\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Event overview
The company announced the performance forecast for 2021: the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.040 ~ 1.076 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44% ~ 49%; The non net profit deducted was 908 ~ 940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41% ~ 46%.
Analysis and judgment:
The performance showed rapid growth, and the core business small molecule cdmo business continued to be realized
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 4.505 ~ 4.662 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 43% ~ 48%, of which Q4 achieved an operating revenue of RMB 1.675 ~ 1.730 billion in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 57% ~ 62%. In addition, the company achieved a deduction of non net profit of RMB 908 ~ 940 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 41% ~ 46%, of which Q4 was RMB 312 ~ 344 million in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 66% ~ 83%. The performance showed a trend of rapid growth. Our judgment is mainly driven by the following two factors: (1) the revenue recognized from the execution of newly signed large orders in November 2021 and the company’s conventional covid-19 orders continue to maintain rapid growth, which drives the company’s small molecule cdmo business to grow by more than 45% year-on-year, of which Q4 increased by more than 65% year-on-year in a single quarter; (2) The company’s chemical macromolecular, biological macromolecular cdmo, preparation, clinical cro and other businesses continue to promote. It is expected that its overall operating revenue will increase by more than 65% year-on-year in 2021.
Global leader in small molecule cdmo industry, accelerated capital expenditure and strategic emphasis on long tail customers drive the acceleration of corporate performance
The company has been deeply engaged in the field of small molecule cdmo for more than 20 years, and has established a world-class R & D platform with nearly 3000 scientists and engineers. At the same time, the company has upgraded and established four technology platforms since 2020, including process science center, continuous science and technology center, biosynthesis technology R & D center and intelligent manufacturing technology center, which are used for R & D and reserve of various technologies, The continuous improvement of cdmo + service capability supporting Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) enables the company’s pipeline under research. In the first half of 2021, the company’s small molecule cdmo business achieved an operating revenue of RMB 1.617 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, of which commercial business accounted for 51.3% and clinical business accounted for 48.7%. Looking forward to the next three years, considering the order increment brought by continuing to cultivate key customers and accelerating the development of long tail customers, as well as the supply side acceleration brought by the acceleration of superimposed capital expenditure, we generally judge that the company’s performance will realize the trend of accelerated growth.
New business development: diversify business layout and add imagination to the company
On the basis of deep cultivation of small molecule cdmo business, the company has rapidly developed chemical macromolecule business (oligonucleotide, polypeptide, liposome, etc.), preparation, bioengineering and other businesses, and steadily expanded clinical research services, biological macromolecule cdmo and other businesses. Among them, the preparation business and bioengineering fields continue to be small molecule, oligonucleotide, polypeptide Continue to empower and realize collaborative business cooperation in the field of biological macromolecules. In the first half of 2021, the company’s new business realized an operating revenue of 144 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 144.62%, including a year-on-year increase of 98.39% in the chemical macromolecule business and 82.72% in the preparation sector. Looking forward to the future, with the continuous layout of synthetic macromolecules, biological macromolecules, clinical cro, biosynthesis and other businesses, the company will realize one-stop service business with small molecule business, realize rapid growth of business and increase the imagination of future performance growth.
Performance forecast and investment suggestions
As China’s leading supplier of small molecule cdmo, the company looks forward to the future and continues to cultivate the integrated service capacity of small molecule “intermediate + API + Preparation”. In addition, the company continues to strengthen the layout in the field of synthetic macromolecules and biological macromolecules, so as to escort the medium and long-term performance growth of the company. Taking into account the fluctuation of revenue recognition of large orders and adjusting the early profit forecast, that is, the revenue in 21-23 years is adjusted from RMB 49.19/103.47/8.202 billion to RMB 46.20/85.38/10.084 billion, and the EPS is adjusted from RMB 4.44/9.09/7.83 to RMB 4.02/7.54/8.96, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 349 / share on January 25, 2022. The PE score is 86.73/46.30/38.94 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The core technology backbone and management risk of loss, the risk of increased competition, the loss of core technical personnel, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the expansion of New Coronavirus’s epidemic affecting China’s external business, and the implementation of COVID-19 orders are lower than expected.
