At the opening of trading on January 26, A-Shares swept away yesterday's haze, and the three major stock indexes opened high and fell back after going high. As of midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14% and the gem index fell 0.24%. Wind power and UHV sectors are stronger, while photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and electric power sectors are better. Adjustment of digital economy, pharmaceutical and cro sectors. The net purchase of northbound funds exceeded 2.1 billion yuan.
However, the sharp adjustment of the previous day still haunted investors. On January 25, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.58% and fell 3500 points. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index both fell by more than 2.6%. The northward capital is converted into net outflow.
In the view of institutional people, the tense geographical situation became the main fuse of the A-share correction on January 25, superimposing factors such as the credit worries of real estate enterprises and the twists and turns of covid-19 epidemic, which suppressed the risk appetite of investors. In the short term, the peripheral market may still disturb a shares.
It is worth noting that as of January 26, the NASDAQ index of US stocks has fallen by more than 13% since the beginning of the year, the largest monthly decline in more than 40 years. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, pointed out that this round of decline in US stocks is partly due to the reversal of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has gradually shifted from easing to tightening. Although the interest rate has not been raised, the first interest rate meeting in 2022 will be held this week, which makes investors worry that the Fed may release hawkish signals. The financial report data of American listed companies that recently released the financial report for the fourth quarter of 2021 are mixed, which also affects the performance of stock prices.
"In 2022, high-risk assets were abandoned to some extent because investors are worried about the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Recently, the situation in Ukraine has been volatile, and the Russian stock market has fallen by more than 10% a day, which has also had a certain impact on the European stock market. The tense relationship between the United States and Russia will still have a certain impact on the short-term market trend." He further pointed out.
negative factors outside China led to A-share decline
Over the past month, A-Shares have adjusted continuously. On January 25, influenced by the overseas market, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index recorded the largest decline in 2022.
On January 24, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq index of the United States once plunged by nearly 4% and 5%, and the 10-year US bond interest rate also fell to around 1.71%. Although U.S. stocks achieved a V-shaped rebound on the same day, and the main indexes turned red at the close, the panic still spread to the A-share market.
On January 25, the three major indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen fell after opening low in the morning, and there was a lack of hot spots on the disk; After noon, the decline of major indexes further expanded. At the close, the Shanghai index fell 2.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83% and the gem index fell 2.67%; CSI 300, SSE 50 and Kechuang 50 also fell by more than 2%. From the concept sector, according to wind data, on January 25, only individual sectors such as Lianban, air transportation and gold jewelry rose, while most other concept sectors fell significantly. Traditional industry indexes fell in full. Among them, consumer services, national defense and military industry, transportation, banking and other industries fell relatively slightly, while media, coal, computer, communication and other industries fell significantly.
The reporter of China Business Daily found that the institutions generally believed that the market change on January 25 was caused by bad factors outside China. According to the analysis of Jiangxi Jdl Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(688057) strategy researcher of Equity Research Department of golden eagle fund, the A-share market callback on January 25 may be triggered by geopolitical tension, especially in the fragile stage of weak market risk appetite at the end of 2021 and continuous decline in the early stage of the market.
Specifically, in terms of external factors, "on January 24, major overseas markets were originally under the pressure of worrying about the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve. Market sentiment was relatively fragile, and geopolitical tensions became the fuse to further suppress risk appetite." Jiangxi Jdl Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(688057) further points out.
The relevant person of China Europe Fund said that, on the one hand, the tension in Ukraine has been escalating recently, and the international capital market has made a more violent response to it. The major stock indexes have fluctuated sharply, and the increasingly globalized Chinese market has also been affected to some extent, resulting in a sharp decline in theme concept stocks without real performance support. On the other hand, since the beginning of the year, the hawks of the Federal Reserve have taken a tough stance and constantly emphasized the position of inflation and the prospect of raising interest rates, which greatly increased the possibility of raising interest rates many times during the year. The bottom of the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rebounded, and the valuation of A-share growth stocks fell sharply through the impact of the valuation of US stock growth stocks.
As for the internal factors, the person explained that this week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival. The transaction of China's A-share market often shrinks before the festival. Under the current market style shift and the reconfiguration of institutional investors, the decline of market funds is easy to amplify the potential volatility before the festival. Although China's loose policy is constantly transmitting confidence to the market, the transmission of substantive measures may still take some time to show results.
At the same time, "The credit default risk of real estate enterprises still puzzles the market. Recently, a real estate developer announced an overall default of overseas debt, and high-frequency data show that real estate sales, investment and other data may weaken further in January. The market is worried that the credit risk problem of real estate enterprises may spread. In addition, the market is worried that the strength of steady growth policy faces more constraints, which is less than expected, or the time point is later than expected 。 Although various ministries and commissions have made significant efforts in stabilizing growth recently, the market may still be relatively pessimistic under the emotional inertia until the forward-looking indicators such as social finance, credit, real estate and infrastructure have not been significantly improved. " Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund insiders said.
