\u3000\u3000 3Peak Incorporated(688536) (688536)
On January 25, 3Peak Incorporated(688536) released the performance forecast. The company expects to achieve a revenue of 1.321-1.331 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 133.18% – 134.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 426-456 million, with a year-on-year increase of 131.92% – 148.25%; Deduct non net profit of 346-376 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 106.65% – 124.57%. After the share based payment fee is added back, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 569-599 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 172.15% – 186.49%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 489-519 million, with a year-on-year increase of 153.63% – 169.19%.
Revenue hit a record high, and equity incentive fees affected profits. 21q4 is expected to have a revenue of 430-440 million yuan, with a median year-on-year increase of 290.17% and a month on month increase of 7.06%. The revenue reached a record high; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 115-145 million, with a year-on-year increase of 517.44% and a month on month decrease of 17.47% based on the median value (the same below); Deducting non net profit of 88-118 million yuan, the median increased by 1319.29% year-on-year and decreased by 26.07% month on month. The month on month decline is mainly due to the impact of equity incentive fees and the slight increase of bonus fees at the end of the year, while the gross profit margin of the company remains stable. If the equity incentive calculation is added back in each quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 is RMB 169-199 million, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q3 is RMB 187 million, and the median value decreases slightly by 1.43% month on month; The non net profit deducted from Q4 was 143-173 million, corresponding to the non net profit deducted from Q3 was 170 million, and the median value decreased slightly by 6.86% month on month.
Attach great importance to R & D and help long-term growth. We expect the company to have more than 400 employees by the end of the year, with nearly 200 new employees in the whole year. Among them, R & D personnel account for about 70%. In order to attract and retain talents, the company has issued three rounds of equity incentive schemes since its listing, reaching almost full staff coverage. The R & D expenses in the 21st year are expected to reach 299 million yuan, of which the share based payment included in the R & D expenses is expected to be 105 million yuan. Although the apparent profit is affected by high equity incentive fees in the short term, it is more conducive to the growth of product R & D in the long term.
The category continues to expand and the pan industrial field continues to make breakthroughs. The company’s R & D achievements are very remarkable. The annual product models are expected to reach 1600-1800, with more than 400 new models. In addition to the solid signal chain IC, DCDC, LDO, motor drive and other power management IC are gradually introduced, and digital isolation, MCU, AFE and so on are developed. The platform layout is more and more perfect. If Q3 power management IC accounts for 26.17% of revenue, we expect Q4 to further increase its share. Moreover, the company is greatly weakened by the downstream impact of single communication. In the first three quarters, the revenue of industry, automotive electronics, medical treatment and consumer has reached more than 40%. At present, the company’s automotive high-voltage precision amplifier has been shipped in batches, leading in China. It is expected that with the enrichment of isolation products, it is expected to make continuous breakthroughs in the fields of high performance and high reliability requirements such as industry and automobile.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 / 22 / 23 to be RMB 438 / 467 / 864 million respectively, and the corresponding current price (closing price on 2022.1.25) PE to be 126 / 118 / 64 times respectively. We are optimistic about the company’s ability to expand product lines such as power management, isolation, MCU and AFE, highlighting the platform layout, and the company’s continuous development in the downstream, which is greatly weakened by the downstream impact of single communication. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: product R & D risk; Risk of declining prosperity of the industry; Market competition risk.
