\u3000\u3000 Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) (300662)
Event:
Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) release performance forecast: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 233-253 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.95% – 35.95%; Deducting the net profit of 192-212 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.28% – 42.00%.
Key investment points:
Flexible employment continues to enjoy a high boom, and the performance is expected to increase sharply in 2021. The annual profit of the company meets the expectation, and the real net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to approach the upper limit of the range of 253 million yuan; The annual revenue is expected to maintain a good growth. In the first three quarters, the revenue is expected to be 5.18 billion yuan, an increase of 89.21% year-on-year. We expect the annual revenue to be more than 7 billion yuan. The high performance growth comes from: 1) the volume of the main industry’s flexible work business is still small, which is far from meeting the demand of stock posts, and the flexible work business is in short supply; The company’s flexible work business increased by 80.6% year-on-year in 2021h1, and is expected to continue the high growth trend throughout the year. 2) In 2021h1, the medium and high-end talent search and recruitment process outsourcing business increased by 33.6% and 28.9% year-on-year respectively under the low base effect in 2020. It is expected to achieve rapid restorative growth in 2021.
Overweight technology investment is the core factor affecting Q4 performance, and the long-term high growth trend remains unchanged. The company further increased its investment in technology. On the one hand, it strengthened the group’s information construction, focused on the infrastructure construction of technology middle stage and digital middle stage, and improved the human efficiency of offline diversified service products through digital management; On the other hand, we will continue to upgrade and optimize the construction and market promotion of a variety of new technology service products such as “vertical recruitment platform”, “human resources industry interconnection platform”, “regional talent brain platform”, “Kerui talent to the cloud”. The company continues to polish the unique ecological model of “technology + service + platform”, and is optimistic about the sustained and high growth of the main business of technology empowerment in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating. We are optimistic about the high growth potential of the company’s flexible employment. The short-term performance fluctuations brought by technology investment will not affect our core judgment on the company’s competitiveness and the sustained high growth of flexible work business. The business growth momentum in 2022 is expected. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 will be 7.272 billion yuan / 10.841 billion yuan / 15.684 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 84.9% / 49.1% / 44.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 245 million yuan / 322 million yuan / 416 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.5% / 31.4% / 29.4%. The corresponding dynamic PE: 46 / 35 / 27x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: manage boundary and bottleneck risks; Cash flow risk caused by advance: business fluctuation risk of key customers; Brain drain risk of headhunting consultants; The risk of recurrent outbreaks.
