The three major A-share indexes collectively closed up today, with the Shanghai index rising 0.66% to close at 3455.67 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.70% to close at 13780.30 points; The gem index rose 0.99% to close at 3004.41 points, recovering the 3000 point mark. The market turnover continued to shrink, with only 794.2 billion yuan today. The industry sector rose more or fell less, the wind power equipment sector rose sharply, the engineering construction and securities sector led the rise, and the tourism hotel and medical service sector led the decline.
Today’s news:
1. Four securities newspapers comment on the stock market: stand up the backbone of a shares
2. Voice from the CBRC! Promote the virtuous circle of the real estate industry, set up “traffic lights” for capital and crack down on “unlicensed driving”
3. In 2022, centralized mining will be “accelerated and expanded”: the seventh batch of national procurement with volume will be launched
4. The performance of 94 lithium battery concept stocks in 2021 is expected. Upstream enterprises of the industrial chain are busy “grabbing mines” and downstream enterprises are busy expanding production
5. Emergency response of listed companies to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine! List of relevant companies exposed
6. The fixed growth results of the 100 billion giant were released, and big names such as Hillhouse, Gaoyi and niusan gathered to issue the fixed growth plan for 39 shares during the year
7. Survey: 70% of investors are optimistic about the market this year! More than 50% of investors made profits last year!
8. The Ministry of Commerce and other six departments jointly issued the guidance on high quality implementation (RCEP)
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
According to the analysis of China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) , affected by the expectation of accelerated policy contraction of the Federal Reserve and the panic decline of US stocks, the risk appetite of A-Shares is also relatively low, the market trading volume is low, and the wait-and-see mood before the festival is heavy. In the policy window period of the local two sessions and the national two sessions, it is suggested to continue to grasp the main line of steady growth + undervalued market. First, the real estate chain benefiting from the loose margin of real estate policy, including real estate enterprises, property, household appliances, decoration building materials, etc; Second, new and old infrastructure directly related to steady growth; Third, banks and insurance companies with high-quality hedging attribute + valuation performance and outstanding cost performance.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that from now on to the Spring Festival, the “entanglement” between short-term hedging demand and medium-term policies still exists, and the probability of market shock stabilizing is high. From the end of the festival to the window period of the two sessions, the suppression of short-term hedging is lifted, the strength of medium-term and long-term policies is expected to increase, and A-Shares are expected to rebound in stages after “squatting”, That is, enter the first half of the second stage within the range from the end of the policy to the end of the valuation (increased policy efforts and market repair).
Guosheng Securities believes that the recent reduction of reverse repo and LPR interest rates are positive given by the policy side, indicating that the end of market policy has come, and the end of sentiment is still brewing. The Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in the early morning of Thursday is particularly important. After the market expected hawkish remarks are landed, it will enter a negative window period in the short term, or open a wave of “spring agitation”. In terms of operation, the valuation of some boom track stocks has been adjusted to a reasonable stage. We can pay attention to the new energy vehicles, photovoltaic downstream, infrastructure, real estate, banking and other steady growth sectors that are expected to reverse this year due to the rise of raw material prices last year. We can also focus on the theme concepts such as digital economy, specialization, innovation and meta universe.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that at present, China’s economy is in the scenario of simultaneous decline of growth rate and inflation rate, which generally corresponds to weak stocks and strong debts; After stabilizing and recovering, the equity market will have a new round of opportunities. The US economy is overheating and is trying to control inflation. Overheating scenarios generally correspond to bond bear market and stock bull to bear market. Looking to the future, the best measure for the United States to deal with inflation is actually to accelerate energy production, rather than the Federal Reserve to accelerate contraction, which may lead to further decline of the U.S. economy and fall into the risk of stagflation. The stagflation environment is a bear for both stocks and bonds. For China, the current corporate earnings expectations have declined, so the stock market has performed poorly. However, a new round of steady growth policies have been introduced one after another. If the recovery can be realized in 2021q1, a new round of opportunities should appear in the equity market. At the same time, as China’s trade surplus, capital inflow and RMB exchange rate remain high, it has the ability to implement the “I-oriented” policy and resist external shocks to a certain extent.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that near the Spring Festival, A-Shares were affected by the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the uncertainty of the news before the long holiday. The power of incremental funds to enter the market was insufficient, and A-Shares still showed the characteristics of structural market. Since December, China’s steady growth policy has made forward-looking efforts. The central bank has cut reserve requirements and interest rates one after another, and there is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts. The market is in a “wide money” window period, and macro liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. Structurally, “wide credit” is the ultimate demand of the central bank for wide money. Infrastructure and real estate are important. The real estate regulation policy is expected to be marginal loose. Urban renewal, affordable housing construction and new infrastructure are the key directions. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to focus on “undervalued blue chip”: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as banks and building materials; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on topics: digital economy, meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
