\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Event: the company issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. The company expects to realize a net profit of 5.234 billion yuan to 5.542 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%; It is estimated that in 2021, the net profit deducted from non parent company will be RMB 5.173 billion-5.477 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%.
Comments:
The company's profit growth in 2021 is in line with expectations. The company expects that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 70% - 80% year-on-year in 2021, and the net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 70% - 80% year-on-year. The profit will achieve rapid growth, which is in line with expectations. In a single quarter, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 355-663 million yuan in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of - 42.56% to 7.28%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 298 million yuan to 602 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 48.80% to 3.44%. In the second half of 2020, the impact of the epidemic on Baijiu gradually weakened and consumer demand recovered. The company's 2020q4 profit growth exceeded expectations due to the smooth price increase of Qinghua and Bofen series products, obvious market expansion effect and the impact of taxes and other factors. Considering that the company actively controlled the delivery rhythm in the fourth quarter of 2021 and based on the high base in the fourth quarter of 2020, the profit growth of the company in 2021q4 slowed down year-on-year.
The release of brand potential energy was accelerated and the process of nationalization was steadily promoted. In the process of development, the company adheres to the product strategy of "grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen", and the brand potential energy is accelerated. With the optimization and upgrading of product structure, the company's blue and white series products have achieved rapid growth, and the volume increase after the favorable price of Bofen has been steadily promoted. At present, the company is committed to national layout and deepening the market strategy of "1357 + 10". While giving full play to the advantageous regional market around Shanxi, the company has strengthened the expansion of the market in the south of the Yangtze River, promoted steady breakthroughs in the markets of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and Guangdong, and radiated to the national market from point to area.
Increase the channel layout and further optimize the marketing structure. Since 2021, the company has further optimized the marketing organization structure, realized the alternation of new and old marketing backbone, and injected new development power into the development of marketing team. At the same time, the company actively strengthens the channel layout, improves the channel penetration and expands the market influence of the brand. By the end of 2021, the company had more than 1 million controllable terminal outlets in the national market.
The feedback of the company's dealer conference was positive. The company recently successfully held a dealer conference, in which the chairman pointed out that the next three years will be a major strategic development period of Fenjiu, and 2022 is very important. At the same time, the company put forward "Four Focuses" and "four insistences" for high-quality development in the future, and pointed out that it will continue to take the blue and white series as an important starting point for the development of the company, further give play to the potential energy of strong brands and improve market recognition. In addition, the company pointed out that the overall reform policy of "133238" will be implemented in the next stage to further strengthen the reform of marketing organization around the three markets.
Maintain recommended ratings. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 4.48 yuan and 6.06 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 60 times and 44 times respectively. At present, the company's channel inventory is at a relatively low level, and the dealers have high enthusiasm for payment and strong certainty of a good start. As a leading liquor of Qingxiang Baijiu, the company will continue the keynote of "Fen speed", increase brand influence and continuously optimize the product and channel structure. Under the catalysis of multi-party reform, the company's performance is expected to have greater elastic growth space in the future. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning. Product promotion is less than expected, market expansion is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, macroeconomic problems and food safety problems.
