Following the "thrilling" performance of U.S. stocks overnight, the A-share market adjusted significantly on the 25th. The Shanghai index and Shenzhen Component Index fell below 3500 points and 14000 points respectively, and the gem index fell below 3000 points.
Is the adjustment coming to an end? Where will the future go? Has the investment logic of popular track changed? After the closing on the 25th, a number of fund companies intensively voiced that they were cautiously optimistic about the future market, and interpreted in detail the current market concerns.
multiple negative factor resonance
Why did the market fall more than expected? After hours, a number of fund companies urgently interpreted.
Huaxia Fund said that external risks were still the main reason for yesterday's market adjustment. Globally, investors' risk aversion has increased significantly. The short-term impact of the geopolitical crisis includes the prices of major assets such as Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , industrial metals, stocks and bonds, which also has a negative impact on the risk appetite of a shares.
China Europe Fund believes that there are three reasons for the decline on the 25th: first, due to the recent geopolitical tensions, the global capital markets have reacted violently; Second, since the beginning of the year, the hawks of the Federal Reserve have taken a tough stance, constantly emphasizing the inflation position and the expectation of raising interest rates, which greatly increases the possibility of raising interest rates many times during the year; Third, this week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival. Transactions in the A-share market often shrink before the festival. Under the background of the current market style shift and the position adjustment of institutional investors, the tightening of market funds is easy to amplify the potential volatility of the market.
In fact, the current round of decline has started since the end of last year. China Merchants Fund said that since mid December last year, with the gradual weakening of positive drive, the market has continued to adjust under the influence of many negative factors such as overseas liquidity impact. On the 25th, the market accelerated its downward exploration under the influence of overseas markets and fell back to the stage low.
Golden Eagle Fund said that the weak performance of the A-share market since the beginning of the year is a resonance reflection of multiple negative factors. On the one hand, it is the suppression of the expectation of peripheral monetary tightening. On the other hand, it is the position adjustment of institutional funds at the beginning of the year and the conservative market sentiment before the Spring Festival.
cautious optimism in the future
After the sharp fall, where will the market go? In this regard, a number of fund companies expressed cautious optimism.
Huaxia Fund said that although the market continues to weaken in the process of fluctuation, it is expected that the range and duration of this round of index adjustment are relatively limited. The probability is similar to the decline at the end of February 2021 and early March 2020, and the sustainability will not be particularly strong. It is expected that after the festival, with the repair of risk appetite, especially the effect of stable growth policy, the market still has the opportunity to rebound.
Dacheng Fund also said that the short-term market oversold, and the future market is expected to usher in repair opportunities.
China Merchants Fund analysis said that after the rapid decline, the post holiday market may be more optimistic. On the one hand, the positive factors will be gradually revised upward, the central bank will continue to actively "push forward", and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to accelerate. On the other hand, negative factors are expected to accelerate convergence. The expected impact of overseas liquidity will be gradually digested. On the whole, the current short-term risk appetite of investors has been at a low level, with limited downward space. The market may gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
"steady growth" is expected to become a structural bright spot
In the continuously declining market, the structural highlights were sensitively captured by fund companies.
Golden Eagle Fund said that before the Spring Festival, before the "steady growth" policy has not been fully implemented, the risk appetite of A-share funds is still inclined to defense. In the short term, it is more inclined to the main line of "stable growth" of undervalued Value Catalyzed by expected policies, namely bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption.
Cinda Aoyin Fund believes that the market generally fell after the beginning of the year, but the steady growth sector performed prominently and the relative income was obvious. In the future, we can pay attention to three directions: first, the repair of oversold industries such as transportation, breeding and real estate chain; Second, carbon neutralization fields, such as green power, new energy, wind power, photovoltaic, etc; Third, counter cyclical sectors such as military industry, environmental protection and construction.
China Merchants Fund takes the main line of market value and steady growth as the main line of structure in 2022. It said that with the emergence of the main line of steady growth, the redistribution of profit structure and the repair of the middle and lower reaches will become an important clue for value promotion.
Huaxia Fund analysis said that under the steady growth policy, China's economy is expected to see improvement in the first quarter, and the power investment, new energy industry chain, real estate infrastructure industry chain and digital economy related to steady growth will still be relatively prosperous. After substantial adjustment, the allocation price ratio has increased significantly.
