The science and technology industry is a typical growth industry. Most of the hype comes from optimistic expectations for the future and rising emotions in the current period. However, after all, the development of science and technology is difficult to predict. Often, the development or progress of a technology can change the pattern of an industry, which is also the reason why the science and technology industry is easy to rise and fall, and the reputation of fund managers such as Cai Songsong and Zheng Weishan rises and falls.
high scale growth and unstable performance
In the past, investors frequently mentioned the “four scum men” in the fund industry, including Galaxy innovative growth, noan growth, Haifutong shares and a certain communication ETF. Among them, three actively managed funds were criticized mainly because these funds accumulated a large increase in 2019 due to the themes of heavy position semiconductor or heavy position “online office”. Investors chasing up the purchase pushed up the scale of the fund and stood on the hill. The annual return of Haifutong stock in 2020 was only 24.56%, significantly lower than the same level, and the maximum pullback reached 31.57%; The fund fluctuations of Galaxy innovation growth and noan growth are equally fierce. The single year pullbacks of Galaxy innovation growth in 2020 and 2021 are 32.45% and 25.64% respectively.
The sharp fluctuation of fund net value is not only related to the heavy position of technology stocks in these products, but also related to the operation style of fund managers. Taking noan growth as an example, the fund is a more pure chip theme fund than chip ETF to some extent. According to the quarterly report, the proportion of the top ten heavy positions of noan growth has reached 82.32%, and the concentration of the top ten heavy positions of Cathay Pacific semiconductor chip ETF is only 54.32%. 5g, automotive electronics, new energy and other new technologies have rapidly increased the demand for chips, and the epidemic and other factors have also had an impact on the supply chain. In 2021, the chip industry showed a prosperity that has not been seen for many years, with the same profit and loss. When the chip sector rises, noan growth can obtain higher returns through its high positions in Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) and other chip leading stocks, However, when the sector goes down, or the market doubts the business cycle of semiconductors, the chip design manufacturers downstream of the fund’s core positions are undoubtedly the most impacted in the chip industry chain.
The idea of noan’s growth as a leader also seems to represent a good trend in the development prospect of China’s semiconductor industry. However, from the perspective of investment, noan’s growth is more in line with the positioning of semiconductor “enhancement”.
market sentiment in emerging industries is more difficult to grasp
Since December 2021, the shares of noan, Galaxy and Haifutong have all fallen by more than 10%. Combined with the quarterly report, it is not difficult to sort out the position adjustment and stock exchange ideas of science and technology talents behind the fund. Galaxy’s innovative growth is dominated by semiconductors, but its focus may be more on terminal applications. Under the general trend of automobile electrification and intelligence, automobile semiconductors ushered in great development opportunities. In the third quarter, the fund entered Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) and other stocks involving vehicle chips, almost maintaining the position proportion of vehicle power semiconductor company Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , And reduced the positions of Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) and other memory chip companies.
At the same time, independent control is still the configuration logic of many heavy positions of semiconductor products. The equipment and materials upstream of semiconductor are the basis for the development of semiconductor industry. Companies in the subdivided field of semiconductor equipment and materials in China may seize the opportunity of domestic substitution to achieve rapid rise. There are Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) and other companies in their positions, Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) and Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) respectively targeted the two relatively subdivided fields of glue development and ion implantation. However, the recent market performance has been differentiated, and the stocks biased towards the subdivided track have fallen more.
Haifutong stock has maintained a consistent high turnover style. In the third quarter, there were six new stocks. Of course, from the attribute of heavy positions, the heavy positions of Haifutong stock were almost concentrated in the upper reaches of the new energy sector in the fourth quarter, Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) are lithium resource concept stocks. In the context of the global shift to green energy and China’s implementation of carbon neutralization strategy, the long-term high growth certainty of the new energy vehicle market is high, and the enterprises in the industrial chain are expected to continue to benefit. In the direction of the industrial chain, upstream resource manufacturers such as lithium carbonate will still occupy most of the profits of the industry in the whole industrial chain.
The change direction of heavy positions is relatively consistent with the past layout of products. The fund mainly selects companies with high growth in the subdivided industries according to the dynamic changes of the industry and the factors such as large marginal momentum and large space. Then in the new energy sector, according to the trend and sustainability of lithium carbonate and other prices, The profit cashing degree and range of upstream resource companies may still be high.
On the whole, the online red label of the fund or fund manager is not a good thing for investors. In addition to the performance, whether the investment style of the product is stable and clear and whether it matches itself is more important. In view of the fact that most of the above funds invest in industries with high prosperity and core technology assets and do not take the initiative to choose the time, it requires investors to have a certain sense of time and space, sensitivity and even a belief. In fact, it is not very suitable for novices. Under the relatively clear technology cycle in the future, we should also avoid too short holding cycle and excessive trading loss as far as possible.
