\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Events
On the evening of January 25, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 5.234 billion yuan - 5.542 billion yuan, an increase of 70% - 80% at the same time, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be 5.173 billion yuan - 5.477 billion yuan, an increase of 70% - 80% at the same time.
Key investment points
The rhythm slowed down in the fourth quarter, and the Spring Festival got off to a good start
According to the performance express, we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 360 million yuan - 660 million yuan, with an increase of - 42.5% to 7.3%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 300 million yuan - 600 million yuan, with an increase of - 48.8% to 3.4%. The median net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 510 million yuan, a decrease of 17.5%. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is close to the upper limit of the notice, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is flat or slightly increased. The high performance growth in 2021 is due to the following reasons: 1) the company continued to deepen the "1357 + 10" market layout, increased market expansion in the south of the Yangtze River, and promoted steady breakthroughs in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui, Guangdong and other markets; 2) Adhere to the product strategy of "grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing Bofen" and further optimize the product structure. We expect that the revenue of blue and white series accounts for more than 30% and that of Bofen series accounts for less than 30%; 3) There are more than 1 million controllable terminal outlets in the national market. Considering the Spring Festival peak shifting factor and the company's advance collection factor (the contract debt at the end of 2021q3 is 3.821 billion yuan), we think that the company has enough spare power to complete the goal of 2021. At present, it is actively preparing for a good start of the Spring Festival.
Continue to focus on blue and white series, and focus on East and South China markets outside the province
In 2022, the company will continue to focus on the blue and white series, hold high and fight high, and Bofen will continue to control the quantity; Focus on three indicators: the first is the sales index of Qinghua Fen Liquor, the second is the terminal index of Qinghua 20, and the third is the index of Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group.
In terms of expansion outside the province, build three markets and focus on the markets in East China and South China. The three major markets refer to the first is the large base Market (in addition to the original base camp, it is emphasized that a strong base market will be built in the north of the Yellow River, with the North China market as the core barrier), the second is the East China market, and the third is the South China market. Again emphasize the importance of East China market (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui and other markets) and South China market (mainly including Guangdong, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and two lakes regions), and ask for market share from these two markets.
Five highlights of the company in the future: in-depth nationalization
Looking forward to 2022, although the company's performance slows down month on month compared with 2021, the revenue is still expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 25%. After the national reform in 2017, the company is rejuvenated in the second spring, and the brand revival is imminent. It is just around the corner to become maowufen.
We think the company's five highlights in the future:
1) build a 2 + 2 brand, in which the first 2 refers to Fenjiu and Zhuyeqing, and the second 2 refers to Xinghua village brand and series brand. The core of Fenjiu and Zhuyeqing drives the development of the company, and Xinghua village brand and series brand are beneficial supplements.
2) a big health industry platform with Zhuyeqing as the core. Zhuyeqing is a core brand to be built by the company in the future and is expected to be large-scale in the future.
3) under the product strategy of "grasping both ends and strengthening the waist", the blue and white series continues to enhance the brand strength of the company. The blue and white 30 · revival version seeks to bring large quantities of single products at a price of 1000 yuan, and Bofen consolidates the large single products at a price of 40-60 yuan, so as to strengthen the competitiveness of products from laobaifen and Panama.
4) implement the "1357" nationwide layout for regional expansion, and gradually build the marketing organization structure of 31 provinces and regions + 10 directly under the management area. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of revenue inside and outside the province is expected to increase from the current 4:6 to 3:7 in the future.
5) with the gradual completion of the company's layout, the optimization of product structure and the deepening of national layout, the company's net interest rate under the scale effect is expected to increase from more than 20% at present to more than 30% in the future.
Profit forecast
At present, the company's brand potential continues to be released, focusing on building blue and white 30 revival version and entering the high-end wine camp. According to the performance forecast, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 4.51/5.95/7.71 yuan (the previous values were 4.65/6.28/8.40 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 60 / 45 / 35 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic dragged down consumption, the growth of Qinghua was less than expected, and the expansion outside the province was less than expected.
