\u3000\u3000 Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) (688561)
The revenue growth rate is ahead of the industry. The network security leader has strong R & D investment, active defense ability and ecological channel construction, and has built a high competitive barrier, with significant long-term advantages. High growth above the high base. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.670 billion yuan to 5.820 billion yuan, an increase of 36.26% to 39.86% compared with the same period of the previous year. In Q4, the median value of the forecast is about 3.071 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 34.03% year-on-year. The revenue scale and growth rate are relatively comparable, and the company is in a leading position; The company continued to increase investment in R & D and sales, and the market share and competitiveness of a variety of core products continued to lead the industry. At the same time, the accrued employee share based payment expenses increased by 256 million yuan compared with 2020. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 600 million yuan to – 500 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss increase of 49.54% to 79.44% compared with 2020.
Wangan leader fully benefited from the growth opportunities of the industry, and the growth rate of traction revenue of new track products continued to be higher than that of the industry. 1) Driven by compliance policies, large-scale application of ICT technology and security events, the demand of network security industry is expected to accelerate. In the medium and long term, the proportion of network security investment in China’s it expenditure is expected to increase. According to IDC data, China’s network security investment accounts for 1.84% of IT investment, and there is still room for improvement compared with the global average of 3.74%. The scale of China’s network security market will reach US $17.9 billion in 2024, and the CAGR will be 18.7% from 2020 to 2024;
2) the company takes the lead in the layout of new tracks such as pan terminal security, situation awareness, cloud security and industrial control security. The revenue of the company’s 21h1 safety products in the new track accounts for more than 70% of the revenue of main products, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 60%. Among them, the revenue of terminal security, border security and data security exceeded 270 million yuan, 200 million yuan and 280 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 70%, 80% and 100% respectively. The revenue of new track products increased rapidly, and the traction revenue continued to surpass the industry;
3) high R & D creates strong product power. For example, the new generation situation awareness platform based on Dayu platform realizes the decoupling and personalized combination of capability base, business operation and decision support, which not only avoids repetitive R & D, but also concentrates resources on key problems, thus further maintaining the company’s leading position in the field of situation awareness.
By virtue of the product card position, channel and R & D competitiveness, the company has quickly seized the market, and the high-speed growth of the head government and enterprise customer base has verified the competitiveness of the company’s network security products and services. According to the data disclosed in the third quarterly report of 2021, the proportion of corporate customers of the company continued to increase, with an average growth rate of more than 60%. Corporate customers contributed more than 56% of the company’s main business revenue. In the first three quarters, operators grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 192%, the energy industry increased by 122%, the medical and health industry increased by 90% and the financial industry increased by 73%, The government and the public security, procuratorial and judicial department increased by 42% year-on-year.
We will continue to implement the “high-quality development strategy” and improve the growth rate of core products, gross profit margin and other indicators. 1) The company’s “high-quality development” strategy has achieved remarkable results. The gross profit margin in the first three quarters increased by 4.77% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin in Q3 alone increased by 7.41%. In the first three quarters of 2021, the sales expense rate and management expense rate decreased by 3.66% and 2.02% year-on-year. The company insisted on strong R & D investment and maintained the level of about 46%; 2) The card position is high and the track is prosperous, and there is no worry about the sustainability of growth. The company is not only in the forefront of the market in traditional security fields such as terminal security and UTM, but also in the market leading position in emerging fields such as cloud security and situational awareness. According to the reports of CCID Consulting, IDC and other third-party institutions, the company has the first market share in the field of terminal security in the new generation IT infrastructure protection product system, security management platform, cloud security and security services in the big data intelligent security detection and control product system. High R & D investment is expected to turn into strong technical barriers and achieve a leading position in the new track.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.854 billion, 7.674 billion and 9.976 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be – 106 million, 396 million and 1.268 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: competition intensifies risk; The policy strength is less than the expected risk; Slow layout of new areas and risks
