Traditional household appliances: domestic and foreign sales fell slightly in the fourth quarter, and the operation was stable throughout the year. Since the fourth quarter, from the perspective of the same period in the same period of 19 years (total production caliber), air conditioners and range hoods have performed relatively well in the main electrical products, and the growth rate of refrigerators and washing machines is relatively stable. From the perspective of domestic and foreign sales, both domestic and foreign sales showed a slowing trend in the fourth quarter. We believe that the domestic sales performance of household electric power is mainly affected by negative factors such as the outbreak of the epidemic, the tightening of real estate policies in the early stage, terminal price increase and so on; The demand for export is affected by factors such as the normalization of foreign epidemic situations, and the demand tends to be stable. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the domestic demand of household appliances is expected to be further repaired driven by factors such as stabilizing terminal prices, favorable real estate policies and falling costs, and its elasticity may be better than that of export.
Emerging household appliances: the sales volume of integrated stoves has increased rapidly, and there is a large space for category development. Smoke stoves: the year-on-year growth rate of sales in the whole year was high in the front and low in the back. The traditional kitchen electricity market scene was flat in the fourth quarter of a single year. The growth rate of Q4 increased month on month compared with Q3, and the double leading position was further highlighted. Integrated stove: according to the data of ovicloud, the sales growth of 21q4 integrated stove continues to lead the kitchen electricity market, and the average price of the two-line market continues the growth trend, realizing the simultaneous rise of volume and price. Throughout the year, the sales volume of integrated stoves increased significantly year-on-year, and consumers' demand for multi-function integration of kitchen and electricity scenes is still high. At the same time, we note that the trend of upgrading the product structure of integrated stoves has begun to slow down, and the price increase of manufacturers in 2021 is unsustainable. The subsequent expansion of market scale will mainly rely on volume increase. Looking ahead, we expect that by 2035, the annual sales volume of integrated stoves is expected to reach nearly 9 million units, and the number of 100 households in retail / Engineering channels will reach about 40 / 5 units respectively, so there is a large space for category development.
Small household appliances: the demand for small kitchen appliances is still under pressure, and the growth rate of clean appliances slows down.
1) kitchen small electricity: the terminal demand is still weak, and the performance of the rigid demand category is relatively good. According to ovicloud data, 21q4 rice cookers, electric pressure cookers and other traditional small kitchen appliances continued the weak trend of terminals in the previous quarter. In terms of the cumulative growth rate of the whole year, except for the on-line electric pressure cookers with a year-on-year increase of + 2.7%, the double-line sales of other just needed small kitchen appliances decreased year-on-year. We believe that the growth rate of small kitchen appliances this year is weak. On the one hand, it is due to the high base brought by the epidemic last year, and on the other hand, it is also due to the overdraft in advance of the demand of some categories, which has been relatively weak in 21 years.
2) clean electrical appliances: in the fourth quarter, clean electrical appliances maintained a relatively rapid growth. The price increase brought by product technology upgrading is still the main driving force for the growth of the industry. The average price of clean electrical appliances in all months of the year increased year-on-year, but the sales volume showed signs of decline. We believe that after the function of sweeper products is relatively complete, 1) the importance of volume increase will rise, and the scale effect may gradually highlight after the product form is stable; 2) The upgrading of software and algorithms is more important than that of hardware, and the soft competitive barriers of head brands will be improved.
3) massage personal care: during the fourth quarter of the year, the transaction level of massage personal care small household appliances represented by Xiamen Comfort Science & Technology Group Co.Ltd(002614) , Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) and Rongtai fell slightly compared with the first three quarters, but the growth rate remained high. We believe that with the steady increase of per capita disposable income and the gradual high penetration of China's mandatory household appliances, the "free" space in residents' consumption will help accelerate the penetration of relatively optional consumer goods such as massage equipment, and residents' potential expenditure on them will increase.
Investment suggestion: looking forward to 2022, the home appliance industry is still facing the impact of weak Chinese demand, gradual slowdown of overseas demand with the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies and still high raw material costs. However, the marginal improvement shown in 21q4 may continue in the first half of 22. At the same time, the individual stocks with sufficient stock price correction and determined profit improvement at the current time point deserve special attention. We believe that under the influence of demand and cost, the structural opportunities of the industry focus more on: 1) there is sufficient room for category penetration; 2) There is room for upgrading the product structure; 3) Domestic sales are dominant, and companies with such conditions. We are optimistic about the industry fundamentals of integrated stoves and clean appliances. We recommend Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , and we recommend paying attention to Zhejiang Sanfer Electric Co.Ltd(605336) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) . In terms of traditional household appliances, the correction in 2021 has been relatively sufficient, and the valuation has basically returned to the central position under the influence of cost. Under the background of maintaining stable growth of income and predictable repair of profitability, white electric faucet Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , kitchen electric faucet Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) and civil electrical faucet Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) are recommended.
Risk tip: the real estate market, exchange rate and raw material price fluctuation risk, and the sales of new products are less than expected.
