4Q21 fund’s heavy food and beverage ratio continued to decline, the fund’s heavy food and beverage shares accounted for 7.62% of the total market capitalization of the fund’s investment in stocks, -0.8pct, of which Baijiu heavy liquor, other liquor and non alcoholic food stocks accounted for 6.60% of the total value of the fund’s investment in the stock market, 0.28% and 0.74%. From the perspective of the fund’s heavy storage, the 4Q21 food and beverage fund has been upgraded to a higher level than ever, and Baijiu is favored.
Baijiu heavy food and beverage ratio continued to decline, liquor, other liquor and non heavy positions have been reduced. According to the calculation, the market value of 4q21 fund’s heavy warehouse food and beverage stocks accounted for 7.66% of the total market value of the fund’s investment stocks, with a month on month ratio of -0.8pct and a year-on-year ratio of -2.4pct. Among them, the fund accounts for 6.60% of Baijiu liquor stock market, -0.4pct, -1.8pct. The market value of other alcohol stocks held by the fund accounted for 0.28%, with a month on month ratio of -0.1pct; The market value of the fund’s heavily held non alcohol food stocks accounted for 0.74%, with a month on month ratio of -0.3pct. If the full margin stocks were denominator, the proportion of the stock market value of the food and beverage heavy stocks was 15.4%, of which Baijiu, other liquor and non alcoholic food accounted for 13.3%, 0.6% and 1.5% respectively. From the perspective of the fund’s full warehouse position, it is estimated that the market value of 4q21 fund’s full warehouse food and beverage stocks accounts for 11.1%.
The number of heavy drinks and food increased, and Baijiu was popular. From the number of fund stores, the number of 4Q21 food and beverage fund increased 514, the number of Baijiu heavy warehouse increased by 394. (1) Month on month changes in the number of heavy position participants: Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (+ 260), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (+ 209), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (+ 191), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (+ 46), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (+ 41); The number of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) heavy warehouses decreased by more than 50. (2) Month on month change of heavy position market value: among the top 15 heavy position market values, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) heavy position market value increased by more than 30% month on month, and Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) heavy position market value decreased by more than 20% month on month.
Changes in the top 10 list: month on month 3q21, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) number of heavy positions and market value of heavy positions return to the top 10, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) exit the number of heavy positions and the top 10 of market value respectively. (1) Number of heavy position participants: Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (15th → 10th), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (6th → 11th); (2) Market value of heavy positions: Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (11th → 10th), Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (9th → 11th).
The latest ideas: 1, Baijiu, the growth of the performance of high certainty, the spread of the epidemic led to callbacks, but ushered in the layout of the time. (1) The recent correction was mainly due to the nationwide spread of the epidemic before the peak season of the Spring Festival. In addition, the weakening of the expectation of Maotai price increase, the concern of consumption tax rate adjustment and the expectation of overseas interest rate increase also affected the market sentiment. Baijiu Baijiu (2) looks forward to 2022. We think Baijiu is still the best sub sector with certainty. Due to the change of income structure, ratchet effect and concentration of liquor consumption, liquor consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor. Judging from the payment rhythm of major companies, the Spring Festival sales in 2022 is worth looking forward to. Focus on deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) , and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . 2. Food, the darkest hour has passed. In 2022, dairy industry, leisure, quick freezing and soft drinks will have the opportunity to choose the layout. (1) High end white milk and low-temperature white milk are favored by consumers due to their nutritional health. The change of consumption habits will promote these categories to maintain high growth. In the short term, there are many leading opportunities for dairy products, the competition pattern continues to improve, and the performance release power is strong. (2) Quick frozen food, pay attention to the growth opportunities of subdivided tracks, such as Guangzhou style quick frozen food. (3) Snack food, companies will continue to improve in 2022. (4) Focus on He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) .
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations, the price fluctuation of raw materials and food safety problems.
