Power investment energy (002128)
Q4 performance may be dragged down by impairment, and the green power layout ushers in an acceleration period. Maintain “buy” rating
According to the performance forecast released by the company, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.56 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 71.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 3.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.8%. The year-on-year increase in annual performance mainly benefited from the rise in the prices of coal and electrolytic aluminum; The average installed capacity of wind power increased, and the sales of wind power increased year-on-year; The preferential tax policies for the western development will reduce the income tax rate. In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is expected to be 685 million yuan, down 34.3% month on month. The single quarter performance is lower than expected, or mainly due to the provision of large asset impairment and the increase of production costs. According to the performance forecast, we lowered the profit forecast for 2021 and maintained the forecast for 2022-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 35.6 (previous value of 42.5) / 59.9/6.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.9% / 68.1% / 5.8%; EPS is 1.85 (the previous value is 2.21) / 3.11/3.30 yuan, corresponding to the current share price PE is 8.1 / 4.8 / 4.5 times. The future performance of the company’s main coal and aluminum industry is expected to be released steadily, the installation of new energy has entered the accelerated layout stage, and is optimistic about the transformation and growth potential. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Q4 single season coal price increases, electrolytic aluminum or cost pressure
Coal business: Q4 Changxie coal price may maintain growth. Q4 under the background of guaranteed supply, the company’s coal output may be released smoothly. In terms of price, the company’s long-term association price is mainly linked to the Bohai Rim thermal coal price index and Jinzhou Port Co.Ltd(600190) coal price index. According to wind data, the average prices of the two indexes Q4 are 782 and 641 yuan / ton respectively, up 12.3% and 44.6% month on month compared with Q3. According to the calculation of the company’s long-term association pricing mechanism, the long-term association price in Q4 may rise by 25% month on month.
Electrolytic aluminum business: Q4 aluminum price is high, and the cost may increase. In 2021, the annual aluminum price rose sharply year-on-year. The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. was 18898 yuan / ton, up 33% year-on-year. Although the aluminum price in 2021q4 fell, the average price in a single quarter was 20075 yuan / ton, and Q3 remained basically flat (Mom – 2.1%) and remained high. The company’s electrolytic aluminum pricing mechanism is flexible and fully benefits from the dividend of high aluminum price. In terms of cost, the cost of Q4 alumina may be under pressure, and the market price of Q4 alumina increased by 27.4% month on month; In terms of power cost, although the rise of high energy consumption electricity price raises the overall energy cost of the industry, the overall performance may be less affected due to the company’s own coal power.
The installed capacity of new energy accelerates and the green power transformation opens up room for growth
In 2021, the overall layout of the company’s wind and solar power projects accelerated, the installed capacity of new energy under construction and planning increased rapidly, and the layout area was no longer limited to the main position in Inner Mongolia, and began to set foot in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong and other provinces. Up to now, a total of about 1.55 million KW new energy units of the company have been connected to the grid (including 400000 kW electrolytic aluminum self provided units), and the installed capacity of approved projects under construction is 2.25 million KW, and the planned projects to be approved are 2.08 million KW, totaling 5.88 million KW. Considering the short construction period of green power installation, the grid connected capacity is expected to increase intensively in 2022. Backed by the state power investment group, a central enterprise leading in the installation of new energy, the company has unique resource advantages in many aspects, such as resource acquisition and approval of new energy projects, installation and construction and grid connection. Optimistic about the long-term growth potential of green power transformation.
Risk tip: economic growth slows down; Coal and aluminum prices fell more than expected; The utilization rate of new energy units is lower than expected
