Core view
Review of sales data: the passenger car production and sales data of December 2021 released by the passenger Federation: the retail sales volume of that month was 2.015 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.9% and a month on month increase of + 15.9%; The wholesale sales volume was 2.366 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.3% and a month on month increase of + 10.0%; The output was 2.466 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.2% and a month on month increase of + 10.6%. From January to December, the total retail sales reached 2014.6 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%.
Chip supply gradually improved, promoting the rise of production and sales in December. In December 2021, the retail sales volume of passenger cars reached 2.105 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.9% and a month on month increase of + 15.9%. Compared with the month on month increase of 10% in December in recent years, the performance was significantly improved, mainly due to the continuous improvement of chip supply, which promoted the rise of production and sales in December. From January to December, the total retail sales reached 2014.6 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and the growth rate decreased by 1.7 percentage points compared with that from January to November. Due to the improvement of the inventory level of models on sale at the dealer level and the continuous optimization of the structure, the manufacturer’s supply rhythm is in line with expectations. With the arrival of the peak sales season, in December, retailers significantly increased terminal concessions, rapidly improved their sales enthusiasm, and realized the strength of terminal retail. In terms of structure, (1) in December, the retail sales of luxury cars was 250000, a year-on-year increase of – 3%, an increase of 22% over the same period in 2019 and an increase of 18% month on month; (2) The retail sales of independent brands reached 930000 vehicles, up + 4% year-on-year, up + 25% year-on-year and + 12% month on month compared with the same period in 2019. The leading enterprises of independent brands performed very well and achieved significant growth in the new energy market. (3) The retail sales of joint venture brands were 930000, with a year-on-year increase of – 19%, compared with – 5% in the same period in 2019 and a month on month increase of + 19%, of which the Japanese share was 22.2%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.0pct, and the American share was 9%, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.6pct. The supply of German brands is gradually improving.
The sales growth of new energy vehicles remained strong, with a retail penetration rate of 22.6% in December. In December, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 475000, with a year-on-year increase of + 128.8% and a month on month increase of + 25.4%; The wholesale sales volume was 505000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 138.9% and a month on month increase of + 17.8%. From January to December, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.312 million, a year-on-year increase of 181.0%; Retail sales were 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. The retail penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in mid December was 22.6%, with a month on month ratio of + 1.8pct. The penetration rate from January to December was 14.8%, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In terms of models, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 423000, a year-on-year increase of + 137.9%; The wholesale sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 82000, a year-on-year increase of + 143.9%. In terms of structure, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 35.2%, that of luxury vehicles is 27.2%, and that of mainstream joint ventures is only 3.7%. In December, the sales volume of high-end electric vehicles increased strongly, and the middle and low-end trend was strong. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of A00 is 139000, accounting for 33% of pure electric vehicles; A0 grade wholesale sales volume is 60000, accounting for 14% of pure electric; Class A shares 25%, rising from the bottom; The share of class B is 27%, which remains stable.
Investment suggestions: the prosperity of independent brands continues to rise. We suggest to continue to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625. SZ), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633. SH / 2333. HK); The parts industry suggests paying attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741. SH), the scarce subject of lighting controller Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786. SH), and the supplier of intelligent driving active and passive safety Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) (600699. SH).
Risk tip 1. The risk of car sales not reaching the expectation; 2. Industrial chain risk caused by chip shortage.
