Event public funds released 2021q4 heavy position shareholding data. Since the position data of active fund 1 can better reflect the changes of market style, we screen the investment types in the data of heavy positions of public funds, and take active funds as a unified caliber to calculate and analyze the changes of fund position data.
2021q4 fund’s position in the banking sector is still in the state of low allocation, and the proportion of low allocation continues to narrow. The proportion of low allocation in 2021q4 banking sector is 3.19%, 0.09 percentage points lower than that in 2021q3. Among them, the proportion of low allocation of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks and rural commercial banks was 1.3%, 1.66% and 0.15% respectively, which was 0.1, – 0.13 and 0.04 percentage points higher than that of 2021q3. Urban commercial banks realized over allocation, and the proportion of over allocation was 0.39%, which was 0.55 percentage points higher than that of 2021q3.
The proportion of 2021q4 fund’s overall position in the banking sector has decreased, but the allocation heat of urban commercial banks has increased significantly. The total market value of 2021q4 fund’s position in banks is 78.704 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.41% compared with 2021q3, ranking 10th in CITIC’s primary industry and 2 lower than 2021q3; Positions accounted for 2.98%, down 0.43 percentage points from 2021q3; From 2011 to 2021q4, the average value of the fund’s overall position in banks was 5.74%, with a median of 5.3%. The current position proportion is at a low level since 2011. In terms of subdivided areas, the positions of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks accounted for 0.17%, 1.6%, 1.6% and 0.08% respectively, with changes of -0.01, – 0.48, 0.52 and 0.02 percentage points respectively compared with 2021q3. The positions of urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks are higher than the historical average and median, and the positions of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks are lower than the historical average and median. From 2011 to 2021q4, the average positions of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks were 1.11%, 4.21%, 0.55% and 0.07% respectively, and the median positions were 1.06%, 3.28%, 0.54% and 0.07% respectively.
Among the existing heavyweight stocks, the fund prefers 2021q4, which has prominent advantages in retail business, leading wealth management layout and significant location advantages. The banks with the highest number of heavyweight funds include China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , and the number of heavyweight funds is 472, 304, 156 and 131 respectively; The top five banks in the total market value and position ratio of heavy positions are China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) respectively. The market value of heavy positions is 27.953 billion yuan, 21.889 billion yuan, 8.118 billion yuan, 5.299 billion yuan and 3.625 billion yuan respectively, with shareholding ratios of 1.06%, 0.83%, 0.31%, 0.2% and 0.14% respectively.
The proportion of public fund positions in the investment banking sector is expected to decline, which is expected to be affected by the concerns of economic downturn and the credit risk exposure of real estate enterprises. We believe that with the increase of steady growth policy and the gradual release of macroeconomic underpinning effect, the banking industry is facing the opportunity of repairing credit demand and continuously improving asset quality. At present, a number of listed banks have disclosed the performance express of 2021, the growth rate of revenue continues to improve, the net profit maintains rapid growth, the non-performing rate and provision coverage perform well, and the overall fundamentals are stable and good, which supports the valuation. The current sector Pb is 0.65 times, which is at a historically low level and has good configuration value. We continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the banking sector and give a “recommended” rating. For individual stocks, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036), Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (00000 1), Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (601128), Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (600926) and Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (601009) are recommended.
The risk indicates that the macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, resulting in the risk of deterioration of asset quality.
