The comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan (hereinafter referred to as the “work plan”) recently released by the State Council proposes that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles. Driven by the consumption demand of new energy vehicles, Byd Company Limited(002594) , beiteri and other lithium battery industry companies announced production expansion plans to meet the rapidly growing market demand through capacity expansion.
strong consumption potential
The work plan proposes to strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction projects in transportation and logistics, and increase the proportion of new energy vehicles used in urban public transport, leasing, logistics, sanitation and cleaning.
According to the data of the passenger Federation, the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars completed 3.521 million in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years; The market share reached 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. In 2021, a total of 9.543 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 23.1% and a market share of 44.4%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year.
Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 5 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%. The planned target of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars accounting for 20% in 2025 is likely to be achieved ahead of schedule.
While encouraging the consumption of new energy vehicles, the work plan also points out that we should orderly promote the construction of infrastructure such as charging and changing electricity, filling (gas), hydrogenation and shore power of ports and airports. Data show that by the end of 2021, China had built 75000 charging stations, 2.617 million charging piles, 1298 replacement power stations, and more than 10000 power battery recycling service outlets in 31 provinces and cities across the country.
AVIC securities predicts that the number of replacement power stations in China will be more than 20000 in 2025. Based on this, it is estimated that the investment in new replacement power stations during the 14th Five Year Plan period will reach 127.6 billion yuan and the operation market space of replacement power stations will reach 109.1 billion yuan.
accelerated capacity expansion
In order to meet the rapidly growing consumer demand, the new energy vehicle industry chain company is also accelerating the expansion of production.
Recently, Byd Company Limited(002594) signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xiangyang City. It is reported that Xiangyang Byd Company Limited(002594) Industrial Park, as an important new energy vehicle industry chain project under Byd Company Limited(002594) , will build five major projects: new energy vehicle factory, auto parts factory, power battery factory, power battery parts factory and zero carbon park. The project will be constructed in three phases. The total investment in phase I is 10 billion yuan, and the total investment in phase III is expected to exceed 18 billion yuan.
In terms of cathode materials, Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) announced on December 18, 2021 that in order to expand the existing capacity of lithium iron phosphate, Changzhou lithium source, the holding subsidiary of the company, signed the cooperation agreement on lithium iron phosphate cathode material project with juancheng County People’s government. It plans to build a 50000 ton lithium iron phosphate cathode material project, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) underwrites all the capacity of the project from the date of production to December 31, 2023.
In terms of cathode materials, beiteri announced on January 24 that the company plans to sign the cooperation agreement on the integrated base project of lithium battery cathode materials with an annual output of 200000 tons with the people’s Government of Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture and Xiangyun County, and plans to invest in the “integrated base project of lithium battery cathode materials with an annual output of 200000 tons” in Xiangyun County Economic and Technological Development Zone, Dali.
On the same day, Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) announced that the company plans to invest 60 million yuan to Anhui Haida new materials Co., Ltd. through its holding subsidiary to hold 60% of its equity. At the same time, the company has signed investment cooperation agreements with Haida new materials and Wangjiang economic development zone. Haida new materials plans to invest 510 million yuan to build a “100000 ton annual negative material powder production base project” in Wangjiang Economic Development Zone to build the company’s negative material raw material supply, production and processing base.
Minsheng securities predicts that in 2025, the total battery demand in China and the world will be 913gwh and 1890gwh respectively, and the annual compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 45% and 47% respectively; In 2025, the total demand for negative electrodes in China and the world will be 913000 tons and 1.89 million tons respectively, and the annual compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 45% and 47% respectively.
