Looking back on Tuesday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a pattern of shock and decline as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened low in the morning and further accelerated the signs of adjustment in the afternoon. Finally, the three indexes all broke the recent low and closed at the lowest point of the day, showing a panoramic view of the weak pattern.
As mentioned in China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) , affected by the expectation of accelerated policy contraction of the Federal Reserve and the panic decline of US stocks, the risk appetite of A-Shares is also relatively low, the market trading volume is low, and the wait-and-see mood before the festival is heavy. in the policy window period of the local two sessions and the national two sessions, it is suggested to continue to grasp the main line of steady growth + undervalued market . First, the real estate chain benefiting from the loose margin of real estate policy, including real estate enterprises, property, household appliances, decoration building materials, etc; Second, new and old infrastructure directly related to steady growth; Third, banks and insurance companies with high-quality hedging attribute + valuation performance and outstanding cost performance.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that on Tuesday, the stock index fluctuated and fell below 3500 points, the volume energy rose slightly, and the selling pressure increased, it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and sort out, wait patiently for stabilization, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the sector and the change of volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As far as the future is concerned, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the European and Russian stock markets have stabilized after hours. On the whole, there is still great uncertainty about the event, and the reaction of A-Shares is a little extreme, with the long holiday approaching, the selling pressure in the last two days will be reduced. If there is a position, it is suggested to wait for a rebound . considering that there are still many uncertain factors during the long holiday, we should still be cautious when the market rebounds. At present, the fixed investment index fund may be a good choice choice .
In addition, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that from now on to the Spring Festival, the “entanglement” between short-term hedging demand and medium-term policies still exists, and the probability of market shock stabilizing is high. From the end of the festival to the window period of the two sessions, the repression of short-term hedging is lifted, the strength of medium-term and long-term policies is expected to increase, and A-Shares are expected to rebound in stages after “squatting”, That is, enter the first half of the second stage within the range from the end of the policy to the end of the valuation (increased policy efforts and market repair) .
In the main line of policy game, pan electronics corresponding to wide currency has a “bottom” downward (low chip congestion) and a “power” upward (Computer / communication and other boom climbing against the trend), and the odds are better . Pan electronics reiterated its focus on Cloud Computing – optical communication upstream and smart car midstream. The above two catalysts are clear, that is, the “14th five year plan” digital economy industry planning, the launch of the product cycle of smart car L3 level models + Huawei press conference / Apple press conference / Beijing auto show in April.
In the macro aspect, Guosheng Securities believes that the recent reduction of reverse repo and LPR interest rate are both positive from the policy side, indicating that the end of market policy has come and the end of sentiment is still brewing. The Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in the early morning of Thursday is particularly important. After the market expected hawkish remarks are landed, it will enter a negative window in the short term, Or will open a wave of “spring agitation” . In terms of operation, the valuation of some boom track stocks has been adjusted to a reasonable stage. We can pay attention to the new energy vehicles, photovoltaic downstream, infrastructure, real estate, banking and other steady growth sectors that are expected to reverse this year due to the rise of raw material prices last year. We can also focus on the theme concepts such as digital economy, specialization, innovation and meta universe.
In terms of operational strategy, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the allocation cost performance of the undervalued sector increased when the short-term market risk appetite was restrained. However, as the adjustment is gradually coming to an end, the four main investment lines after the restless market in spring deserve more attention .
First, the main growth line with high valuation elasticity supported by monetary policy and loose liquidity , we can still expect the growth style to complete the third stage of the valuation market in the restlessness of spring. The three directions include: ① green power, photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, new energy and new energy vehicle chain related to “double carbon”; ② The middle and upper reaches of semiconductors and national defense industry in the boom direction; ③ Dilemma reversal superposition growth diffusion, such as computers.
Second, policies are intensively implemented, and the main line of steady growth also has allocation opportunities . Two directions include: ① infrastructure power, such as power grid construction, transmission and distribution, UHV, etc; ② Traditional infrastructure such as building materials, steel, etc.
Third, securities companies dancing with the restless market in spring and real estate with continuous marginal improvement of policies.
Fourth, the consumer sector followed , mainly looking for opportunities along the price rise chain. The theme investment direction focuses on the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that this year, the resonance between national policy and market style may become an important investment logic and main line . The long-term strategic policies of semiconductor, carbon neutral and other countries have not changed, but due to the excessive increase in the early stage, the future performance expectations have been overdrawn, and there is still room for improvement after adjustment. Similarly, this year’s steady growth policy and sectors with low expectations will bring investment opportunities, and the emergence of new policies, new cycles and new technologies will also bring new changes, mainly in the following three directions:
First, reverse industry under low expectation : the epidemic damaged sector dominated by catering, tourism and transportation. The uncertainty of the epidemic situation may still disturb the prosperity and recovery rhythm of the industry, but as the overseas epidemic gradually comes to an end, the market expectation is becoming more and more sufficient. We think we can start to be appropriately optimistic about the subject matter with long-term growth and recovery certainty. At the same time, the most important policy guideline for the whole year is steady growth. Under this expectation, the real estate, real estate chain and infrastructure chain are expected to have favorable policy margins throughout the year.
Second, state owned enterprise reform and other asset injection : 2022 is the closing year of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, which needs to produce results. Strategic restructuring, professional integration and related mergers and acquisitions bring investment opportunities. The logic of improving the asset securitization rate is mainly to inject high-quality assets into the existing listing platform, improve the asset securitization rate of the group, and focus on the military industry sector with low asset securitization rate.
Third, the emergence of new themes : policies such as the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy and the 14th five year plan for promoting the informatization of national government affairs directly catalyze the formation of digital economy, information and innovation industry and digital currency; Metauniverse will continue to deduce or gradually spread from content and platform to hardware; The auto parts and auto intelligent industry will come out of the lack of core, and will show some performance with the improvement of the intelligent penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
These new themes will continue to perform in the process of the transformation of the stock market from capital driven to performance driven. At the same time, superimposed with the characteristics of small market value, low increase and undervalued value, once there is marginal improvement, the rebound will exceed market expectations.
To sum up, in terms of configuration, on the one hand, it is suggested to focus on the science and technology sector with strong long-term policy certainty, large industry space and accelerated domestic substitution. Although the short-term adjustment range of military industry, new energy vehicles and new energy is large, it is still the medium and long-term configuration direction of the market . On the other hand, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the new market style and new policies in the medium and short-term market.
