high growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles, the capacity of battery manufacturers will be released, and it is expected to usher in a good situation of simultaneous rise in volume and price. It is estimated that in 2022, the global installed capacity of power batteries will reach 450gwh and the installed capacity in China will reach 230gwh.
nearly 90% of the company reported good results
According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of January 26, 123 listed companies related to lithium battery industry had disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. Among them, 107 companies are expected to have good performance, accounting for about 87%; 12 expected losses. 14 listed companies, including Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yanan Bicon Pharmaceutical Listed Company(002411) , turned losses into profits.
A number of listed companies said that the global new energy vehicle market was hot in 2021, and the growth of power battery demand led to the rise of the company's product demand. According to statistics, in 2021, the annual sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles completed 3521000, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. In 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output totaled 219.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of 163.4%.
In 2021, the market demand of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeded that of ternary battery, driving the improvement of relevant production and business performance. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, the loading volume of ternary batteries in China totaled 74.3gwh in 2021, accounting for 48.1% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 91.3%; The cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery was 79.8gwh, accounting for 51.7% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 227.4%.
The manufacturer of lithium hexafluorophosphate Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) said that the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle industry and the sharp increase in the market demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate led to the increase in the market sales price of lithium hexafluorophosphate; At the same time, the production and sales of lithium hexafluorophosphate products increased significantly, driving the company's operating efficiency to increase significantly year-on-year in 2021.
Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) said that the new capacity of the company will be released in 2021, and the production and sales volume will increase significantly compared with 2020; The price rise of upstream raw materials and the tight supply and demand of lithium iron phosphate Market drive the price rise of the company's products; At the same time, thanks to the effective promotion of the company's cost control and the appearance of economies of scale, the company's profitability has been greatly improved compared with 2020.
The demand for aluminum foil and copper foil of power battery continues to rise. Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) it is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 410 million yuan to 450 million yuan in 2021 and a net loss of 14.9943 million yuan in 2020. Tongguan copper foil predicts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be about 349 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 387.26%.
the performance differentiation of lithium mining company is obvious
Since 2021, the price of lithium salt, the raw material of power battery, has continued to rise. According to the data of business agency, as of January 26, the price of industrial lithium carbonate exceeded 350000 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 2.34% and a year-on-year increase of 426.43%. The price of battery grade lithium carbonate reached 377000 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of more than 400%.
Benefiting from the rising price of lithium salt and the rising market demand, the performance of listed companies related to lithium mines in the upstream of lithium battery industry achieved high growth in 2021. The Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) 2021 transcripts known as the "two heroes of lithium mine" are bright. Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 368.45% to 436.76%. Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be 1.8 billion yuan to 2.4 billion yuan, with a loss of nearly 1.834 billion yuan in the same period of last year.
Zangger mining, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) is expected to have a maximum profit of 1.45 billion yuan, 1.05 billion yuan and 900 million yuan respectively in 2021, which is significantly inferior to the "two giants of lithium mines" in volume. Insiders said that the company's control over lithium assets and mining rights have become the key to the performance differentiation of lithium listed companies.
According to the data, as of December 2021, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) battery grade lithium carbonate has a capacity of 43000 tons / year and battery grade lithium hydroxide has a capacity of 81000 tons / year. Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) said that the layout of lithium resources in Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) has been significantly accelerated in the past two years. China has arranged Yiliping / Jintai and other salt lake projects, overseas goulamina spodumene mine and increased its stake in Sonora clay lithium extraction project. At the same time, technical experts have been arranged to go to Argentina in batches to support the construction of cauchari olaroz project to ensure that the project will be put into operation in 2022.
cost pressure downward conduction
Some people are happy and others are sad. While the upstream of lithium battery is making a lot of money, the midstream power battery manufacturers and downstream vehicle enterprises of new energy vehicles bear greater cost pressure.
Power battery manufacturer Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) predicts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be 2.726 billion yuan to 3.056 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 65% to 85%. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that in the fourth quarter of 2021, the price of upstream raw material lithium carbonate increased by 86.5% month on month, and it is estimated that the cost of industrial power ternary / iron lithium battery cell increased by 15.4% / 18.5% month on month. Due to the delay in the transmission of the price increase to downstream enterprises, the company's profit was under pressure in the short term.
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 6.6 billion yuan to 7.6 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 11% to 27%. Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that in 2021, GAC's independent brand was affected by the lack of core and the rise of raw material prices.
Battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers have relieved the cost pressure by raising prices. According to the official news of Byd Company Limited(002594) on January 21, due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and the decline of new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, Byd Company Limited(002594) vehicles will adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com by 1000-7000 yuan. The price adjustment will take effect on February 1, and customers who pay a deposit before that will not be affected.
Previously, Tesla has taken the lead in announcing price increases. On December 31, 2021, Tesla China's official website showed that the price of the rear wheel drive version of model 3 was adjusted to 265652 yuan, an increase of 10000 yuan compared with the previous price; The price of model y rear wheel drive version was adjusted to 301840 yuan, an increase of 210880 yuan compared with the previous price.
The price rise tide of battery factories is earlier than that of car enterprises. On October 26, 2021, a contact letter on Byd Company Limited(002594) battery price increase showed that due to the continuous rise in the price of lithium battery raw materials, the company increased the unit price of c08m and other battery products from November 1, 2021, and the price including tax increased by no less than 20% on the basis of the current watt hour (WH) unit price. Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) the price increase letter issued on October 13, 2021 shows that all new orders will implement bulk linkage pricing, and the increase range depends on the proportion and increase of each product material. The quotation is updated in real time every week, and orders with long-term and notice of feeding and picking up are not accepted. In addition, it will renegotiate the price of orders that have not been picked up, and comprehensively shorten the accounting period.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that with the implementation of battery price rise, the price rise of raw materials slows down, and it is expected to usher in the turning point of battery profit in the middle of 2022. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the global power battery demand of new energy vehicles in 2021 is about 289gwh. It is expected that the global power battery demand of new energy vehicles will reach 1380gwh by 2025, and the industry will enter the TWH era.
