In the fourth quarter, the proportion of bank stocks held by the fund continued to decline slightly month on month, accounting for less than 3%, ranking 23rd in the industry. 1. The proportion of bank stocks held by the fund was 2.93%, which continued to decline month on month since the high point in the first quarter of the year, but the decline narrowed to 0.36pct month on month, but the proportion of positions was still higher than that at the end of the 20th. From the absolute value level, the proportion of positions is 4.47% 1.5 percentage points lower than the median level since 2017, and nearly 1.7 percentage points lower than the average level of 4.60% since 2017. 2. In the fourth quarter, the increase of bank holdings ranked 23rd among 28 industries, higher than mining, leisure services, non-ferrous metals, chemical industry, medicine and biology. The sectors with more holdings are still electronics, electrical equipment and national defense industry, with an increase of 2.34%, 0.62% and 0.50% respectively. 3. Due to the decline of industry standard allocation ratio, although the proportion of fund positions has declined, the industry standard allocation difference continues to narrow. The low allocation difference of 4q fund positions in bank stocks is 5.67%, and the narrowing of low allocation difference continues to be the lowest level since 2012.
The style of bank stocks held in the fourth quarter: 1. Increase the holdings of urban and rural commercial banks in high-quality areas, and increase the holdings of large banks to a certain extent. The top five bank stocks with positions of active funds (including closed-end funds) are Ningbo, ICBC, Changshu, Chengdu and Agricultural Bank of China. 2. Since the end of last year, the credit risk of real estate enterprises has been exposed to a certain extent. The shareholding banks with concentrated positions in the early stage have reduced their holdings more. The positions of China Merchants Bank, Societe Generale and Ping An decreased by 0.21%, 0.12% and 0.12% month on month respectively, but the proportion of total positions is still high, with the proportion of total positions being 0.82%, 0.31% and 0.20% respectively. 3. Focus on tracking the position of individual stocks: the number of core stocks still shows a net increase. The five key stocks we tracked still showed a net increase in the number of holdings. In particular, four of the top five funds with China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) holdings had stable or increased positions (the position proportion calculated by market value decreased month on month due to the decline of share price).
Investment suggestion: at present, the safety margin of the sector is relatively high, and the asset quality constructs the safety margin of bank shares. 1. The core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. For details, see our relevant in-depth report “how do bank stocks perform when prices rise? – summary and comparison of multiple rounds of performance of bank stocks in China and the United States”. We expect that the asset quality of listed banks will be stable in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank shares. 2. Banks have two main lines of stock selection. One is our long-term proposal to continue to embrace the core assets of banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) . Their performance is highly sustainable and scarce. The boom of high-quality banks is certain and long-term. First, these scarce high-quality banks have a “market-oriented gene” and are “running to make money” in the industry of “lying to make money” (state-owned); Therefore, in the era of banking differentiation, their growth can be valued sustainably. Second, these banks occupy the sunrise track of the financial industry: wealth management and retail; Our in-depth report estimates that the growth rate of wealth management profits in the next decade will be 21% (see detailed calculation of income, profit and market value of “wealth management industry”: the golden track with a market value of 10 trillion). The other is to choose banks with undervalued value, safe asset quality and expected successful transformation, and be optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
Risk warning event: the economic downturn exceeded expectations. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
