A shares continue the callback trend since the new year. On January 25, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.58%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.83% and the gem index fell 2.67%. The Shanghai index recorded its biggest one-day decline since last year, and the gem index fell by 10.46% this year and fell below the integer mark of 3000 points.
Some institutional people interviewed by the securities times believe that the short-term peripheral market has become the most important factor disturbing a shares. Whether it is the Fed’s interest rate hike or geopolitical fluctuations, they have had an impact on market sentiment. However, many institutions believe that many stocks have entered the range of matching performance and valuation, and the cost performance has gradually appeared. Moreover, the government still has many tools to stabilize growth, so there is no need to panic about the current position.
A shares “break through the new year”
Since the beginning of the year, affected by the expectation of overseas interest rate hikes, the yield of US bonds has continued to rise, coupled with the fermentation of geopolitical risks, and the overseas market has fluctuated sharply. Among the three major US stock indexes, Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S & P 500 have fallen by 5.4%, 11.4% and 7.5% respectively since the beginning of the year.
Under the background of accelerating global capital flows, there is a certain risk of resonance weakening between A-Shares and US stocks. Affected by this, market sentiment has weakened recently, and risk appetite has shrunk significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 5.68% since the beginning of the year. Stocks with high valuations have decreased significantly, and the related fields of steady growth have fallen against each other.
“The decline was mainly due to investors’ expectations of rising risk-free interest rates and falling corporate profits, as well as changes in investors’ risk appetite caused by geopolitics.” Wang Feng, head of fund investment advisory strategy, said in an interview with the securities times.
Specifically, inflation in the United States and China is high, and the expectation of monetary policy tightening continues to move upward. Investors are worried that the tightening of interest rates in the United States will lead to the rise of risk-free interest rates in various countries; From the perspective of corporate profits, due to the high base effect and the increasing growth pressure in China, some high boom tracks last year lowered their growth expectations for this year, resulting in a correction in the sector. However, the market has been waiting for stronger stimulus from the policy side, which has not been fulfilled in the short term. Therefore, the main line of the new market has not yet appeared, and there has been a continuous correction in the market since the beginning of the year, The market sentiment is also relatively low. Yesterday, the expected impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was superimposed, and the market fell sharply.
China Merchants Fund also believes that since mid December last year, the market has continued to adjust under the influence of many negative factors such as overseas liquidity impact and real estate credit risk. Yesterday, the market accelerated its downward exploration under the infection of overseas sentiment and fell back to the stage low.
In the medium and long term, A-Shares still have more opportunities than risks. Huaxia Fund pointed out that although the market continues to weaken in the process of fluctuation, the adjustment range and duration of this round of index are relatively limited. Judging from the nature, the probability is similar to the decline at the end of February 2021 and the beginning of March 2020, and the sustainability will not be particularly strong. It is expected that after the festival, with the repair of risk appetite, especially the appearance of the effect of stable growth policy, the market still has the opportunity to rebound.
the market is expected to stabilize and rebound
The continuous correction has impacted investors’ shareholding confidence, but from the feedback of most institutional investors, the opportunities may be more prominent after the risk is released.
AI Xiongfeng, chief strategist of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analyzed that historically, geopolitics has not had a lasting impact on global risk appetite. With the Fed raising interest rates, the expectation of shrinking the table gradually tends to stabilize, the overseas market may stabilize, the lifting of overseas adverse factors and the superposition of China’s policy friendly environment, the A-share market may usher in a stage from defensive to offensive.
“We think the bottom of the market is close.” Wang Feng admitted that from the perspective of market and policy, after the Spring Festival, the market will be active, the funds will start looking for opportunities again, the stimulus policies will be gradually upgraded and fulfilled, and the market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
Wang Feng said that from the perspective of the stock bond comparison framework, the CSI 500 index has been in the position of two standard deviations below the mean value, which means that the stock price performance is very high; From the perspective of historical data, there is no systematic risk at present, but a period with high winning rate.
Yang Yong, senior researcher of Yihe Yinfeng investment, also said: “from the current point of view, there should still be some gap from the end of the market in the past two years, but it is not far away, and the safety margin has been relatively high.”
Yang Yong believes that investors should actively look for high prosperity tracks in the industrial chain such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power in the market, and companies with relatively low valuation due to obvious oversold stock prices. In addition, there are companies whose performance in the first quarter is expected to achieve high growth, such as infrastructure and other targets. There are also some downstream companies whose difficulties reverse the target, and the cost prices of raw materials and transportation tend to be stable, resulting in improved profitability.
Most institutional people generally said that at present, investors should not be overly pessimistic and should actively respond to market changes.
Wu Qiong, research director of honeycomb fund, said: “The market decline may be caused by external sentiment, or it may be due to the fact that funds choose to sell to avoid the uncertainty of the long Spring Festival holiday. However, we believe that many stocks have entered the range where the performance and valuation match, and the cost performance has gradually appeared. Moreover, the government has many tools for steady growth that have not been used, so there is no need to panic about the current position.”
“From the perspective of investors’ response, enduring fluctuations and waiting for investment are the key to obtaining returns.” Wang Feng said that the cumulative return of the partial stock hybrid fund index in 16 years exceeded 11 times, but 72 of the 192 trading months had negative returns, and nearly 40% of the time was suffering from the decline silently. Dare to layout at critical moments and firmly wait, which will help to obtain higher returns. However, in this year’s investment, because the differentiation of extreme styles will converge, investors should maintain a more balanced position to help keep up with the changes of market styles.
