\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Event overview
On January 25, 2022, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) released the performance forecast for 2021: the company expects to achieve an annual operating revenue of 4.505 billion yuan – 4.662 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43% – 48%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year will be 1.040 billion yuan – 1.076 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44% – 49%; It is expected that the net profit of non parent company deduction in the whole year will be 908-940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41% – 46%.
The performance exceeded expectations, and the acceleration trend is sustainable
It is estimated that in 2021, the operating revenue will reach 4.505 billion yuan – 4.662 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43% – 48%, excluding the impact of exchange rate, a year-on-year increase of 52% – 57%.
In terms of quarters, Q4 is expected to achieve revenue of 1.675 billion yuan – 1.73 billion yuan, a new high in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 57% – 62% (excluding the impact of exchange rate, a year-on-year increase of 62% – 67%) and a month-on-month increase of 44% – 49%. The revenue side showed an increasing trend quarter by quarter, thanks to: 1. Strong growth of small molecule business: the company maintained the global leading position of small molecule cdmo and strong growth of orders. With the continuous delivery of new production capacity in the second half of the year, the revenue increased rapidly. It is estimated that the company’s small molecule business revenue increased by more than 45% year-on-year, including a year-on-year increase of more than 65% in the fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of exchange rate, the growth ratio was more than 50% and 70% respectively. 2. Emerging businesses entered the fast lane: the annual revenue of emerging businesses increased by more than 65% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate, the annual growth was more than 70%.
The profit side showed super excellent performance, and the net profit margin maintained a high level
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year will be 1.040 billion yuan – 1.076 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44% – 49%; It is estimated that the net profit of non parent company deduction in the whole year is 908-940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41% – 46%.
Quarter by quarter, Q4 is expected to realize a net profit of 345 million yuan to 381 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60% – 76% and a month-on-month increase of 30% – 43%. The net profit margin in 2021 is expected to be about 23%, and the company’s net profit margin ranks first in China’s cdmo. In the future, with the further improvement of the operating efficiency of the emerging business sector, it is expected to drive the better performance of the profit side.
Order capacity is highly matched, and small molecules and emerging businesses drive high growth
In terms of orders, the company successively disclosed two large overseas orders, with a total amount of about 5.8 billion yuan, most of which will be delivered in 2022. In terms of capacity, it is expected to add 1500m3 of capacity in 2022, with the largest total capacity of 5870m3 in China’s small molecule cdmo. The pace of capacity landing fully matches the order delivery cycle, effectively supporting the accelerated growth of small molecule business in 2022. At the same time, the company is also rapidly promoting the development of chemical macromolecules, biological macromolecules, cdmo, preparations, clinical cro and other emerging business sectors.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.061 billion, 1.947 billion and 2.107 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47%, 84% and 8%, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of performance falling short of expectations, new business investment risk and fixed asset investment risk.
