Abstract
This report mainly answers three questions: 1) why is wind power optimistic about the sub circuit of tower? 2) What are the elements of tower competition? 3) How will the future pattern evolve?
Core conclusions:
For most manufacturing industries, we spend most of our time looking for anti deflation links and targets, and wind power is no exception; In addition to focusing on the links of simultaneous increase in volume and profit, such as carbon fiber (New Technology) and bearing roller (new application scenarios, moving from China to overseas), we also focus on the relatively stable links of volume and profit (often accompanied by market share expansion), and the tower mentioned in this report is such a link.
Compared with other links of the industrial chain, the tower is a variety with relatively stable volume profit under the large-scale fan, that is, the volume damage is the smallest + the impact of raw materials is small, and the profit per ton is relatively stable. In the future, the tower industry will compete for the layout of production capacity (not simple expansion, but the mastery and utilization of resources). The core on land is to compete for the layout of production capacity. Various companies on land will adopt the multi location layout mode, and they need to compete for Wharf resources at sea. Previously, due to the limitation of transportation radius, the tower pattern was relatively scattered. At the current time point, the leading accelerated the expansion of production and the increase of market share, which is expected to bring valuation repair.
Why are you optimistic about the sub circuit of tower at the current time: stable volume and profit (less damage to consumption)
Volume: the cost reduction of large-scale is to dilute the consumption of single w materials, in which the tower is one of the links with the least damage, and bring new increment of pile foundation at sea. It is estimated that the scale of the global land market will be 5.79 million tons in 21 years and 6.31 million tons in 25 years, with a compound growth rate of 2%; The scale of the global offshore market was 4.1 million tons in 21 years and 8.87 million tons in 25 years, with a compound growth rate of 21%.
Profit: bidding is generally conducted separately from the main engine. The tower pricing method is cost plus, that is, price = steel price cost at the time of signing a single contract + stable gross profit, which is less affected by the price reduction of the whole machine factory. The production is short (one month), and there may be risk exposure only between contract signing and procurement. On the whole, it is less affected by the price of raw materials.
Track profit margin: assuming that the steel price remains stable, the global tower profit margin is expected to be 8.7 billion yuan in 21 years and 13.9 billion yuan in 25 years, with a compound growth rate of 12.3%, and the increment mainly comes from the sea. Compared with other large-scale and severely diluted links (such as engine hood), it is estimated that the 20% compound growth of the wind power industry in 21-25 years will be completely offset by the damage of consumption, which is reflected in the lack of growth in the space of subdivided links.
Competitive elements of Tower Industry: capacity layout (control and utilization of resources rather than simple expansion)
The matching of tower and fan is generally designed by the main engine factory according to the fan model and terrain, while the tower enterprise is only responsible for production and manufacturing, which can be basically regarded as the standard product. In the cost side, there is little difference among direct materials (accounting for 80%), labor (5%) and manufacturing expenses (5%). However, the particularity of the tower is heavy and there is a transportation radius. Therefore, the core of the tower competition is the capacity layout. The reasonable layout of the capacity will dilute the freight, and then open the gap at the profit side. The best profit per ton is 1000 yuan, while the poor is 500 yuan.
Land: the transportation radius of 500 kilometers and finding the best layout point are essentially the assessment of comprehensive ability. Tianshun and Dajin are the layout of large bases along the eastern coast, while Tianneng and Taisheng are the national layout of small bases.
Offshore: the test is the acquisition capacity of wharf resources. The scarcity of wharf resources is mainly reflected in: the port construction is planned by the government, and the functions are divided. The annual growth of 10000 ton berths for production is only dozens (of which, the annual increment of more than 100000 tons is 20, while less than 10 are expected to be used for wind power). In general, the enterprise plans to complete the construction of the wharf for at least 1-2 years. At present, the enterprises with their own terminals include Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Haili wind power and Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment Co.Ltd(300129) . From the perspective of berth quantity and quality, Dajin has the most advantages.
With the large-scale expansion of leading enterprises, the pattern of tower industry is rapidly concentrating.
Previously, the tower link pattern was relatively scattered, mainly due to the periodicity of the wind power industry + the tower transportation radius, resulting in the low power of the head enterprises to expand production. From 21 years later, the growth attribute of wind power rises, and the production expansion trend of the four leading enterprises is clear. From the global market share, Cr4 is expected to increase from 20% in 20 years to 40% in 23 years.
Investment suggestion: recommendation [ Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) ], suggestion attention [ Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) ]
Look for the target of increasing single ton profit due to large production expansion flexibility + reasonable production capacity layout (looking at wharf resources at sea).
Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) : optimistic about the double increase of onshore and offshore capacity of tower business.
The company has a 20-year production capacity of 600000 tons, all on land. It is estimated that the onshore production capacity will expand to 700000 tons and 1000000 tons in 21-22 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 17% and + 41%.
It is expected that by the end of the year 22, the company's first phase of 600000 tons of offshore production capacity will be put into operation (a total of 1 million tons are planned), realizing a breakthrough from 0 to 1 at sea, and forming a production capacity layout of 1.2 million tons on land + 600000 tons on sea in 23 years. In 21-23 years, the proportion of Tianshun listed on the global land is expected to increase from 12% to 20%, and that on the sea is expected to increase from 0% to 12%. It is conservatively expected that the net profit per ton of offshore business will be 100-200 yuan higher than that of onshore business, and the profit margin will be improved.
Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) : relying on its own high-quality Wharf (Penglai), promote the layout of "two seas strategy".
Overseas: it is estimated that with the continuous opening of two 100000 ton berths in 22 years, the company has five berths above 10000 ton, and the export business will continue to expand.
Offshore: we expect the company's effective production capacity to reach 73 / 119 / 1.5 million tons respectively in 21 / 22 / 23, of which the offshore production capacity will reach 33, 71 and 1 million tons, and the offshore contribution will be the main increment. In 21-23 years, the share of Daikin in global overseas listing is expected to increase from 8% to 20%, and the share of onshore listing is basically stable at 7-8%.
Risk tip: the production capacity is lower than expected, the rise of steel price is higher than expected, and the installed capacity of wind power is lower than expected. The calculation is subjective
