Looking back on 2021, China's auto market still bucked the trend and handed over a positive growth "report card" under multiple challenges such as the shortage of chip supply and the rise of raw material prices.
On January 12, 2022, the data released by China Automobile Industry Association showed that in 2021, China's automobile production and sales were 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively, ending the downward trend for three consecutive years since 2018. Among them, new energy vehicles became the biggest bright spot, with annual sales of more than 3.5 million vehicles, and the market share increased to 13.4%.
In addition, driven by factors such as the recovery of the international market and the improvement of the competitiveness of Chinese brands, China's automobile exports have performed well. Since April 2021, China has refreshed historical records for many times, with an annual export of more than 2 million vehicles for the first time, realizing a breakthrough that has hovered around 1 million vehicles for many years.
"The performance of China's auto market in 2021 is generally in line with expectations. We have an overall view of China's auto market before. The sales volume in 2019 is the peak in the past few years; the sales volume will decline in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic; in 2021, the sales volume of China's auto market can basically return to the level in 2019." Recently, Zheng Yun, global senior partner of Roland Berger and vice president of Greater China, commented on the performance of China's auto market in 2021 in an exclusive interview with China business daily. In addition, Zheng Yun also shared his views on many hot topics in the industry, such as the sailing of Chinese auto enterprises and the 20th anniversary of China's accession to the WTO.
the growth rate of car market in 2022 is expected to be between 4% ~ 4.5%
China business daily : how to view the impact of chip and other issues on China's auto market?
Zheng Yun: on the whole, the shortage of chips has brought some volatility impact to the market. At present, the consensus on the issue of chips is that the shortage will ease by the second half of 2022. In the medium and long term, the problem of chip supply will not have a particularly big constraint on the development of the whole automobile market.
For many chip manufacturers, the problem of chip shortage also allows them to see a market opportunity. Because compared with traditional fuel vehicles, electric vehicles, especially intelligent electric vehicles, will have higher demand for chips, which will be rapidly improved at the supply end.
China business daily : how to view the changes in the competition pattern of new energy market in recent years?
Zheng Yun : I think the new energy market has experienced three stages: the first stage is to stimulate the market demand by means of terminal subsidies. The second stage is to gradually introduce the concept of "double points policy" into the market from 2019, that is, it is hoped to form a balance between the main engine manufacturers around double points from the simple purchase subsidy at the policy end. The third stage is to stimulate the market by consumers themselves. From the current situation, we can position 2021 as the first year of new energy driven by the market. This is because from 2018 to 2020, there will be more than 1 million new energy vehicles every year. These seed users will play a good demonstration role for consumers around them, and can dispel some of their worries about the mileage anxiety and safety of new energy vehicles.
In addition, the laying of basic charging piles for enterprises such as Xinxing charging, cloud fast charging and special calls, as well as some cooperation between the host plant and them, will also clearly outline that electric vehicle users will not have too much inconvenience in the charging link in the future. The combination of the above factors will make consumers feel the product competitiveness of new energy vehicles. It is also a clear development trend that new energy vehicles will replace traditional fuel vehicles on a large scale in the future.
China Business Daily: what is the forecast of the trend of China's auto market in 2022?
Zheng Yun: subject to the influence of chips, the growth rate of passenger cars will be suppressed in 2021. However, with the easing of chip problems in the second half of 2022, the growth rate of China's auto market in 2022 may be about 4% ~ 4.5%, which should be slightly higher than that in 2021. If the time axis is lengthened, China's auto market will be an incremental market with a compound annual growth of about 3%. Of course, the market structure will change to some extent. For example, the overall penetration rate of the new energy market will climb rapidly in the next few years.
GDP growth is the premise of automobile consumption
China business daily : 2021 is the 20th anniversary of China's accession to the WTO. How do you view the development of China's auto market in the past 20 years?
Zheng Yun : the development of China's auto market in the past 20 years can be seen from two perspectives: first, in the initial stage, we drew on some experience brought by foreign countries, possibly in the design end, including the production end and sales mode. We introduced some good practices and processes of overseas auto industry. Second, from 2015, China's auto market began to reverse export, and some new auto product functions, including some new sales models, as well as some ways and methods of user operation, were well reverse exported to other countries around the world.
Why has China's auto market developed rapidly in the past 20 years? I think, on the one hand, it benefits from the rapid growth of GDP; On the other hand, the dividend brought by population growth has also been fully captured. In addition, for many automobile brands outside China, the Chinese market is the core market that wants to occupy a place.
On the whole, the fast-growing consumption capacity, relatively abundant supply, and some new elements are added to the automobile under the impact of the new trend, which makes the overall sales volume of China's automobile market have a very big explosion. Of course, the key to the rapid development of China's auto market in the past 20 years is that the growth rate of GDP is a major premise. Consumers means that when we have the ability to consume, we will naturally have very strong consumer demand.
China business daily : at the beginning of China's entry into WTO, one of the industries that China was most worried about was the automobile industry. But in practice, the impact on the automobile industry is not large. What are the reasons behind this?
