On January 25, the A-share market made a significant adjustment, which was believed to be the embodiment of intensifying the pre holiday risk aversion at the FOMC meeting on January 27 (Thursday). In the recent extensive exchanges between us and investors, many investors also take the “fed interest rate hike” as a very important factor in the current A-share research and judgment. The linkage of China and the United States stock markets under the background of the dislocation of China and the United States economic cycle and monetary policy in the new era has become an urgent proposition for the market. At the same time, after the adjustment of the high boom and high valuation track since December last year, the new consensus has not yet been formed in the institutional allocation, “what is the new main line?” It has also become the most confused problem in the market.
History is always surprisingly similar. Whether at the beginning of last year or this year, the Fed’s interest rate increase or the rise of US bond interest rate did have an impact on A-share and institutional behavior at multiple levels, such as emotion, capital and allocation. Looking back at the rise of US bond interest rate in early 2021, the sharp correction of core assets represented by “Mao index” led to the sharp fluctuation of the market index, and the internal differentiation in the later stage gave birth to the high boom track investment represented by “new energy”. In 2021q3, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) surpassed Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and became the largest institutional heavy position stock. At the beginning of 2022, under the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase, the technology growth stocks represented by Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have fallen by more than 11% since the beginning of the year. China’s high boom and high valuation track has been adjusted since December last year, and the quarterly report of Q4 fund also reflects that the internal division of the high boom track has begun again. Q4 institutions are still increasing their positions in Semiconductors (+ 0.46pct), and the positions in the photovoltaic industry chain remain relatively stable, while the positions in the new energy vehicle industry chain (- 1.26pct) and CXO (- 2.65pct) have been significantly reduced.
From the perspective of market impact, the Enlightenment Given by the pricing theoretical model is that the Fed’s interest rate hike has a certain suppression on the growth sector. Historically, the overall impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike and table contraction on A-Shares lies in the level of capital and risk appetite. The first interest rate hike has the greatest impact on the market and tends to be short-term impact. Later, it still depends on the Chinese environment and focuses on China’s macro and industrial policies. In the process of the Fed’s interest rate hike in 2015-2018, there was a “sector rotation effect” on the positions of public funds to a certain extent, and there was a law of growth – (the whole industry was hit and generally fell) – Pro cyclical – post cyclical. As for a shares, we believe that China has a firm attitude towards steady growth and sufficient room for macro policy maneuver. We can adhere to the principle of “focusing on ourselves”. China’s ten-year yield remains low, and the RMB exchange rate remains strong under the support of financial openness and strong exports. There is no need to worry about a large-scale withdrawal of foreign investment. Comprehensive assessment, we believe that the impact of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates on A-Shares is short-term and secondary, and there is no need to worry too much.
For the subsequent judgment on the rise of US bond yields and the high boom and high valuation track caused by the current round of fed interest rate hike, we once again emphasize that we are optimistic about the medium-term industrial trend of the high boom and high valuation track, but the internal differentiation is inevitable, and the investment opportunities will shift from a large number of Companies in most links of the industrial chain to a small number of Companies in a few links in 2021. At the same time, according to the evaluation of the current fund’s four seasons report, the allocation of public funds to the smart car industry chain showed an accelerated trend in 2021, and the position proportion increased from 4.3% in Q3 to 5.1% in Q4. From the perspective of the sub sectors of the smart car industry chain, the trend of adding smart car electronics (IGBT, etc.) is particularly obvious. The institutional position has increased from 0.4% in 2020q4 to 1.5% in 2021q4, followed by the direction of intelligent driving software and intelligent car manufacturing; In terms of intelligent manufacturing, smart grid, national defense and military industry, AR / VR and other directions have gained significant holdings in Q4; In terms of digital economy, institutional positions in the direction of meta universe have increased significantly in Q4, and institutional positions have increased significantly from 3.68% in 2021q3 to 5.62% in 2021q4. Q4 institutional positions are equipped with intelligent direction to verify our previous judgment on the “intelligent” industry trend.
Here, we firmly believe that “intelligence” is the next round of configuration direction bred after the differentiation of the high boom and high valuation track represented by “Ning portfolio”, which will become the preferred industrial track direction of A-Shares in 2022. Anxin strategy was first put forward and repeatedly emphasized the layout of “one body and two wings” of intelligent industrial track, with intelligent automobile industrial chain as the main body, intelligent manufacturing equipment (smart grid industrial chain, military industrial chain, AR / VR, intelligent numerical control, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ) and digital economy (network security, digital twin (including meta universe) and industrial Internet) as the two wings. (for details, see 2022, our choice – A-share industry track review monthly (issue 1).
Q4 increased or reduced the bid and configuration crowding: 2021Q4 active base focused on the industry, the chain changed significantly, Baijiu fever picked up, medicine was reduced. Despite the internal differentiation of Gaojing bearing track, the heat has not decreased significantly. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) still occupy the top of the list of heavy positions, and the market value of holdings accounts for 2.01% and 0.82% of the net fund value respectively. The ranking of heavy positions of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has dropped to the second place month on month (the previous value is 2.19%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) occupy the first and third heavy positions respectively, The shareholding market value accounted for 2.22% and 1.17% of the net value of the fund respectively. Although Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) are still in the top ten of heavy positions, they have decreased significantly month on month, and the pharmaceutical sector is under pressure to reduce its holdings. Combined with the central level trend and historical quantile level of positions in various industries in recent years, the historical quantile level of positions in Q3 electronics, national defense and military industry, power equipment, new energy and steel industries is higher than 90%. At the same time, the positions of commercial retail, non bank finance, household appliances, real estate and media industries are at a very low historical quantile level.
Q4 increased or reduced the bid and configuration crowding: 2021Q4 active base focused on the industry, the chain changed significantly, Baijiu fever picked up, medicine was reduced. Despite the internal differentiation of Gaojing bearing track, the heat has not decreased significantly. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) still occupy the top of the list of heavy positions, and the market value of holdings accounts for 2.01% and 0.82% of the net fund value respectively. The ranking of heavy positions of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has dropped to the second place month on month (the previous value is 2.19%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) occupy the first and third heavy positions respectively, The shareholding market value accounted for 2.22% and 1.17% of the net value of the fund respectively. Although Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) are still in the top ten of heavy positions, they have decreased significantly month on month, and the pharmaceutical sector is under pressure to reduce its holdings. Combined with the central level trend and historical quantile level of positions in various industries in recent years, the historical quantile level of positions in Q3 electronics, national defense and military industry, power equipment, new energy and steel industries is higher than 90%. At the same time, the positions of commercial retail, non bank finance, household appliances, real estate and media industries are at a very low historical quantile level.
Risk tip: there is an error in the calculation of the model and the impact of the epidemic on the global economy
