Today (January 27), the opening of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fluctuated, and then the consistency of the stock index fluctuated downward. With the large financial support, the stock index stopped falling and maintained a weak shock pattern. Judging from the disk, nearly two shares fell in 4000 cities, and the weight and subject stocks showed a general fall. Only the coal and Baijiu sectors showed a relatively lower performance, and the local money effect dropped sharply.
YueKai securities mentioned that investors should "have a long view of scenery". Under the theme of "focus on me", steady growth is still the focus of the market in the near future. Whether it is broad money or credit, the policy underpinning economy is worth looking forward to. For the future market, the pre festival market pursues certainty, the performance of blue chip in the large market is better than that of small and medium-sized markets, the policy expectation after the festival rises again, and the market turns to pursue high elasticity.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] coal
Kaiyuan Securities believes that the current winter coal consumption demand has entered the seasonal peak stage, the daily consumption and replenishment demand may gradually weaken before the Spring Festival, and the current rebound space of coal price may be limited; However, from the supply side, after the peak season comes to an end, the policy focus may again focus on ensuring safety. At present, the production intensity of ultra-high load is unsustainable, superimposed with the impact of Indonesia's coal export ban, there is a great possibility of tightening the supply after the Spring Festival.
Huabao securities mentioned that China's demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people's livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia's import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long-term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the long-term logic, the cycle fluctuation of the coal industry will be weakened and the profit space will be stable. In the long run, the limited factors of coal supply are still, the bottleneck of supply growth is obvious, the enthusiasm of coal enterprises to invest in new mines is weak, and the economy is poor, the long construction cycle of new production capacity and complicated approval procedures restrict the growth of coal production capacity, The dual carbon background determines that the coal supply will remain stable, and Sanxi and Xinjiang regions with excellent resource endowment will be strong. Enterprises with layout in such regions will continue to benefit from the process of increasing resource concentration. At the same time, the stability of coal price is very important to the healthy development of the whole industry, the periodicity of the industry is weakened, and the profit stability is enhanced, The good cash flow situation of coal enterprises in recent years has also laid a solid foundation for the in-depth development of some coal enterprises to new energy, new materials and industries.
In the short and medium term, investment opportunities in the coal sector are prominent. The policy of increasing coal production and ensuring supply is expected to exit after the coal price is stable. Superimposed on the arduous task of six guarantees and six stabilities of macro-economy in 2022, the phased and regional economic stimulus policies may further stimulate the improvement of the enthusiasm of upstream resource products procurement and promote the investment sentiment and return on investment of the coal sector.
In addition, the transformation and development has become a highlight of coal enterprises. Power coal will face the pattern of double increase in supply and demand in the future, so as to achieve a basic balance; Coking coal sector in the future for some time or both supply and demand decline; The coke sector may realize a tight balance between supply and demand on the basis of further contraction of supply. As the basic energy, coal still plays the role of ballast in the process of energy structure transformation, which is indispensable. On the premise of providing a solid foundation for the rich cash flow of coal enterprises, they have transformed to the depth of the industrial chain and new energy and new materials on the basis of consolidating their main business, which has become a major investment highlight of the sector in the future. []
[Topic 2] bank
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that the trend of 1q bank sector was better in history, and the relative return of bank stocks in January may be better. From the performance of the banking sector in the past five years, in addition to the abnormal impact of the epidemic in 2020, the growth of the banking sector in 2017-2019 and the first quarter / January of 2021 were 4.0% / 4.5%, - 2.1% / 12.5%, 4.0% / 8.2% and 11.9% / 7.5% respectively. Among them, in January, the banking sector ranked among the top five sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1, 6.4, 1.9 and 2.8pct respectively, with better relative earnings performance.
According to the investment suggestions, the institution further analyzed that ① the high-quality listed banks that were obviously impacted by the real estate market in the early stage have a more obvious bottom shape after stock price adjustment and have better flexibility; ② Continue to recommend high-quality listed banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions. These banks benefit from the advantages of regional economic environment, and there is greater certainty that the credit supply will continue to be "increased in volume and stable in price".
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) also said that bank stocks rebounded significantly and the market opened in the first quarter. Looking forward to 2022, wide credit is the boundary of market consensus. It is difficult to determine the subject and scale of wide credit outside the boundary. However, from the perspective of structure, in the incremental credit structure since 2019, the proportion of individual non housing loans has gradually increased, which is the only reliable logic from top to bottom. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) are recommended.
In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the reduction of policy interest rate in January reflects the policy intention of the central bank to grasp the monetary policy window at the beginning of the year to promote steady growth, credit and expectation. At present, China's economic operation is in the rebalancing stage of vivid weakening within macro policy overweight hedging. For bank investment, the interest rate cut operation is expected to affect the interest rate spread expectation in the short term and be beneficial to the consolidation of asset quality in the medium term. It is suggested to lengthen the time dimension to examine the allocation value of the sector.
[Theme 3] securities companies
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that policies are frequent, and they are optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
Xiangcai Securities pointed out that in terms of policy, it is expected that this year's "steady growth" policy is expected to continue to work, and the liquidity environment is stable and loose, supporting market transactions. The full implementation of the stock issuance and registration system has been steadily promoted, the capital market has continued to expand, and the prosperity of the industry has improved. In terms of valuation, the current valuation of Pb in the securities industry is 1.7x, which is in the 40% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years. The sector still has valuation repair space. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management.
AVIC Securities believes that in the long run, there are multiple positive factors with strong certainty in the securities sector: first, there is a high probability of performance. The annual report performance of 2021 will be announced one after another. From the three quarterly reports, the performance of public funds, market trading volume, the scale of funds raised by investment banks and other market performance, most listed securities companies have a high probability of achieving high growth in 2021. At present, the four securities companies that have announced the performance forecast have achieved significant performance growth.
Second, the main line of "steady growth" is clear. For China's economic development situation in 2022, the central bank, the Ministry of finance, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments will focus on "steady growth", and it is expected that the "steady growth" policy will continue to work in the future. Therefore, we expect that with the support of stable growth policy, the US interest rate hike will not have much impact on China's liquidity environment in the short term.
Third, the wealth management track has a long slope and thick snow, which is still an important focus of the industry in the future. In 2022, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , Nanjing Securities Co.Ltd(601990) and Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) have successively passed the qualification of fund investment advisory business exhibition. At present, 17 securities companies have conducted fund investment advisory business exhibition. To sum up, we believe that the current negative factors have limited impact on the long-term growth of the securities sector, so we are not afraid of short-term disturbance. []
[theme four] Baijiu
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said Baijiu Baijiu is still a good release in the near future. Currently, the high-end liquor sector will continue to push hard. High-end Baijiu will continue to usher in catalysis, with emphasis on Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers in the Baijiu sector and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The performance stability in 2022 is still strong.
In addition, Guosheng securities mentioned that the Spring Festival peak season of mobile sales is coming, the payment collection of famous liquor enterprises is good, the peak season of price is stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation. Some areas at the mobile sales end are still repeatedly affected by the epidemic. After the epidemic, terminal stores generally adopt the way of reducing inventory and increasing the frequency of purchase, and the real needs of consumers and terminal mobile sales still need to be observed, After new year's day, the delivery of terminal goods is accelerated, and the channel inventory of most famous liquor enterprises is benign. It is expected that the Spring Festival is still expected to achieve benign growth.
Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) pointed out that Baijiu cycle in 2022 continued to boom, price rises to boost performance, grasp structural opportunities. First, the preferred high-end: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The competitive pattern of high-end Baijiu is stable, and the demand is strong. The superposition of the expected price increases is the preferred target for the bottom storage.
Second, high elasticity secondary high-end is preferred: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) . Flying prices opened the price ceiling, the price of the high-end Baijiu moved upward, and the second high-end expansion momentum was strong. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) are in the process of national expansion. The endogenous potential energy of sales, management and channels are gradually strengthened, and the performance is more likely to exceed the market expectation.
Third, focus on the marginal improvement targets of Fundamentals: Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , etc. Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) equity incentive was implemented, and the product upgrading was relatively smooth, from the introduction period to the mature and large-scale period; Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) implement the employee stock ownership plan, promote the high-end in an orderly manner, and there is a large space for the expansion of the core market; Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) benefiting from the price increase effect, the real estate stripping is imminent, and the marginal improvement can be expected. []
