The four quarter of public fund ended in the end of the disclosure, and the Baijiu board holdings of fund managers surfaced.
Securities Times reporter found that during the fourth quarter, many star funds reduced Baijiu shares, YF Fonda fund manager Zhang Kun, Shun Shun the Great Wall fund manager Liu Yanchun, investment fund manager Hou Hao and other “top flow” to its heavily loaded Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and so on have different degrees of reduction.
Baijiu Baijiu has rebounded to varying degrees during the fourth quarter, but star fund managers keep step with each other, or cause market worries about the liquor market. In response, analysts pointed out that since the fourth quarter, sporadic sporadic distribution of the epidemic, or affect the fund managers’ judgment of the Baijiu industry, but under the normalization of prevention and control, it is expected that the time and degree of impact may be narrowing, and liquor companies’ “start a good job” still has a high degree of certainty.
The scale of fell below 100 billion
Liu Yanchun reduces Baijiu shares
On January 24, all the four seasons reports of six funds managed by Liu Yanchun were released. According to the statistics of the securities times, as of the fourth quarter of 2021, the total scale of funds under Liu Yanchun’s management was 97.85 billion yuan, falling below the 100 billion mark.
It is worth noting that the scale of Liu Yanchun’s management shrank by 13.386 billion yuan to 102.915 billion yuan in the third quarter of last year after reaching 116.301 billion yuan in the second quarter of last year. In the fourth quarter of last year, Liu Yanchun’s management scale shrank again by 5.065 billion yuan to 97.85 billion yuan.
By product, the emerging growth scale of Jingshun Great Wall shrank the most, from 52.47 billion yuan in the third quarter to 51.694 billion yuan, and the scale shrank by 2.576 billion yuan in a single quarter. The decline in performance and the redemption of the fund by Jimin are the main reasons for the decline in its scale. Data show that last year, the growth of the Great Wall’s new growth deficit of 9.94%, of which 13.04% in the second half, and fourth quarter in the Baijiu stock rebound, the fund is still a loss of 1.44%.
At the same time, Jingshun Great Wall emerging growth was also redeemed by Jimin. The data show that during the fourth quarter, the total subscription share of the fund was 2.437 billion, the total redemption share was 3.073 billion, and the net redemption was 637 million.
As the largest fund product managed by Liu Yanchun, the new grew in the four quarter of the new century, and its Baijiu holdings such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other liquor stocks were reduced, with the largest reduction in Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , reaching 21.31%.
However, after a large reduction, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is still the largest heavy position stock of the fund. At the end of the fourth quarter, the stock market value reached 5.046 billion yuan, accounting for 9.76% of the net value of the fund.
For the market operation in 2021, Liu Yanchun said that in 2021, the economy surged and fell due to factors such as credit crunch, repeated epidemic and industrial policy adjustment. Covid-19 epidemic has a significant impact on various industries. The supply-demand relationship of some industrial chains is unbalanced at different stages, and the supply contraction caused by the superposition of the dual control policy of energy consumption has significantly increased the cost pressure in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. New energy related fields encouraged by policies are rare industries with high prosperity.
Looking ahead, Liu Yanchun believes that 2022 is the beginning of the end of covid-19 epidemic. From a global perspective, the investment side lagging behind the recovery of consumption is expected to gradually return to normal. In the early stage, China made full use of the time window of rapid increase in export share to reduce macro leverage, adjust economic structure and digest long-term risks, laying a good foundation for sustainable economic development in the post epidemic era. At this stage, China’s economic growth is already below the potential growth rate. It is expected that broadening credit, stabilizing growth and boosting domestic demand will be the policy focus of this year.
From cross cycle to counter cycle, from external demand to boosting domestic demand, the marginal boom will no longer be scarce, the funds will tend to be scattered, and the market style will be rebalanced. Those excellent companies with short-term headwinds have great investment value. The short-term boom fluctuation affects investors’ risk preference periodically, and has little impact on the internal value of the company. What’s more, with the gradual force of the counter cyclical policy, the downward cycle is expected to end and usher in an upward turning point, and many industries will usher in a boom reversal. Industries and companies with long-term and short-term logical resonance are expected to usher in good performance in the new year.
Finally, Liu Yanchun comforted investors that the most difficult stage of investment has passed. Be patient and value will always return.
Hou Hao substantial reduction of Baijiu
In the three quarter of last year, Hou Hao, who was still attacking the Baijiu in large quantities, entered the four quarter. The style suddenly reversed and a large number of Baijiu stocks were reduced.
Hou Hao management of the business card index Baijiu Investment Index Fund released four seasons report shows that Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) and other Baijiu stocks reduced by over 20%, of which Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) reduction is more than 30%.
At the end of the fourth quarter, Hou Hao managed the CSI Baijiu investment index fund holding Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other market capitalization of over 10 billion, but it has significantly reduced compared with the end of the three quarter.
As for the operation idea of the fund, Hou Hao said that the social zero data of the whole year has been repaired, and the consumption of food and beverage, especially tobacco and alcohol, has increased. During the reporting period, Baijiu has increased, and some of the high-end products have been performing well. Structural differentiation has taken place. The market has different responses to the price system and some disturbing factors, which has led to some time fluctuations. The benchmark index of Baijiu index rose 5.79% in the reporting period. With regard to the operation of the fund, a certain position proportion has been maintained, dividends have been paid, and the tracking of the benchmark has been basically completed.
Hou Hao pointed out that the current epidemic situation is approaching the Spring Festival, especially in the key areas of Baijiu consumption in Henan, Shaanxi and Tianjin. It is expected that the Spring Festival will have a certain impact on the sales of Spring Festival. From the perspective of consumption scenarios, it mainly affects banquet consumption, but there is expected to make up for it in the future, and with reference to the Spring Festival in the previous two years, it has a limited impact on the sales of famous wines.
Hou Hao said that according to the channel tracking, the wholesale price of high-end liquor remains stable, the rhythm of payment collection in the Spring Festival is good, and the fundamentals are still relatively positive. The head company has stronger resilience in terms of channel control and risk regulation, the structural growth certainty of famous and high-quality liquor enterprises is strong, and the crowding out effect of the industry will continue.
Looking to the future, Hou Hao said that it is necessary to track the epidemic prevention and control in the short term, as well as the volume and price near the peak season. After recent adjustment, Baijiu sector valuation has dropped to a reasonable allocation interval, and the consumption stability is expected to be stronger under the steady economic growth. The time stretch shows that the Baijiu sector still has better allocation value under the trend of upgrading consumption and concentration.
Baijiu shares still have opportunities?
Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu, the liquor stocks have been adjusted since the beginning of last year. The adjustment of some high-end liquor stocks is more obvious. After entering the fourth quarter of 2021, Baijiu stocks rebounded, but with the sporadic distribution of the epidemic, the market is worried about the consumption of liquor or the influence of liquor stocks.
In this regard, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the result of point recurrence of the epidemic is differentiation rather than comprehensive impact. From the perspective of price, the demand toughness of high-end commerce and gifts is the strongest, which is expected to maintain steady growth. The overall inventory level of the secondary high-end is low and the dynamic sales performance is good. From the scene, the biggest impact of epidemic prevention and control lies in large-scale drinking. Under the trend of miniaturization of drinking, the basic sector of moving sales is still smooth.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that under the normalization of prevention and control, the expected impact time and degree may be reduced. The recurrence of the epidemic in Henan has little impact on Zhengzhou, the main consumer market. Under the turning point of prevention and control, the final impact is expected to remain within 10%, and a good foundation is laid for the low inventory in the early stage. Pre Baijiu sector adjustment after the valuation level has been significantly digested, has entered the configuration interval.
Huachuang securities also said that in the short term, the impact of the epidemic tends to be passivated, the high-end liquor at the dynamic sales end is stable, the sub high-end, especially the regional leaders, has a better performance, there are many highlights in some regions and brands, the liquor enterprises still have a high certainty of a good start, and the performance will still be supported. The recent decline in sector valuation has reached a good opportunity for layout.
Specifically, Huachuang Securities believes that Maotai’s income acceleration is highly deterministic, and the market-oriented reform is expected to continue to land, with prominent long-term value. Fenjiu Xinshuai is expected to continue the reform direction, hit the key points of brand improvement, and the high growth is still sustainable. The morale inside and outside the old cellar is booming, and the national cellar brand is likely to drive high growth. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 1000 yuan high-end brand barrier escorts the growth certainty, and pays attention to the stock price catalyst brought by the promotion of equity incentive.
Liu Gesong, Feng Mingyuan and Li Xiaoxing are holding positions, cutting new energy and reading the bottom Baijiu, firmly optimistic about high-end manufacturing.
Zhu Shaoxing four seasons: maintain high warehouse position and increase high-end Baijiu, electronics and medicine stocks.
The number one heavy position stock of the fund is still Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . By the end of the fourth quarter, 1715 funds had a market value of 180.5 billion yuan
