Today (January 27) A shares ended in a dismal end. The opening price of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated. At the beginning of the trading, the consistency of the stock index fluctuated and fell. The stock index plunged once. Under the protection of the big finance, the stock index once bottomed out. However, in the afternoon, the stock index fell again and hovered at a low level.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index fell 1.78% to 3394.25 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 2.77% to 13398.84 points; The gem index fell 3.25% to close at 2906.76. The market turnover was 823 billion yuan, and the number of falling stocks exceeded 4400.
On the disk, led by banking stocks, low-cost blue chips such as coal, airports, ports and shipping resisted the decline, while industries such as computer equipment, precious metals, tourism hotels, cultural media, decoration and communication equipment led the decline. In terms of subject matter stocks, covid-19 drugs stand out, with the decline of digital economy, electronic license sector and smart government.
In terms of capital, the central bank reported on the 27th that in order to maintain stable liquidity before the Spring Festival, the people’s Bank of China launched a 200 billion yuan 14 day reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on January 27, 2022, and the bid winning interest rate remained unchanged at 2.25%. Today, 100 billion yuan of the central bank’s reverse repurchase expired, so the central bank’s move achieved a net capital investment of 100 billion yuan, which was the ninth consecutive operation day.
hot sector
Top 10 of industry sector increase
Top 10 of industry sector decrease
Top 10 of concept sector increase
Top 10 of concept sector decrease
individual stock monitoring
Top 10 net inflow of main force
Top 10 net outflow of main force
northbound funds
southbound fund
message plane
1. According to the news on the Chinese government website on January 27, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the modernization of market supervision. It is proposed to strengthen the construction of advanced measurement system with quantum measurement as the core, accelerate the establishment of a new generation of national measurement standards, promote the upgrading of social public measurement standards, and formulate a number of important measurement technical specifications related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood. Reform and improve the management systems of type approval, verification and legal supervision of measuring instruments, dynamically adjust the catalogue of measuring instruments under compulsory management, and improve the supervision system of commodity quantity and measurement data. Further promote the reform, innovation and development of measurement technology institutions, explore effective ways to build the measurement calibration market and calibration institutions, standardize the measurement calibration market, and meet the market demand for quantity traceability and testing services. Establish a national demonstration base for the construction and application of measurement data, and improve the national capacity of industrial measurement and testing and energy measurement. Actively participate in international measurement comparison and improve internationally recognized calibration and measurement capabilities.
2. According to the interface news report, at the press conference after the interest rate resolution, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell personally admitted that the Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates at the March meeting. At the same time, he also pointed out that “without threatening the labor market, there is a lot of room to raise interest rates. It is not ruled out that interest rates will be raised at every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.”
3. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2021, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 8709.21 billion yuan, an increase of 34.3% over the previous year, 39.8% over 2019 and an average increase of 18.2% over the two years. In December 2021, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 734.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
4. According to the China Fund report, the public offering is firmly bullish and takes out “real gold and silver” to support the market. Fund Jun found that on January 26 alone, China Europe and Hua’an funds announced a large purchase of their own funds. According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of 2022, as many as 22 fund companies have implemented self purchase or announced self purchase plans, and some company investment researchers and fund managers have subscribed or applied for new and old products, involving an amount of more than 600 million yuan.
institutional perspective
For the current market, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that at the end of the adjustment, it is not pessimistic about the A-share market in the next quarter. The downward pressure on China’s economy is increasingly apparent. In the next half of the year, the economy is in the bottom seeking stage, and the economic probability will reach the bottom in the middle of next year. The downward performance has become the unanimous expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. In the absence of changes in fundamentals and policies, the reasons for the obvious adjustment of the market (especially institutional heavy position stocks) before and after new year’s day are highly likely to be related to the capital game. From historical experience, this adjustment lasts about 2-3 weeks. At present, the adjustment of heavy position stocks may be coming to an end.
Earlier, Anxin securities released the Research Report “darkness before dawn: don’t lose heart, don’t wait”. The research report mentioned that there are three factors that suppress market risk appetite: Fundamentals, incremental funds and the Fed’s interest rate hike. We tend to think that from the perspective of relevance, or repression, the primary factor is the concern about fundamentals under the background of unclear efforts to stabilize growth, followed by incremental funds, and finally the Fed’s interest rate hike. In our assessment, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates in advance led to peripheral factors such as US bond interest rates is secondary, mainly due to the assessment of fundamentals under the expectation of steady growth and the current assessment of incremental funds.
In addition, the agency further analyzed that we should not be pessimistic at present. The recovery of market sentiment needs to wait for key signals such as clear policy expectations, improvement of incremental funds and stability of the external environment. After the Spring Festival, mid February (social finance data) or an important decision point, “value building and growth singing”, this round of spring agitation is still worth looking forward to.
Before that, we maintained a high winning rate by looking for the judgment idea of the elastic sector in the undervalued value, and the deviation between the increase income and the fundamentals will converge. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the varieties whose annual performance forecast exceeds the expectation: chemical industry (including traditional varieties +), nonferrous metals, transportation (including express delivery), building materials, electronics and securities companies; The theme focuses on the transformation of undervalued central enterprises + emerging industries.
YueKai Securities believes that the follow-up downside space is limited, and the market is close to the end of adjustment. Investors should “look at the long scenery”. Under the theme of “focus on me”, steady growth is still the focus of the market in the near future. Whether it is broad money or credit, the policy underpinning economy is worth looking forward to. For the future market, the pre festival market pursues certainty, the performance of blue chip in the large market is better than that of small and medium-sized markets, the policy expectation after the festival rises again, and the market turns to pursue high elasticity. It is expected that steady growth in the first quarter is still the main market, and it is expected to take the lead in opening a wave of market dominated by large cap stocks.
