\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (300122)
Company performance: the company issued a performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 9.9 billion yuan to 10.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200% to 220%, and the net profit after deduction of non-profit will be 9.97 billion yuan to 10.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200% to 220%. Based on this calculation, the company’s Q4 net profit in a single quarter was 1.5 billion to 2.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 82.4% to 162.6%, and the net profit after deduction was 1.55 billion yuan to 2.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 85% to 164%.
HPV vaccine sales resumed in the second half of the year, and covid-19 vaccine opened up overseas markets: affected by batch issuance and arrival, the sales growth of HPV vaccine 21h1 represented by the company slowed down, but since 21q3, the batch issuance of products has been restored, and the batch issuance of 4-price and 9-price HPV vaccines in the whole year is expected to be 16 million (a year-on-year increase of about 30%). According to the procurement plan between the company and MSD, It is expected that the follow-up HPV agent sales will still maintain rapid growth. With the impact of price adjustment and the increase of vaccination rate, the contribution of covid-19 vaccine is expected to decrease. At present, covid-19 vaccine has been approved for use in Indonesia, Colombia and other places. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to the export market expansion and who certification of the company’s products.
The product pipeline is rich, and some independent products will gradually enter the harvest period: after the micro card products independently developed by the company are approved in June 2021, the company actively promotes the bidding work, and it is expected that the quantity can be increased in 2022. In addition, the human diploid rabies vaccine has obtained the clinical summary report and is expected to be reported for production within this year, the tetravalent influenza vaccine is also expected to be reported for production within this year, and the 15 valent pneumonia vaccine is also in phase III of clinical practice. Both of them have great demand potential and are expected to grow into large varieties after listing.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: excluding the contribution of covid-19 vaccine, we expect the company to record net profits of 10.24 billion yuan, 6.15 billion yuan and 7.68 billion yuan in 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively, yoy + 210.0%, – 39.9%, + 24.9%, EPS of 9.2 yuan, 14.6 yuan and 14.6 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of 17x, 28x and 22x respectively. The company has sufficient growth momentum in the future and the current valuation is reasonable. We maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the listing progress of new products is less than expected; Covid-19 vaccine sales were lower than expected; Agent vaccine sales were lower than expected
