\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Events
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) recently announced that it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.66-2.76 billion in 2021, yoy + 138% – 147%.
Key investment points
The performance was eye-catching, and the profit of Danping increased steadily
In 2021q4, the company achieved a net return to parent of RMB 930-1 billion / yoy + 92% – 113%, QoQ + 28% – 42%, deduction of non return to parent net profit of RMB 930-1.03 billion / yoy + 115% – 139%, QoQ + 44% – 60%, and eye-catching performance. We expect that the company’s 2021q4 diaphragm shipments will exceed 1 billion square meters, and the single average profit will exceed 0.9 yuan, with a steady increase on a month on month basis. We expect the company’s diaphragm shipments to exceed 3 billion square meters in 2021, more than doubling the growth. At the same time, we expect that the coating proportion of diaphragm will be about 30% in 2021, and the coating proportion is expected to increase to 40% in 2022.
Overall, we believe that the company’s product unit profit is expected to rise steadily. First of all, the company has a large space for product structure optimization, and the coating is expected to continue to improve; Secondly, the company’s online integrated coating layout is leading in the industry, there is still room for improvement in speed and yield, and the cost side is expected to continue to decline; In addition, the proportion of overseas exports of the company’s products is expected to further improve and strengthen its profitability accordingly; Moreover, the supply and demand of the diaphragm industry is tight, and the price is expected to rise steadily.
Strategically targeting global high-quality customers
The diaphragm industry has the characteristics of high technical barriers, high capital threshold and long production expansion cycle. Driven by the rapid growth of demand in downstream fields such as power batteries and energy storage, the industry is expected to continue to be tight in supply and demand due to the slow expansion of overseas diaphragm suppliers. As the absolute leader of the diaphragm industry, the company has the advantages of integrated layout and leading technology, and its cost competitiveness is prominent.
Actively targeting global high-quality customers, the market share is expected to continue to increase. The company has successively signed purchase agreements with a number of global leading enterprises. In January 2022, the company has successively signed 1.65 billion Ping orders from 2022 to 2024 with large American automobile enterprises (no more than 900 million Ping / year in 2025), and signed 2.5 billion yuan guarantee agreement in 2022 with AVIC innovation (paying 100 million yuan in advance); In December 2021, the company signed a guarantee supply order of RMB 5.178 billion in 2022 with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (paying an advance payment of RMB 850 million); In June 2021, it signed a contract with LGC and GM joint venture ultiumcells to purchase more than US $258 million diaphragms from Enjie from June 2021 to 2024; In May 2019, it signed a contract with LGC to purchase wet diaphragm of no more than US $617 million from Enjie from May 2019 to April 2024. On the whole, the company has achieved strategic cooperation with global leading enterprises such as LGC, catl and Tesla, with high certainty on the demand side.
The company’s forward-looking overweight capacity layout. By the end of 2021, the production capacity of master coil will reach 5 billion square meters, and 25 production lines are expected to be added in 2022, corresponding to 7.5 billion square meters by the end of 2022 and more than 10 billion square meters by the end of 2023. In terms of online coating, the company has 11 lines by the end of 2021 and is expected to reach 34 lines in 2022. In addition, the company continues to expand its capacity boundary and actively layout aluminum-plastic film and dry process diaphragm, in order to enhance the company’s core competitiveness.
Deep cultivation of high-quality track, with excellent growth
The company deeply cultivates the diaphragm high-quality track, and has strong demand and broad prospects in the fields of power battery, energy storage and electric tools in the future. According to xinlune lithium battery, in 2021, China’s diaphragm output was about 7.9 billion square meters (wet process was about 6.1 billion square meters, yoy + 132%, dry process was 1.8 billion square meters, yoy + 68%), yoy + 113%, and the global market share of China’s diaphragm exceeded 70%. Enjie has a market share of 39% in China, more than 27% in the world and more than 50% in China’s wet process industry.
We believe that as a high-quality diaphragm supplier in China, the company has leading costs and prominent product competitiveness, and is expected to continue to replace overseas shares. The company is expected to rely on strong technology and cost advantages to deeply bind the world’s leading enterprises, and the market share is expected to continue to expand. The track where the company is located has good growth, excellent competition pattern, continuous optimization of governance and binding of excellent talents through equity incentives. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond the industry through leading cost and technology advantages, α Good attributes.
Profit forecast
Based on the principle of prudence, the impact of additional issuance on performance and share capital will not be considered for the time being. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 2.7/5/6.9 billion yuan, EPS will be 3.05/5.57/7.76 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 86 / 47 / 34 times respectively. Based on the company’s high-quality track, excellent customers, global capacity expansion and industrial layout in line with the future development trend, we are optimistic about the company’s medium and long-term upward development opportunities and give a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Downstream demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; Risk of deterioration of competition pattern; Capacity expansion and digestion are not as expected; The progress of additional issuance was less than expected.
