\u3000\u3000 Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) (600566)
Report guide
Compared with 18 years ago, the core point supporting the company's performance growth has changed, and pediatric medicine is expected to achieve high growth. Relying on new advantageous categories and new varieties acquired by extension, we are optimistic about the company's performance to obtain sustainable driving force, covering the rating of "overweight" for the first time.
Key investment points
Core variable: changes in advantageous varieties have brought sustained impetus to the performance. Since the backdoor listing in 2013, the company has arranged the product lines of Chinese and Western medicine around the fields of respiration, digestion and pediatrics, and the three core drugs have contributed most of the performance of the company. However, in 2019 and 2020, the company's revenue of prodilan and rabeprazole drugs decreased significantly year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue also decreased significantly, which indicates that the core growth point of the company's revenue has changed. Prodilan has gradually transformed from the main contribution point of the company's performance to a stable basic market, and pediatric drugs and new products are expected to contribute greater increment and provide continuous performance driving force for the company
Stock products: in the period of product structure transformation, pediatric drugs have great development space
The company's three core products are Pudilan anti-inflammatory oral liquid, rabeprazole sodium enteric coated capsule and Xiaoer daiqiao Qingre Granule. Among them, the market share of Xiaoer douqiao Qingre Granule in pediatric cold Chinese patent medicine in urban public hospitals and retail pharmacies in China is 60.43% and 28.01% respectively; With the implementation of the three child policy, pediatric products will be further encouraged by the policy. The company will adjust the product structure of children's medication and be optimistic about the continuous and large amount of children's medication. The sales of Pudilan anti-inflammatory oral liquid is affected by the adjustment of local medical insurance catalogue. We judge that the company will increase the proportion of retail sales of drugs, which is expected to absorb the negative impact of medical insurance.
Strategic layout: multiple business lines keep pace, and growth hormone layout is in progress
(1) second line category: in addition to the three core products, the company also produces and develops Chinese and Western medicine varieties such as Jianweixiaoshi oral liquid, Huanglong Zhike granule and protein iron succinate oral solution, so as to help the company build a medium and long-term product echelon; (2) Daily chemical products: the business segment is gradually developing to the strategic level of the company. The products focus on oral care, expand from toothpaste products to oral services, and continuously expand the product matrix based on the classic prescription of Pudilan Xiaoyan oral liquid. (3) growth hormone: the company is working with the heaven habitat to carry out the development, production and commercialization of the long term biological long acting recombinant human growth hormone (TJ101) in Chinese mainland. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, the long-term growth hormone with low penetration rate, huge development space and better utility in China is the future trend of growth hormone product upgrading; Tj101, which the company cooperates with Tianjing biology, is currently in the late clinical stage. Considering the research and development progress, we expect to gradually increase the volume after 2024 and quickly expand the market with the help of the company's mature channels.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 7.631/85.77/9.251 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.8% / 12.4% / 7.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.665/18.85/2.151 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.3% / 13.2% / 14.1%, corresponding to the current PE of 13.82x/12.21x/10.70x respectively. We select the comparable company method to evaluate the company, give the company 20 times PE in 2022, the target price is 37.7 yuan, and give the "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk tips
The sales of the company's products are less than expected; The R & D and sales of growth hormone products are less than expected; Affected by the medical insurance negotiation, the price of core products fluctuated sharply.
