\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Event: the company issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021, and the performance met the market expectation. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.23-5.54 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 70% - 80%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.17-5.48 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 70% - 80%. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 360-660 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 42.5 - + 7.3%, and deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 300-600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 48.8% - + 3.4%.
Q4 controls goods and accumulates power. In the coming year, the steady development is in line with expectations. Fenjiu is the representative of Qingxiang Baijiu, and enjoys high market share in the province. The market share of Baijiu Fen and Fen Fen has strong product strength in the development of foreign markets, leading to brand revival. 2021Q4 earnings forecast is 510 million yuan, net profit -17.6%, which is mainly in the liquor sales season. Maintaining sound channels is an active choice for the company to focus on long-term development. On the other hand, near the Spring Festival, the company's early control of goods is expected to help the Spring Festival "get off to a good start". Throughout the year, the median net profit attributable to the parent company in the performance forecast was 5.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75%, in line with expectations, and the high-quality development of Qingxiang leader in the 14th five year plan can be expected.
Product iteration and marketing reform have both highlights. On the product side, the company adheres to the product strategy of "grasping Qinghua, strengthening waist and stabilizing Bofen". Qinghua 20 has increased in large quantities and become an important product with a price band of 400 yuan. The revival version of Qinghua 30 has basically replaced the old Qinghua 30 and further raised the brand height. In the future, waist products and Xinghua village brands are expected to undertake the brand strength of Qinghua Fen Wine and Bofen, Make further breakthroughs outside the province and realize the product matrix with full price and coverage; On the marketing side, according to the pre increase announcement of the company's performance, the company continued to optimize the marketing organization structure in 2021. The post-80s took over the management and the post-90s enriched the front line. There were more than 1 million controllable terminal outlets in the national market, an increase of about 18% compared with the more than 850000 terminals disclosed in the 2020 annual report. Fenjiu continued to improve its recognition in the terminal consumption scene by virtue of its flavor and independent display, New achievements have been made in the nationwide expansion.
The brand potential is upward and the nationalization continues to advance. We believe that the growth of Fen Liquor not only comes from the brand awareness of "Fen boss", but also from the high-end high-volume price band in the layout of Qinghua Fen Liquor at the product end and Bofen to meet the needs of consumers for excellent light bottle liquor. In the future, the growth space is broad and the brand potential is strong. The company continues to promote nationalization, the market strategy is clear and clear, and the future development momentum of Fen Liquor is upward.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: keep the previous profit forecast unchanged. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 5.49/75.1/9.65 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 78.2% / 36.9% and 28.4%. At present, the price earnings ratio of the stock price corresponding to 2021-2023 is 60x / 44x / 34x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the market expansion outside the province is less than expected, and the promotion of high-end products is less than expected
