\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Events
On January 25, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) released a performance forecast. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.51-4.62 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 43% – 48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.04-1.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44% – 49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 910-940 million, with a year-on-year increase of 41% – 46%, and the performance slightly exceeded expectations.
Brief comment
Q4 achieved high growth in revenue and profit in a single quarter. In a single quarter, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 1.675-1.73 billion in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 57-62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 345-385 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60% – 78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 314-344 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 67% – 83%. The overall operation of the company showed a good trend of high growth.
Strong performance growth and coordinated development of multiple businesses. The company’s performance achieved strong growth in 2021. The main driving factors are: 1) the revenue of small molecule business achieved strong growth, which is expected to increase by 45% year-on-year and 50% year-on-year after excluding the influence of exchange rate. The main driving forces are the continuous growth of small molecule business orders and the continuous implementation of production capacity in the second half of 2021; 2) With the rapid development of new business areas, chemical and biological macromolecular cdmo, preparations, clinical cro and other sectors are growing rapidly. It is expected that the year-on-year growth will be 65% in 2021, and the year-on-year growth will exceed 70% after excluding the impact of exchange rate. Multiple business sectors will gradually form a one-stop synergy.
Capacity release is superimposed with newly signed large orders, and the performance will be accelerated in 2022. The production capacity will be released gradually in 2021, and it is estimated that about 55% of the new production capacity will be released in the whole year (based on the volume of the reactor). In addition, the signing of the last two major contracts will further accelerate the process of accelerating the company’s performance.
Investment advice
With strong growth of small molecule business, gradual release of production capacity and one-stop coordinated development of multi business sectors, we expect EPS to be 4.03/7.60/8.76 yuan from 2021 to 2023, up 8.12% / 13.23% / 8.21% respectively, corresponding to 87 / 46 / 40 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy rating”.
Risk tips
The contract performance is less than expected, the sales of downstream new drug products are less than expected, the price rise of upstream raw materials, exchange rate fluctuations, environmental protection and safety production, the expansion of new business is less than expected, and the loss of core technology (business) personnel.
