Finally, I know why A-Shares fell or didn’t rise on the 25th. After the 1000 point v of US stocks, on the 25th, the opening didn’t hold up and collapsed again. The Dow once fell 800 points, but soon V came back! It turned out that this is the predicted market of a shares. First, the sharp decline of U.S. stocks was calculated. It is estimated that it can barely make a red market on the 26th!
U.S. stocks once plunged 800 points
On the 25th, after the opening of US stocks, the decline of the three major indexes expanded. The Dow once fell more than 800 points and the NASDAQ once fell 3%. However, people have to admire that as of press time, there was another V-shaped reversal! But how about the closing time? Let’s wake up and observe.
Analysts believe that the intraday decline of US stocks on Monday was due to soaring inflation, disappointing earnings, anxiety about the expected policy change of the Federal Reserve, concerns about the rapid deterioration of relations between Russia and Ukraine, and the market uncertainty caused by the continuation of covid-19 epidemic, which led to a sharp sell-off of US stocks.
Nevertheless, Dan eye, chief investment officer of Fort Pitt capital group in Pittsburgh, said on Monday that he thought the US stock market was performing normally, but investors had not yet adapted after such a long bull market. “What we see is normal volatility. As the Fed’s focus shifts to curbing inflation, we will see more volatility and pullback in the stock market than in the past two years,” he said
According to the Wall Street Journal, Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia at JPMorgan asset management, said the volatile trading showed that investors were facing a dilemma. He said that some investors expect the fed to raise interest rates four times this year, and they are worried about the impact on higher priced stocks; But they are still very optimistic about the economic outlook.
Beginning on Wednesday, US Eastern time, Fed officials will discuss the path of monetary policy at a two-day meeting, including how to reduce the nearly $9 trillion bond portfolio. The market expects that Fed chairman Powell will use his post meeting comments on Wednesday to lay the foundation for the interest rate hike cycle.
In addition, on the 24th local time, the Biden administration said it was considering sending more US troops to Eastern Europe, and up to 8500 soldiers were on high alert. According to Reuters and Russia’s Moscow Times, the Russian Kremlin responded on the 25th, expressing “great concern” and condemning the US move as aggravating tensions in Ukraine.
“The United States is exacerbating tensions,” Peskov, press secretary of the Russian President, said on the 25th. “We are paying close attention to these actions of the United States.”
It is reported that Peskov also reiterated the Russian position that the current tension in Ukraine is caused by the actions of the United States and NATO, not Russia.
According to previous reports, with regard to the move of the United States to send U.S. troops to Europe, U.S. Secretary of defense Austin has issued an order to prepare for deployment in accordance with Biden’s instructions. The relevant decision-making process has reached the final stage, but the final decision has not been made.
Recently, the relationship between Ukraine and Russia has accelerated, and the two sides have deployed a large number of military personnel and equipment in the border areas of the two countries. The United States, Ukraine and NATO claim that Russia has the potential of “invasion” near the eastern border of Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly denied this, emphasizing that NATO activities threaten Russia’s border security and that Russia has the right to mobilize troops within its territory to defend its territory.
how can I get behind a shares?
back to a shares, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) analysis said that the emotional impact of external risks on A-Shares is coming to an end!
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that the general sharp decline of A-Shares on the 25th was mainly restrained by the risk appetite of peripheral risk events, which was reflected in three aspects: ① the tension and escalation of conflict in Russia and Ukraine, and the fear of war cast a shadow on market sentiment; ② The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting is imminent, and the market is worried about the accelerated tightening of monetary policy; ③ Overseas stock markets fluctuated sharply or generally fell sharply. Overseas risk events suppressed the weak sentiment of superimposed a shares, resulting in a sharp decline.
According to Hua’an’s analysis, the continuous decline of A-Shares since the beginning of the year is mainly due to two factors: one is the expected gap in the market in the progress of the implementation of steady growth measures in the first half of the month; the other is the weak trend and continuous decline of US stocks under the concern of global currency shift, which has restrained global risk appetite. At present, the concern of the first factor has been alleviated with the unexpected interest rate cut of the whole chain of omo-mlf-lpr-slf and the statement of intensive and stable growth of the decision-making level in the middle of the month, while the second factor is gradually coming to an end with the accelerated risk release of US stocks in the near future. On the one hand, the impact of regional conflicts on emotions will be quickly vented; Second, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates has been digested in the market in advance; According to the statistics of the decline range of US stocks in history, in addition to the deep adjustment of US stocks under the sustained economic collapse and the unexpected interest rate cut (more than 20%), the decline of US stocks in other cases is usually up to 10%. Since the current round of US stock decline, NASDAQ has fallen nearly 12%, S & P 500 has fallen nearly 8% and Dow Jones industrial index has fallen nearly 6%, which has basically reached the adjustment step. Therefore, we expect that with the end of the adjustment of US stocks and the elimination of the impact of external risk appetite, A-Shares are still expected to usher in a restless rebound in spring with the support of stable growth policy.
According to the analysis of people’s livelihood strategy, the risk is accelerated under the catalyst. the “Ukraine” incident is the catalyst, and the underlying logical chain has never changed: first, the upward trend of overseas capital cost has led to the suppression of the valuation of global growth stocks, less suppression of value stocks, and some more undervalued assets have even formed a “safe haven” in the early stage, which has formed a resonance all over the world; Second, after the epidemic, anti globalization has become a trend, and the instability of the supply chain has become the norm. Under the long-term trends such as energy transformation and demographic factors, it will further reduce efficiency and increase inflationary pressure, which in turn will push up interest rates. Third, we also need to objectively admit that due to the “time lag” between credit easing and demand recovery, it also takes time for the improvement of the molecular end of value stocks to bring absolute benefits, but we think the direction is certain.
Minsheng strategy said that since last weekend, market investors began to focus on the rebound opportunities of mainstream tracks. However, we have also discussed many times that the characteristics of the bottom in history often require the gradual decline of market volatility, otherwise it will usher in a greater pullback. The current problem is that in the absence of broad credit to support the expansion of residents’ balance sheet to promote the new products issued by institutions, the fund’s heavy warehouse stocks will fall into the dilemma of stock trading, and the track style of the past three years faces the risk of “infection” in the withdrawal process of mainstream heavy warehouse stocks in this environment. In short, since public funds hold a large number of stocks accounting for more than 9% of the net value, when the decline of heavy positions in one sector causes the heavy positions in another sector to rise to the upper limit, the fund can only choose to reduce its positions passively, resulting in the coordinated decline between heavy positions. According to the data of heavy positions in the fourth quarter, the scale of such funds accounts for about 5% of the total. The good news is that more than 30% of the “strong and sharp falling stocks” in the early stage have entered the historical stabilization range of {- 50%, – 25%}, and the “contagion risk” has been partially priced.
Bless a shares, and finally show you some jokes to relieve your mood
