\u3000\u3000 Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) (000498)
The annual performance greatly exceeded expectations, continued to be optimistic about medium and long-term growth, and maintained the "buy" rating
The company issued a 21 year performance express. In the whole year, the company achieved revenue of 57.2 billion yuan, yoy + 66%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.12 billion yuan, yoy + 58%, net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.06 billion yuan, yoy + 84%. The performance greatly exceeded the market expectation and was also significantly higher than the business target set at the beginning of the year. Among them, the total revenue of the company in a single quarter was 6.5/157/168/18.1 billion, year-on-year + 52% / + 112% / + 86% / + 28%, The net profit attributable to the parent company was 160 / 6.2 / 5.2 / 820 million, a year-on-year increase of + 29% / + 84% / + 131% / + 16%. We judge that the main reasons for the high growth are: 1) there are sufficient orders on hand (21q1-3 newly signed orders are 65.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 53%), the increase of high-quality projects and the expansion of municipal, environmental protection and other multi category businesses; 2) In the past 21 years, there have been more mergers and acquisitions (steel structure, design and other whole industry chain layout). We think the company α And β Resonance, the performance in the next two years is still expected to maintain a high growth. It is expected that the performance in 21-23 years will be RMB 2.12/26.0/33.0 (the previous value is 2.01/25.5/3.24) billion, which corresponds to only 4.3/3.4 times of PE in 22-23 years, maintaining the "buy" rating.
In the 21st year, the planned investment in transportation infrastructure in the province exceeded 30%, and the prosperity of subdivided fields is optimistic in the 14th Five Year Plan period
In the short term, since 2016, the actual investment in transportation in Shandong Province has generally exceeded the annual investment target planned for that year (the investment in transportation infrastructure in Shandong Province has exceeded 8.80% / 25.80% / 69.49% / 7.89% / 27.9% respectively in 16-20 years). The planned investment in 21 years has increased by 30.56% year-on-year compared with the planned investment in 20 years, ranking the fifth in China, We believe that the transportation infrastructure investment in Shandong Province is expected to continue to achieve steady growth on a high base in 2021, and the subdivided infrastructure fields such as expressway, railway and rail transit are expected to achieve rapid growth. In the medium and long term, according to the medium and long term development plan of Shandong Province's comprehensive transportation network (2018-2035), by 2025, the traffic / operation mileage of expressway, railway and rail transit in Shandong Province will increase by 727 / 2639 / 172 kilometers respectively compared with that in 2020. There is still broad space for investment in transportation infrastructure in subdivided areas in the province in the 14th Five Year Plan period.
The merger and reorganization of major shareholders has further increased the market share in the province, and the maintenance business continues the industrial chain
The major shareholder Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) group is the largest employer of Expressway and bridge construction in Shandong Province. At present, more than 45% of the company's income comes from the road and bridge construction business of Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) group. In 20 years, the company won the bid for Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) group's investment projects with a total amount of 35.193 billion yuan (10 billion yuan in 18-19 years). The order volume increased significantly, With the merger of Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) group and the second shareholder Qilu transportation, the road and Bridge assets in the province are further concentrated, the market share of the company in the province is expected to be further improved, and the regional leading position is constantly consolidated. In addition, the company has built and distributed green maintenance bases throughout the country, actively cultivated new maintenance technologies, new processes, new materials and new equipment, and accelerated the expansion to high value-added fields upstream of the maintenance industrial chain.
The performance is expected to continue high growth and maintain the "buy" rating
We are optimistic about the prosperity of regional infrastructure and the company's competitive advantage. We expect the performance of 21.2 / 26.0 / 33.0 (the previous value of 2.01 / 25.5 / 3.24) billion yuan in 21-23 years. Referring to other comparable companies in the field of infrastructure, wind expects pe6.0 billion yuan in 22 years 66x, considering that the potential growth rate of the company is expected to be significantly better than the industry level, and the expansion of business layout and cost control are expected to continue to be transformed into the improvement of market share and profitability, the company is given 7 times PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 11.68 yuan (the previous value of 9.03), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The project payment collection is less than expected; The project landing rate is lower than expected; The performance express is the preliminary accounting data. Please refer to the annual report.
