Xinhua Finance and economics, Beijing, January 26 – the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai rose and fell at the high level in the overseas market, the central bank carried out 200 billion yuan 14 day reverse repurchase, realized a net investment of 100 billion yuan, the net inflow of capital in the North exceeded 1.1 billion yuan, and most industry segmentation indexes reversed the trend of “general decline + sharp decline + sharp decline” in the previous trading day to a strong upward attack, The long shadow hammerhead line of inertial bottom sounding is given, which is a strong feature of buying and undertaking in the important support areas of the five wave falling structure to the previous low point, which is conducive to the stable operation in the last two trading days before the festival.
From the perspective of the Shanghai index, the five wave sell-off structure of the Shanghai index is close to 3393 points, the first-line strong support, and the trading volume has shrunk significantly. The back pressure on the 5th line is locked at 3500 points, which has reached the – 32 area in coordination with the weak operation of the MACD index. It is clear that there will be a bottom reading opportunity after the inertia bottom tomorrow; The gem index hit the bottom in five waves, refused to break through the strong support of 2950 points, made it clear that the trading volume shrank, the golden fork of MACD index was imminent, and the line bottom deviated from the structure in 60 minutes, and the bottom structure was built above the support of 2865 points; Combined with the operation of a large number of cross star lines in the extended wave of the Kechuang 50 index and the reduced long shadow hammer line at the end of the five waves of the Shenzhen composite index, it is expected that the capital market is expected to form a phased stabilization and recovery trend under the stimulation of favorable policies and the maintenance of stability, and the red market welcomes the “New Spring Festival of the year of the tiger”.
At the close of the session, ultra-high voltage, sodium battery, superconducting concept, hjt battery, electrical equipment, warehousing and logistics, oil, energy storage, charging pile, smart grid, wind energy, photovoltaic and other sectors led the rise, with large-scale net capital inflow, with an average volatility of more than 2%, stimulating Shenzhen and Shanghai stocks to close the “golden needle bottom” K line and release the signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 64 stocks rose by more than 9%, 185 stocks rose by more than 5%, 528 stocks rose by more than 3%, 49 stocks fell by more than 9%, 141 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 308 stocks fell by more than 3%. It is expected that there will be fierce long short game in the last two trading days before the festival, or there will be inertia bottom and bottom grinding due to the external “black swan” event, However, based on the multidimensional resonance analysis logic of China’s economic fundamentals, the future operation does not have the fundamental and capital conditions for long-term decline. Therefore, investors do not need to be too nervous and panic.
In terms of news, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed that it was necessary to determine the direction of industrial structure adjustment and the “double carbon” action plan, and not to go in one step and “one size fits all”; We should give more prominence to promoting the development of new and clean energy, and actively and orderly develop light energy, silicon energy, hydrogen energy and renewable energy; Promote the deep integration of energy technology with modern information, new materials and advanced manufacturing technology, and explore new modes of energy production and consumption; Accelerate the development of new energy sources such as wind energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , biomass energy, geothermal energy, marine energy and hydrogen energy with economies of scale, coordinate hydropower development and ecological protection, and actively develop nuclear power in a safe and orderly manner; Strictly control the carbon emission of new projects, and resolutely curb the blind development of high energy consumption, high emission and low-level projects; Vigorously promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries such as iron and steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemical, chemical industry and building materials, and accelerate the innovation and digital transformation of low-carbon processes in the industrial field; Strengthen the resource utilization of waste, vigorously develop circular economy and reduce the waste of energy and resources; Adhere to overall planning, ensure energy security, industrial chain supply chain security and food security while reducing carbon, and ensure the normal life of the people.
The State Council meeting stressed that at present, China’s economy is facing new downward pressure. It is necessary to adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, implement the new development concept, build a new development pattern, promote high-quality development, strengthen macro policies around the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees”, put steady growth in a more prominent position, insist on not engaging in “flood irrigation”, and pay attention to interval regulation and targeted regulation, Through tax cuts and fee reductions, we will support the relief development of market players, difficult industries and manufacturing innovation, boost market confidence, deepen reform and opening up, stabilize the macro-economic market and keep the economy running within a reasonable range; Focus on key areas and key links, promote the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and constantly achieve new results. We should strengthen the coordination of innovation chain and industrial chain, accelerate the construction of Beijing International Science and technology innovation center, and support Tianjin to accelerate the construction of Norinco International Cooperation Ltd(000065) shipping hub.
The Ministry of Commerce and other six departments jointly issued the agreement on high-quality implementation of the regional comprehensive economic partnership
(RCEP), strengthen high-end industrial chain cooperation and manufacturing project cooperation, cultivate diversified global supply chain networks, give full play to China’s industrial and market advantages, actively promote enterprises to carry out close cooperation around industrial chain supply chain links of common concern in RCEP region, and promote enterprises to carry out R & D and technical exchanges, Further promote the complementary advantages and deep integration of high-end industrial chains; Promote more use of RMB for settlement of trade and investment activities in RCEP region, help market players reduce exchange costs and avoid exchange rate fluctuation risks; Guide financial institutions to improve the level of financial services, support financial institutions to innovate RMB trading, investment and hedging products, and provide convenient and efficient cross-border RMB financial products and services for market players; Implement the deployment of the outline of the 14th five year plan to orderly promote the opening-up of telecommunications, Internet, education, culture, medical treatment and other fields, and promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry and enhance industrial competitiveness.
In combination with the new and stronger combined tax and fee reduction measures to be implemented by the Ministry of Finance in 2022, promote investment in equipment renewal and technological transformation of manufacturing enterprises, increase transfer payments to local governments, and continue the tax and fee reduction measures to support small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households due at the end of 2021; The CBRC actively develops industrial digital finance, sets up “traffic lights” for capital in the financial field, builds a “firewall” between industrial capital and financial capital, strictly prevents bank insurance funds from being used for blind “leverage”, safely handles risks in the financial field, and resolutely holds the bottom line of not generating systemic financial risks; Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau focuses on avoiding delisting, information disclosure violations, corporate governance, mergers and acquisitions, science and innovation board and other areas of regulatory focus. It is expected to adjust the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock indexes with sufficient momentum to test the kinetic energy and potential energy of the low point, but under the background of important strong support approaching, It should be bargain hunting to grasp the opportunity to build a position.
The author believes that Tongzhou District of Beijing and Shougang fund have successfully signed a 5 billion yuan industrial guidance fund for the urban sub center and a 10 billion yuan green infrastructure investment fund for Shougang. The urban sub center will build a yuan Universe Development Fund. The three funds will strengthen the guidance of scientific and technological innovation and guide the layout of innovation chain and industrial chain in the urban sub center and surrounding areas; The action plan of Shanghai for building a new high in the network security industry (2021-2023) was officially released to support key enterprises to focus on new fields such as meta universe, biometric security and emerging communication, new architectures such as trusted computing, zero trust security and federal learning, new technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, as well as cryptography and information innovation, Strengthen the R & D and industrialization of key technologies; Shenzhen will relax market access in relevant fields such as data element trading and cross-border data business, uniformly plan, build and operate a new integrated infrastructure for charging, replacing, storing and releasing new energy vehicles, strengthen the content control and operation management of territorial online games, explore the use of digital RMB for transaction settlement, and establish relevant capital exchange with Hong Kong and Macao Favorable regional economic policies such as market interconnection mechanism and clarifying the strategic emerging industries of the boom track will be the focus and investment focus of institutional funds this year.
In view of this, it is recommended that secondary market investors actively grasp the core benefit sectors such as semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial motherboards, 5g, artificial intelligence, Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, metauniverse, communication equipment, new energy vehicles, it equipment, UHV, industrial Internet, etc, In the bargain hunting layout at the end of the five waves, it should be possible to reap the investment income of “cross year red envelope”. (Note: the above information is only for reference and not for specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. Zhang Cuixia’s qualification certificate: a0680620080009)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2022-1-26)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-1-26)
